Two years ago, Democrat and former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez lost his race for Congress by a nine-point margin.
But this year, he’s back to take a second crack at incumbent Republican Congressman Eli Crane — and both Nez and national Democrats are saying he can actually win.
Is that a realistic outlook?
Or is it just quixotic campaign bluster?
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District comprises more than half of the state’s land mass, making it roughly the size of Georgia. It covers the northeast section of the map, five counties, portions of four other counties and 14 of the state’s 22 federally recognized tribes. It nearly touches Arizona’s western border with Nevada and wraps an arm into Casa Grande, below the southern part of the Phoenix metro area.
Simply put, it is massive.
Congressional District 2
Since redistricting altered its makeup, it’s gone from being an evenly split district represented by Democrat Tom O’Halleran to leaning heavily Republican. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024, and the MAGA congressman Crane won by nine points.
But Nez — a soft-spoken, sturdy, bespectacled man with neatly side-slicked, jet-black hair — interprets his own 2024 margin of loss as evidence that he’s more popular with voters in the district than national Democrats.
And a recent poll (paid for by the Nez campaign) shows the Democrat running neck and neck with Crane — which is primarily explained by Nez carrying a 22-point advantage among independent voters fed up with the Trump administration and, by extension, the MAGA movement.
The prediction markets are, shall we say, less bullish on Nez’s odds.
Even so, that poll is the latest bit of news that’s getting Arizona Democrats, like U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego, genuinely hyped up about the race.
Gallego joined Nez in Prescott over the weekend to fire up Democratic organizers — and while we were waiting for Nez to arrive from his weekly Sunday Baptist worship service, we spoke with the senator about the race.
“I think (Crane) just hasn’t met the moment,” Gallego told us in Prescott on Sunday, arguing the congressman’s support of Trump’s economic policies will be a liability. “When you cut Medicaid in rural Arizona, you are really, really making huge impacts, and I think we can’t also ignore the fact that food stamps (being cut) are probably having a bigger impact, too.”
Jonathan Nez and Ruben Gallego speaking to Democratic organizers in Prescott on Sunday
Trump’s favorability rating is at a historic low after engaging America in a costly, aimless war against Iran, overseeing a rise in fuel and food prices and mishandling the (non?)release of the Epstein files.
“The independents moved for Trump and Crane in the last election. And now there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse, so they’re welcoming us,” Nez told us in a sit-down interview after meeting with organizers. “And even some Republicans are asking us to introduce ourselves in various communities, so that’s what we’ve been doing.”
Crane, a former Navy SEAL who got into politics with Trump’s backing, has remained loyal to the unpopular president, going so far as to completely change his platform in order to avoid indirectly criticizing Trump.
As the Iran War drags on, he wiped his campaign website of language opposing unnecessary, drawn-out American military campaigns, the Arizona Mirror reported last week.
“Instead of funding forever wars and throwing away money we don’t have, Eli believes we should be focused on taking care of those who risked it all for our freedom,” Crane’s website read as recently as July.
Now, Crane has redirected his political stance against “fraud-ridden nongovernmental organizations.”
His campaign did not respond to our questions, including about whether or not this development means Crane now supports “forever wars.”
Clearly, the congressman is in an extremely uncomfortable position — and his own contortion act is unlikely to score points with the independents who represent a growing portion of the electorate.
Once an outsider to the D.C. establishment, Crane has now been around long enough to be reasonably portrayed as part of it — though Nez is taking jabs at Crane’s job performance and ostensible lack of influence on Capitol Hill, especially as the feds cut Arizona’s annual Colorado River allocation by around 25%.
“I think what my opponent has failed to do is to be a part of these discussions about our water from the Colorado River,” Nez said. “Congress is not on-the-job training, and my opponent is trying to figure these things out — and he’s in his third year now. He campaigned on draining the swamp. He just became the swamp.”
And during the Democratic event over the weekend in Prescott, Nez and other politicos relentlessly criticized Crane for living in Oro Valley, which is not in CD2. It’s becoming a major talking point for organizers. (It’s worth noting that congressional representatives aren’t required to live in their district — just the state that district is in.)
If you zoom in, you can see the “Crane lives here” arrow on that map
Having gone through the motions of running for Congress once already, Nez might be in a better position as a candidate. At the very least, his name recognition is stronger in the district as a result.
But it’s still a huge uphill battle, and his path depends on some optimistic assumptions. One is a strong turnout in the Navajo Nation and other tribal jurisdictions. If elected, Nez would be the first Indigenous person to represent Arizona in Congress.
He’s also been tuned into the district’s independent-spirited electorate, who he says are seeing politics in a less partisan light than in years past. This year, the theme of a class divide between the political ruling class and average people is much more prevalent in politics, Nez and other Democrats believe.
“I mean, the elites are making it hard on us. They’re making record profits. They’re the ones that are investing in the stock market — because they can,” Nez said. “They’re getting wealthier and wealthier while the people in this country are feeling the pain from the downturn in the economy. And that’s where the frustration is all across this district.”
With all these factors in play, Dems argue that if ever there were a time for a Democrat to flip CD2, it would be now, while the political headwinds are blowing hard against Crane.
Republican politicos, on the other hand, have plenty of doubt their reliably red district will flip.
Several other polls have projected a strong advantage for Crane, including one conducted just a few days before the Nez campaign’s internal poll that put Crane up by 11 points.
And while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the official campaign arm run by the U.S. House of Representatives’ Democrats — placed Nez in its “Red to Blue” program of competitive races in February, it hasn’t spent any money on Nez.
DCCC spokesperson Lindsay Reilly said that the organization’s leaders “haven’t ruled out” giving financial support to Nez, but so far they’ve mostly offered messaging guidance and other help on his campaign.
And it’s unlikely that House Majority PAC, another national political war chest controlled by Democrats’ House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, will spend any money on the race. It reserved almost $300 million but will have to raise a boatload of money to live up to those promises.
On top of those budgeting woes, the district’s sprawling size makes buying ads in it challenging and expensive, complicating the strategy and making it even more unlikely that Dems will throw money at the race.
So, if you’re following the money, it’s clear that flipping the district isn’t a priority for the big spenders — certainly much less so than CD1 and CD6, the swing districts held by Republicans in Scottsdale and Tucson that Democrats are targeting.
Ultimately, the fact that there’s discussion about whether Nez has a fighting chance at all says quite a bit about the onslaught Democrats are hoping for in November — but there’s too little reliable information to make the district a serious target.
And it’s worth noting that Democrats have an incentive to make the race seem close, even if they’re not putting institutional money into flipping the seat: The Navajo Nation is solidly blue, and any increase in voter turnout there helps juice statewide Democratic campaigns.
As well-positioned as Nez might be, winning CD2 remains a monumental task for the former president of the country’s largest tribal nation, and he probably won’t be getting any help from higher political powers.
Almost everything would have to go right for the Democrat, which makes the race the state’s best thermometer for taking rural and independent voters’ temperature on the MAGA movement.
Turning profits: A year after the assassination of its co-founder Charlie Kirk, Turning Point is raising more campaign money than ever, the Republic’s Laura Gersony and Stephanie Murray report. Its federal PAC has pulled in $9 million so far this year, and much of the group’s political operation runs through companies owned by Republican Sen. Jake Hoffman, a former Turning Point spokesperson and fake elector. His firms have collected more than $1 million in campaign spending this election cycle, including from Turning Point and candidates Hoffman endorsed.
The flockdown: Amid growing concerns about mass surveillance and law enforcement misuse, the number of Arizona communities canceling their Flock contracts has climbed to 11 — but Queen Creek is taking a different approach, KJZZ’s Taylor Griffith reports. The town is keeping its license plate readers while making knowing misuse of Flock data a misdemeanor and requiring at least one public audit of the program each year. And even as Arizona cities cancel their Flock contracts, privately owned cameras at places like Home Depot and Lowe’s can still feed data into Flock’s national law enforcement network, Lookout’s Quinn Quē reports.
The buck stops short: The highest-ranking Zipps manager prosecuted after January’s high-profile federal raids is Diego Gonzalez-Rosales, who gave investigators detailed accounts of how he says Zipps’ corporate office knowingly used fraudulent documents to employ undocumented workers, the Republic’s Daniel Gonzalez and Richard Ruelas report. Prosecutors called Gonzalez-Rosales a “key facilitator” but said he was “certainly not solely responsible.” Still, none of his alleged co-conspirators has been charged. The raids ultimately produced just four criminal prosecutions — Gonzalez-Rosales and three lower-level workers — and Gonzalez-Rosales is now awaiting deportation to Mexico.
Passing on the palooza: Republican CD1 hopeful Jay Feely is on board for “Trumpapalooza” in Dallas today, while other GOP candidates in competitive House districts, including U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, are skipping the event as some Republicans seek distance from President Donald Trump, per the Republic’s Laura Gersony. The first-ever Republican midterm convention doubles as a major fundraising and media opportunity as party leaders try to sharpen their message ahead of November.
If you didn’t get on the Trumpapalooza guest list, our subscriber list always has room.
Mapped: The Phoenix New Times mapped every Phoenix police shooting since 2019, finding 154 documented “critical incidents” concentrated in south and west Phoenix, particularly along the Interstate 17 corridor, Clarissa Sosin writes. None of the Phoenix officers involved in those incidents has faced criminal charges.
Conservative Arizona Twitter gets up to plenty of weird shenanigans.
But the latest bit is especially shameless.
Several right-wing accounts are circulating AI-generated images of Democratic Rep. Lorena Austin posing next to “Democrats for Biggs” signs, fabricating an endorsement of Republican gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs.
While Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has actual Republicans supporting her, Biggs’ allies have to deepfake some bipartisan endorsements. SAD!
One of the original posters appears to be Mary Ann Mendoza, who ran two unsuccessful campaigns as a Republican for a House seat in Austin’s Mesa-area Legislative District 9. Austin and Democratic Rep. Seth Blattman won both races.
There’s some history there.
During the 2022 campaign, Austin and Blattman called on Mendoza to drop out after photos surfaced appearing to show her wearing blackface in past Halloween costumes. And in 2020, Mendoza was yanked from the Republican National Convention lineup after sharing an antisemitic conspiracy theory on Twitter.
And while not all of the AI-generated posts are explicitly labeled as such, KJZZ’s Wayne Schutsky spotted one giveaway: The bizarre eagle and American flag tattoo situation on AI Austin doesn’t quite match Austin’s actual tattoos — which someone who frequents the Capitol would know.
Mendoza, after two unsuccessful legislative bids, hasn’t had that advantage.