The Daily Agenda: We can't find four votes
Several of you lawmakers owe us a phone call ... Mark Finchem voted by mail a lot ... And if only we could hibernate until December.
After Gov. Doug Ducey yesterday said that there aren’t enough votes at the Capitol to support repealing the recently reinstated pre-statehood law criminalizing abortion in Arizona, it got us thinking.
Are there really not four Republicans1 — two in the House, two in the Senate — willing to roll back the territorial-era law in favor of the more moderate ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy that lawmakers approved earlier this year?
The 15-week abortion ban is much closer to public sentiment than a full-blown abortion ban passed in 1864, and there could be moderate Republicans whose views (or at least their political prospects) align more with the newer law.
But it turns out that Ducey is probably right.
Every single Republican running for the state House or Senate (or statewide or federal office, for that matter) who filled out the election year survey from the Center for Arizona Policy, the state’s major pro-life lobby, stated that they support banning abortion in all cases except to save the life of the mother. Though a handful added in comments section that they would also support allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest, most used the notes to emphasize their pro-life bona fides by adding messages like “I oppose all forms of abortion, no exception!!!”
Still, there’s a difference between filling out a survey, potentially pre-Dobbs, saying you want to ban abortion, and campaigning on that issue in a purple state or district. Perhaps when faced with the reality of a post-Roe world, and a tough general election campaign, some Republicans may want to moderate their views.
So we spent the day calling relatively moderate Republican legislative candidates in tight general election races. We couldn’t find any who wanted to roll back the territorial law.
In fact, only Sen. J.D. Mesnard, a fiscal conservative with a more moderate social bent who’s running in a tight state Senate race, would talk. He said he and other Republican lawmakers knew exactly what they were voting for with the new law: a 15-week ban as long as Roe was in place and a reversion to the old law if it wasn’t.
“Now, could there be some clarification around the edges — like, what constitutes (an allowable exemption to save) the life of a mother? Sure,” he said. “But I'm a guy who believes that life begins at conception. I think all life is precious. I think life is a human right. And so that's the lens that I look at things through.”
Mesnard agreed it might be politically advantageous for him, in his purple district, to say his vote was only trying to roll back abortion access to before the 15-week mark. But a plain reading of the law would debunk that — the 15-week law is exceedingly clear that lawmakers didn’t intend to repeal any older laws on the books, he noted.
And even if Mesnard were willing to bend his beliefs for the sake of politics, he said, it would be a shortsighted move. Any Republican who votes to walk back the more stringent law now governing abortion in Arizona would surely get taken out in the next primary.
Given that factor alone, don’t expect to see any rush of support for a more moderate abortion law in Arizona coming from Republican lawmakers. Any changes to abortion law will have to come from the courts, an initiative in 2024 or a whole new regime at the state Capitol.
The voter file doesn’t lie: Republican Arizona secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem claims he votes in person and wants to end voting by mail, but his voter file shows that he voted by mail for nearly all elections until earlier this year, Substacker Dillon Rosenblatt reports. Finchem did some social media spiraling in response. (And look for the Finchem cameo in this New York Times story on increasing rhetoric about a “civil war” after the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago.)
From the mouths of babes: The 14-year-old girl who was temporarily denied medication to treat rheumatoid arthritis because the drug can be used in abortion spoke to KOLD’s Bud Foster and detailed how the medication allows her to live her life. She was able to get it after a 24-hour delay.
Politics is basically all stunts: Maricopa County responded to the lawsuit from the Republican National Committee over GOP poll workers yesterday by calling it a “political stunt” and “sound and fury about a public records request that was made a mere three business days ago.” Separately, the county has a new online “command center” for election information.
"The idea that a Republican Recorder and four Republican board members would try to keep Republicans out of elections is absurd,” the county said.
History for sale: Former Arizona Gov. Raúl Castro’s former home in Nogales could be put up for auction, his daughter, Beth Castro, says she was told by University of Arizona officials. This latest piece of news on the house comes after years of stalling on a plan to turn it into a border studies center, which appears unlikely to happen, KVOA reports.
It’s like the Maricopa County Republicans: Some board members of the Salt River Project censured some other board members of SRP over their opposition to a gas plant expansion in Coolidge, ABC15’s Courtney Holmes reports. The four censured members, who are clean energy supporters, had written a letter to the Arizona Corporation Commission saying they didn’t want the commission to reconsider its decision against green-lighting the plant expansion.
We wanna see Kari’s answers: The Republic’s Stacey Barchenger asked some policy questions of Arizona’s gubernatorial candidates to understand their vision for the state, but only Democrat Katie Hobbs responded. She cast the race as “between sanity and chaos” and gave Gov. Doug Ducey some props and some criticisms while laying out moderate policy positions she’d undertake if she wins. And Republic reporter Jimmy Jenkins asks candidates for Maricopa County Attorney how they’ll prosecute certain issues and run the office.
You knew it was coming: CBS News details how abortion access has risen as a top issue in the Arizona governor’s race, which includes the fact that former Republican lawmaker Heather Carter is now an independent because, she said, “the party has just moved beyond anything I recognize.” She and other Republicans and former Republicans have recently spoken out to urge fellow GOP voters to cross party lines, particularly in the U.S. Senate race, and vote for U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly over Republican Blake Masters.
Except they don’t send camera crews: Pew Research notes that despite all the outrage over Republican governors busing migrants out of their states, migrant help organizations have been doing it for years. And while other states are apparently misleading migrants and sending them to places they don’t want to go, Arizona’s buses, which serve food and carry medical professionals, is an example of doing it “the right way.”
Would be wild: Masters got a brief mention in Elon Musk’s texts that were revealed as part of Musk’s quest to take over Twitter (which is back on again). A friend texted Musk to suggest someone like Masters should be the head of enforcement if Musk takes over the social media platform, the New York Times reports.
Nobody loves the IRS: You might’ve seen some TV ads from Republicans targeting Kelly over the new hires at the Internal Revenue Service. Punchbowl News has some information and insight into where those ads are coming from and the reality behind the new IRS hires.
What isn’t fascism?: Republican candidate for Congressional District 2 Eli Crane writes an anti-Biden op-ed, saying Democrats are mostly running on painting the GOP as extremists instead of policy issues. He also compares vaccine mandates and COVID-19 lockdowns to fascism.
Even insurrectionists need to pay bills: Ten people from Arizona or with local ties have been charged for the Jan. 6 insurrection, and one group is working to help those with convictions find jobs after many of them have lost work and money because of their involvement in the Capitol riot, the Arizona Mirror’s Caitlin Sievers reports.
We don’t come from “mega rich” families. And just like Capitol rioters, we also need to pay the bills. Paid subscriptions are our only source of income here — no underwriters, ads or corporate overlords. Help us keep it that way.
You’re your own special interest: Arizona Daily Star columnist Tim Steller tells voters they should vote against the three legislative referrals on this year’s ballot that could curtail the citizen initiative process. By voting against the three measures, voters will protect their own political power, Steller argues.
Cow vs. wolf: U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran introduced a bill to fully reimburse ranchers for the costs of lost livestock they incur after a wolf attack, rather than reimbursing them 75%, the Copper Era reports. As the Mexican gray wolf population has grown since the federal government reintroduced the animals, ranchers have reported more livestock losses.
If you’re as sick of the midterms as we are, we suggest you take part in an enjoyable election: Fat Bear Week, put on by Katmai National Park in Alaska. Get caught up on the contenders from NPR and meet the bears on the National Park Service website, which includes photos of each bear shortly after they emerged from hibernation and after they beefed up this fall.
For the sake of argument, we’re assuming that every Democrat in the Legislature would support moving to a 15-week ban, given the alternative.
Excellent coverage and comment today