President Donald Trump’s approval rating is in the toilet.
His Iran War has backfired, fuel prices are through the roof and Republicans are desperate to distance themselves from the president.
Conventional wisdom would have it that Democrats dominate next week’s election — particularly in a swing state like Arizona.
But early ballot return data as of Monday — compiled by Republican analysis firm Data Orbital — isn’t telling that story.
Overall, early voting turnout is (proportionally speaking) just about where it was in 2022, the last cycle when many of the same positions that are up for grabs now were on the ballot.
But interestingly, Republicans are turning in early ballots at a proportionally higher rate than they did in 2022.
While Democrats had a 2.6% return advantage eight days before the last midterm election, this year, they’re just about even with Republicans, who actually have a slim 0.1% advantage.
Ballot return rates over the years, per Data Orbital
The typical pattern from the last couple of cycles (excluding 2024) has been as follows: Democrats jump out to an early lead in returned ballots, then Republicans slowly muscle back and even the gap with a strong Election Day.
But this year, the two parties are already even.
That’s likely because the number of registered Republican voters is up compared to 2022, while the number of Democratic voters is lower. (Meanwhile, the number of registered independent voters has increased by quite a bit more — which we’ll get into later.)
So, if a blue wave is coming, it hasn’t crested yet.
And George Khalaf, the founder of Data Orbital and a Republican House candidate for Legislative District 3, thinks the yet-to-be-returned ballots might fall to Republicans.
“I can tell you, of those who are very likely to vote, there are significantly more Republicans left than Democrats — both in terms of who requested a ballot and who did not request a ballot,” Khalaf told us.
So Khalaf thinks Republicans will continue to increase their return advantage.
Democratic political strategist Sam Almy, who also tracks early ballot returns, sees that same contraction in Dems’ early vote share.
Ballot returns as of yesterday, per Almy’s dashboard
But he believes that Republicans’ stronger showing in early voting could be the result of a change in voting habits rather than a spike of new voters.
If that’s the case, Republicans’ typically strong Election Day surge won’t be what it was in previous cycles.
“I see that almost 41,000 Republicans have decided that, instead of voting on Election Day, they’re gonna vote early. So, they’ve shifted their vote timing,” Almy told us, adding that only 22,000 Democrats have changed their voting habits in the same way.
That would mean the early voting patterns we’ve seen in recent cycles are changing a bit this year.
But there are two other variables to account for: which way the increased share of independent voters will break, and what portion of registered non-MAGA Republicans will defy their party and vote for Democrats.
Independent registration has jumped by nearly 200,000 voters since 2022, and their votes will likely be the deciding factor in many of the statewide races and competitive congressional or legislative battles. (During that same time, Democrats’ registration has fallen by 50,000 and Republicans’ has increased by 70,000.)
The early ballot advantage comparison doesn’t account for the independents — who politicos generally surmise are more likely to vote for Democrats this cycle, given Trump’s unpopularity and economic conditions.
And a poll released yesterday by political consulting firm HighGround, which is run by former McCain operatives like Chuck Coughlin, puts the major Democratic statewide candidates more than 10 points up in their races.
Dems’ dominance in the poll can be partly explained by an estimate that about 10% of Republicans will vote for the Democrats in the top three statewide races — governor, secretary of state and attorney general.
That projection — if it reflects how things are actually about to go — would make for a shocking turn of events and render Republicans’ relatively strong early ballot showing obsolete.
Why not a nice, round $100,000?: The drama continues at Cartwright School District, which recently hired GOP political consultant Sam Stone, a top aide to Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap, through a $99,000 contract to do … something, per 12News’ Brahm Resnik. According to the vague statement from the district’s acting superintendent, Stone is a consultant hired “to give Cartwright an experienced outside perspective on how we operate.” We’ve covered how the district operates under board president and Democratic lame-duck lawmaker Lydia Hernandez too many times to include every link that we have in today’s edition, but in summary, it’s a total shitshow. Stone’s $99,000 contract seems specifically designed to get around a public vote by the school board, which is a requirement for any contract of $100,000 or more. The contract runs through June of next year, though we have a feeling Stone won’t be consulting that long. That’s because Hernandez and one of her allies on the board are both up for election this year, and they face stiff challenges from former board member Marissa Hernandez and newcomer Pedro Paredes.
Even the rich are struggling: In one of Arizona’s wealthiest (and most competitive) congressional districts, the cost of living skyrocketed from 2019 to 2024, per the Washington Post’s number crunching. Voters in Congressional District 1, based in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and affluent neighborhoods of Phoenix, have seen the cost of living for a family of four jump by about $30,000 in those years to $107,000. Meanwhile, the median household income was only $99,000 as of 2024. And CD1 is just one of the many competitive congressional districts where income growth failed to keep up with the cost of living — most of which are represented by Republicans.
“I would like to see the people who are immiserating our country punished, because they have gotten away with making our lives worse,” Brian Nadon, a CD1 voter who was out of work for a year, told the Post.
Speaking of “competitive” districts: Congressional District 2, which covers large swaths of rural northeastern Arizona, is seeing an infusion of last-minute spending as Democrats expand their ambitions heading into the November election, Axios Phoenix’s Jeremy Duda reports. However, most of that spending is coming from Republican groups suddenly backing the previously “safe” incumbent, as KTAR’s David Iversen notes. CD2 has been solidly Republican since it was redrawn in the last redistricting cycle, and Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane easily defeated former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez in 2024. But Democrats have become more optimistic in this year’s rematch (which we covered last month as a long shot for Nez), since the Cook Political Report shifted the district’s rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
It’s not about sports: Arizona is one of five states with a trans girls in sports ban on the ballot this year, the Washington Post reports, making the 2026 election the first time that “such a wide pool of voters, almost 20 million, will be asked to weigh in directly on issues affecting transgender youth.” The story focuses on Washington state’s initiative, which goes further than Arizona’s Prop 318, and “would require all girls participating in sports to undergo a genital exam to verify their biological sex.” It’s worth pointing out, once again, that Prop 318 is not about trans kids in sports — we already have a law for that. The measure’s actual impact would be banning trans children from using restrooms, locker rooms and other private spaces that don’t align with the sex on their birth certificates.
We’re number 1: Faith leaders held a press conference at the Arizona Capitol on Monday to support election workers, roughly a third of whom say they have experienced threats, harassment or abuse because of their jobs, ABC15’s Elenee Dao reports. But the thing that caught our eye from the round of news coverage of the event was this stat from the Mirror’s Gloria Rebecca Gomez.
“Arizona … is no stranger to election threats. Since 2022, the DOJ has pursued and won convictions in 12 cases involving threats against election workers. Half of them were based in Arizona.”
The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is the state’s only official, nonpartisan voter education resource — created by Arizona voters for voters.
We publish the voter education guide, host the debates, and break down what’s on your ballot. Not who you should vote for — what you need to know before you do.
Get the facts at AZCleanElections.gov.
Former Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda told us earlier this year that she keeps an arsenal of crystals on hand, including an emerald “power stone,” in case anyone tries to bug her.
But when the bad energy arrives via Twitter, Swoboda has a different approach.
Yesterday, conservative activist Merissa Caldwell accused Swoboda of sabotaging Kari Lake’s last two campaigns, to which the crystal-wearing Queens native replied:
“GTFOOH (that is, get the fuck out of here) with that trash you grifter clown.”
