Two Toss-Ups

Hot races abound … Asking Congress and God for election help … And don’t brush and drive.

Arizona voters will elect nine members of Congress in November. 

But only two of them are really question marks. 

We don’t mean to be dismissive of all the candidates who have no shot of winning their races in most of Arizona’s politically lopsided districts. But the fact is, in most of Arizona’s congressional districts, one candidate has almost no shot. 

On paper, four of Arizona’s congressional districts are technically within reach for either party. 

But in reality, failing any earth-shattering external factors, the outcomes of all but two races are pretty much decided. The incumbents — or the nominees from the parties with the overwhelming advantage in the district — will almost certainly win. 

Today, we’re diving into the campaigns for Arizona’s Congressional District 1 and Congressional District 6. 

Unlike our guide to the state House and Senate races, we won’t be rating the competitive congressional races because both are true toss-ups. 

But for what it’s worth, Cook Political Report ranks them both as Republican-leaning toss-ups.

This district anchored in Paradise Valley is a perfect example of “fiscally conservative but socially liberal.” Voters here rejected Donald Trump in 2020, but still reelected Republican Rep. David Schweikert, despite his then-ongoing ethics investigation.  

Schweikert has represented the area for a dozen years, fending off challenges from a string of well-funded and organized Democrats, including but not limited to Jevin Hodge (2022),¹ Hiral Tipirneni (2020) and Anita Malik (2018).

But Amish Shah, a doctor and former state lawmaker, may represent Democrats’ best chance yet of winning the seat. 

At the Capitol, Shah was so far to the center that some of his fellow Democrats wanted to gently nudge him out of the caucus. And during the Democratic primary, Shah’s opponents questioned his commitment to Democratic ideals. 

All of which makes him a great Democratic candidate for CD1. 

Shah isn’t starting his campaign from scratch — his legislative district overlaps with CD1, and he has also proven himself an adept fundraiser, pulling in more than $1.2 million in the Democratic primary. 

But Schweikert is a longtime incumbent and a member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee in Congress. Money will not be a problem — he had already raised more than double what Shah had as of July.² And Schweikert hardly had to spend any of that to fend off his two GOP challengers in the primary. 

Southern Arizona’s 6th Congressional District has flipped party hands every other election cycle since Gabby Giffords last represented the area in 2012.³

This year’s match is actually a rematch — Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani is once again facing Democratic former lawmaker Kirsten Engel, who lost the 2022 race by fewer than 6,000 votes. And rematches have a history of working here — it took Martha McSally two tries to win this east Tucson-based district.

Engel is leading the fundraising race as of the July campaign finance reports. And while Ciscomani had almost $2.7 million on hand as of July, Engel had racked up a $3.2 million war chest. 

But holding a seat is always easier, and cheaper, than flipping a seat. 

Republicans hold a slight voter registration advantage in the district, and Ciscomani has the power of incumbency on his side. Not to mention no shortage of national Republican allies willing to invest to keep him in the seat. 

Ciscomani is focusing his campaign on his background as an immigrant and his emphasis on securing the border, which he hopes will be voters’ top issue in November.

Engel’s campaign has been hammering Ciscomani for his pro-life votes and stances, hoping that with abortion on the ballot in November, they can tap into that initiative’s broad popularity to oust the incumbent.

Money, prayers and HOA violations: Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes joined Michigan’s secretary of state to tell a U.S. congressional committee they need more money to upgrade voting systems and improve election security amid increasing threats against election workers, per the Associated Press. Meanwhile, leaders from seven Christian denominations met at a church in Paradise Valley to pray for peace during the election season, KJZZ’s Camryn Sanchez reports. And a Quail Creek resident was forced to remove a sign in his yard that said "Vote to make America Decent, Honorable and Kind Again,” or pay a $250 fine to the property owners association, Green Valley News’ Kim Smith writes. Another neighbor has apparently been allowed to keep up a "Make America Great Again" banner.

“(Underfund) highways and dams and railroads and see what happens,” Fontes said. “We implore you, please consider, if this is such a big deal and if it is so important that we continue to have free, fair and secure elections, fund them.”

Supreme stakes: Only two of Arizona’s entirely Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices are up for retention votes in November, but the Phoenix New Times' TJ L'Heureux took a deep dive into all seven justices as Proposition 137 could end voters’ ability to get rid of them in the future. Last year, each justice earned at least $205,000, and the story’s packed with other fun facts, like that Vice Chief Justice John Lopez IV was a legal advisor in Iraq for the prosecution of Saddam Hussein.

Staying away is free: Former Arizona Democratic Rep. Leezah Sun has to pay $18,000 in attorneys fees after challenging Tolleson city officials' restraining order against her, but the resigned lawmaker told the court she’s destitute, per the Republic’s Ray Stern. Sun left the Legislature in January amid an ethics probe into allegations she threatened to kill a lobbyist, and said in a court filing she’s broke because an autoimmune disease is keeping her from working and Sun stopped receiving child support after her kid turned 18.

Proof problems: Fontes wants Attorney General Kris Mayes to tell election officials how to enforce a new election law that requires proof of citizenship for state voter registration forms, which the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled can go into effect, the Arizona Mirror’s Jerod MacDonald-Evoy reports. It’s unclear if county recorders can check for citizenship status and what the deadlines for providing citizenship proof are. At the request of Republican Sen. John Kavanagh, Mayes’ office is also tasked with investigating Surprise’s policy for public speakers that led to the arrest of a woman criticizing a city official at a meeting last month.

Election law isn’t always clear, but our mission is. We provide much-needed insight into Arizona’s political landscape. And we need your help to keep doing it.

Empty seats: The commission charged with referring legislators’ pay raises to voters hasn’t had a full membership of appointees from the governor, House speaker, Senate president and Arizona Supreme Court chief justice in years, Axios’ Jeremy Duda writes. Arizonans last raised legislators’ pay to $24,000 in 1998, and while voters rarely approve raises, Hobbs and Chief Justice Robert Brutinel haven’t appointed people to the commission that refers legislative pay raises to the ballot.

Bipartisan confrontation: Gov. Katie Hobbs is asking California Gov. Gavin Newsom to reconsider his support of a proposal to bring down California gas prices by increasing its refinery inventory over concerns it would raise gas prices in Arizona, the Republic’s Stacey Barchenger writes. Hobbs sent the request in a letter with Nevada’s Republican Gov. Joseph Lombardo.

You subscribers always have the best questions. And we love answering them! (When we know the answer.) 

We had to dig deep into our notes to reply to this question from subscriber and North Carolinian Whitney Barkley. 

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The Pinal County Sheriff’s Office’s YouTube account has made so much money that its board of supervisors established an account solely for the funds, Mark Cowling reports for the Casa Grande Dispatch. The channel has amassed $55,000 and is estimated to earn $10,000 per month.

But what kind of government content is bringing in that much cash?

Turns out, most of the videos are a “Fridays with Frank” series featuring ride-a-longs with Deputy Frank Sloup. Episode 103, “Man up & Swallow,” has more than 629,000 views and shows Sloup pulling someone over for speeding while brushing his teeth.

The teeth-brusher got two tickets but thanked the deputy for not shooting him.

“I try not to shoot people who don’t need shooting,” Sloup responded.

1. This was pre-scandal, when he was still viewed as a rising star.

2. Yeah, the latest campaign finance report is from July. Silly, right?

3. We’re including CD6’s predecessor, the old Congressional District 8.