As independent reporters and political thought leaders,1 we often receive calls from national journalists asking for our insight, context or contacts for their “Arizona story.”
Mostly, they want to understand the mysterious mind of the average Arizona voter. Do Democrats hate Kyrsten Sinema? Can Arizona’s famously libertarian-leaning independent voting bloc stomach Ruben Gallego? Can Joe Biden once again beat Donald Trump?
“What are the issues motivating voters to go to the polls?” they ask.
We got one of those calls recently and did our best to provide some generalities. But to be honest, we haven’t spent a lot of time lately asking average Arizonans what it is they care about. (Of course, you, dear reader, are far from average. But we’d still like to hear more from you!)
We want to know how you feel about your own party, why you dislike about the opposition party, and where you might be willing to cross the aisle. Knowing what and how you think about these big-picture issues helps inform our reporting and the reporting of every national reporter who rings us up.
So today, Hank’s manning this discussion thread from 6 a.m. until 9 a.m. ish. Pop in and say hi! Drop us your thoughts and check out what your fellow readers think.
Here are some prompts to kick things off.
What political party do you usually2 support, how do you feel about its candidates right now, and what should they do differently?
What bothers or scares you the most about the opposition party?
Is there anything that would make you cross the political aisle? If so, who from the opposite party will you support in next year’s election and why?
Water, water, water. For example, it seems that Ducey was covering up the depletion of existing water resources, and we’ve read about the Colorado River—so how will our leaders handle this challenge (and the related one of climate change) for the next few decades?
Hey Jim, What kind of action do you want to see policymakers propose on the water front? Like, what would someone have to say to get your vote based on their water proposals? Because Ducey at least threw $1b at trying to address water in his final(?) budget? that doesnt win him some credit to you?
Ducey’s refusal to release that report and his continued approvals of the Saudis to grow alfalfa at a cheap rate (have any journalists looked into what “legal” payoffs went from land developers or foreign governments to the GOP?) means he gets no credit from me. And a billion-dollar handout to for possible desalination? Come on—that’s just more public dollars being shoveled toward GOP cronies. I like how Hobbs & Mayes have started, but obviously, the feds (assuming the Democrats retain the presidency in 2024) will be vital. And if Trump & the GOP win in 2024, then dying from lack of water will actually be a minor inconvenience here in Arizona!
I’m also interested in the micro issues: what should we as individuals do about this crisis? Yesterday I hauled 20 gallons of rainwater by hand to a converted 55 gallon drum. We can’t rely on our leaders alone to solve this crisis but there’s no guidance on the best steps for individuals. In Tucson, grass has become a memory. What else should we all do now?
Registered Republican in 1972. Easy decision. Back then racists were Democrats. Struggled with the Gingrich movement. Hated Trump. Gave up and quit the party the night AZ decided Kelli Ward should be its leader.
My greatest fear now -- Democrats push too hard for polarizing objectives -- and in the process, screw up, and Trump becomes 47. The Senate slides Red. And Trump.gets to jam two more.extremists on the Supreme Court replacing Thomas and Alito.
I so badly fear for.the future of this Nation if that happens.
Yes and no. Based on my 2020 and 2022 votes you would think I'm a registered Democrat but I'm not
I am as socially liberal as it gets. Which drives most of my reasons for believing those who hijacked the Republican Party must fail abysmally and catastrophically.
Democrats can't accomplish that alone. Without big support from Independents Dems can be the force that allows the extremist version of Republicanism to prevail.
50 years ago worked for media consultant whose "off year" clients were Arlen Spector for DA and Tom Gola for Controller of Philadelphia as well as Brendan Byrne for NJ Gov and Tom Bradley LA Mayor. Registered Dem except 1 cycle as Rep to choose lesser evil. Have been observer at MCTEC week before and aft 2020 & 2022 well run elections. Could back Richter as straight shooter as was/is predecessor. Live in LD3 which has whack-a-doodle state legislators, newest using sexual reference replies to constituent. Sinema could/should become a multi-millionaire while in mid-40's by cashing in on a new career with anti-democratic causes she has backed.
Sorry, I could relate to your comments until you got to the SCOTUS appointments, which is something I know more than a little about and represents a continuing triumph of the Trump administration (unless you think the executive branch should control everything, I don’t see how the basic thrust of the current Court could be objectionable to somebody who ascribes to your stated beliefs - meaning telling Congress to do it’s job and backing away from the courts and executive branch usurping powers that were expressly reserved to Congress and state legislatures) - and, BTW, I will not vote for Trump or Lake, as I believe both have disqualified themselves, personally - but the least of my fears, if Trump is reelected (which I am beginning to think is possible, given the apparent unwillingness of Democrats to acknowledge the glaring weaknesses of Biden and economic and foreign policy failings of his administration) is what would happen to SCOTUS.
My primary concern with some recent decisions of the Court arises from comsciously ignoring some laws in order to allow a desired result to take place. Alito subscribed to that notion for decades. Unfortunately a majority joined him by pretending the 9th Amendment didn't exist in concurring on Dobbs. Roe v. Wade was a stretch. Dobbs v. jackson was a farce.
I am a registered Republican and a Reagan conservative, I.e., a “McCain Republican.” Aside from Kimberly Yee and some down-ballot Republican candidates last year, I voted for Democrats because I cannot countenance election deniers or questioners. Regardless of policy differences, I will do it again until the rot is burned away. I prefer Sinema over Lake or Masters, but I will vote for Gallego if need be to bury the MAGA lunatics.
The only way Lake wins is if all three run. Which could tip control of the Senate. That doesn't matter as much if Trump loses. But if both Trump and Lake win the SCOTUS gets packed with 5 relatively young Trump appointments
I hope this does not happen. I think it will be difficult for Gallego to win a statewide race. If I were Sinema I would focus hard on my voting record. Actually I think all voters should look carefully at candidate voting records. We spend a lot of time talking about candidate personalities. More reporting on voting records and candidate campaign funding would be helpful. Ultimately will support whoever has the best chance to beat Lake.
I was a life-long Republican until 2018. I am now an Independent, but. like Ben, vote Democrat because I cannot countenance election deniers and because I support those who support the Constitution. I voted for Sinema; I will vote for Gallego.
My parents were Eisenhower Republicans and union members. They were fiscal conservatives and social liberals. They voted against all tax increases and bond issues but couldn't care less about who was gay or "pregnant out of wedlock." They were both gone by 2016, but I don't think either of them would have voted for Trump. I think Dad would have gone with Bernie in 2016 because of his class message.
My grandma, a lifelong republican, said she would have voted for Sanders (but not Clinton) over Trump. I think the class message is part of that -- and Trump and Sanders both kind of hit some populist notes people wanted to hear.
1. I'm an independent who votes Dem. If It's Biden vs twice impeached, four time indicted trump, which seems likely, I'll vote Biden, for sure. There is no other choice. trump is dangerous, vindictive, and a national security risk. I'm old and I can't remember a more dangerous time in America.
2. The authoritarianism and white Christian nationalism
3. No, nationally and no state-wise.
Bonus answer. Yes, I loathe Kyrsten Sinema for her narcissism and hypocrisy.
I'm not in Maricopa County, but for the most part, I don't support Republican policies, which is why I don't vote for Republicans. Stephen Richer is a good man, in a political party that needs more people like him. .
I'm a registered Democrat. I definitely would have supported the Republicans ... in 1860. They've changed a bit since then. Particular Democratic candidates, being human, are not always admirable, and even when they are, they make mistakes (a mistake being defined as making a different choice than I would, haha). I greatly admire my local D candidates (for state Leg), and many of the state and Federal ones. For those in AZ legislature (or in the U.S. House), they have virtually no power, so I'll wait until they get some to start criticizing. As for the opposition party, aside from not being the 1860 party any more, I haven't heard much of anything from them that I would sympathize with, and I am extremely concerned about their flirtations with autocratic ideals.
All of that being said, parties are made of people, and I often disagree with choices internal to the Democratic party. That is not enough to make me vote the other way. But parties can change, so ask me again in another 163 years.
I think this would really need a more detailed discussion (coffee sometime?) but the top mistake (IMHO) over the last bunch of years has been in messaging - repeating Republican talking points and then saying they are wrong, giving detailed facts and logical explanations as if they are teaching a class. They need to speak to values. I have to say that many candidates are now getting this right, but I still see the error quite a bit. Oh, and a related one: demonizing the opposition as opposed to contrasting with them (but again on values).
I gotta say, watching the lake/hobbs race was so funny/demoralizing/relieving because all lake did was say crazy shit that makes people's blood boil and all hobbs did was exactly what you're describing. But at the end of the day, Lake ain't governor...
Yeah, elections are contests, and in the end there are more factors than messaging. But governing is a different thing (a point I made in a Republic guest op-ed), and so far I'm largely pleased with Hobbs' work in that job. Not that you and other journalists shouldn't call her on stuff, but ...
Registered Democrat, always have been, currently pretty involved in trying to improve —ie push to the Bernie end— the party. Its dispiriting work, not helped by its failings, in my view, on immigration, foreign policy, unconditional support for israel, etc. locally the initiatives have always been more interesting to me than the candidates. I am too cynical to be able to “ sell” the politicians to convince someone to vote but propositions like justice for all and fight for 15 are where people really live, and affect their lives. I despise Sinema for making all my suspicions about politicians come true—a blue wave gets behind her and she immediately coxies up to Manchin to make sure she puts the brakes on some really important changes that the country needs to make. While i am loathe to blame all of our issues on Republicans, this current crop, the MAGA obstructionists, are incrediblt dangerous— as a politics based on theatre instead of policy propositions is apt to be. I have been known to jump the aisle on individual issues, like education or accountability, in the pre MAGA past but cannot imagine doing so now— the loonies are in the wheelhouse and things like culture wars and conspiracies turn me off and i see no policy proposals of interest.
Yeah, it's really hard to throw any support to a party packed with Justine Wadsacks. What initiative(s) are you excited about this year? You have any faith in Ranked choice voting (or whatever they're doing now) to change the dynamics of who makes it on the november ballot?
Obvio i will be excited about the abortion one if it ever comes out, altho i have heard so often that opening a constitutional convention can lead to alot of unrelated stuff but i think its worth it. Justice for All has always been an excellent one. I dont know of others yet. Raiding wages got mayor and council has a logic to it but “ excited” i am not on that one. My gut feeling is thst ranked choice would probably be an improvement but i dont know enough about it. Perhaps a primer on it would be good?
Embarrassed to say i am still a free subscription to tucson agenda so i assume i dont get to comment. Depends on the councilperson, hank, as to their value. Kozachik? A raise and more! Lane? A vote for Ortega….( im actually not in her district so i couldnt do that even if i wanted to…)
I fully support ranked choice voting as a way to elect candidates who represent a larger portion of citizens. And hopefully the system would attract candidates who wish to appeal to our better nature and not our extremes. I don’t know when it could be fully implemented. It will be a big job in this entrenched two party system.
As a budding young journalism student at Ohio State in 1972, I registered Democrat and voted for McGovern. I have voted Republican a few times. I voted for Kolbe once or twice and even McCain (in his Maverick days before Palin). I have voted Green or voted for Democratic challengers as a protest vote against incumbent Dems who really want to be Republican-lite (like Sinema). Gallego has to have a message that goes beyond "I'm not her" to win.
The country desperately needs campaign finance reform to stop big money from propping up dangerous candidates like Blake Master, Kari Lake, Donald Trump and other little Napoleons in the Legislature. People should run for office on ideas-- not money. Transparency in government is also a big issue in Arizona at all levels. Neither party wants to "show us the money" on the hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate tax giveaways and free land being given away by state, county and city governments. Arizona's school system is an underfunded mess. What are the people getting for these tax breaks? The perpetual tax breaks will cause a big pinch in the budget as the Flat Tax gives money back to the rich.
As mentioned above, identity politics isn't helping the Democrats. Instead of niche issues (with special interest money), Arizona elected officials should focus on big-picture issues -- like water, heat, education, housing and healthcare. Ducey's water bill was a mess, and corporate Democrats gave him the votes to pass it.
Creeping fascism and the lack of empathy for others scares me.
I am so with you on transparency. Forget the tax breaks - they can't even get that goddamn See the Money campaign finance website to work after three administrations. Its almost as if nobody cares. I also notice now on the website the portal for candidates is above the portal for the See the Money site. It's a small thing but it pisses me off to no end.
Member of the Democratic Party. Have voted for plenty of Republicans rooted in reality, especially for local offices where competence is more important than policy alignment (Richer for Recorder, etc.).
I'm in LD-12, with three Democratic members who are firmly liberal, in what appear to be safe seats. The most interesting legislative Democrat right now is Analise Ortiz (LD-24), who is willing to focus on a few ideas important to her constituents, especially affordable housing. The biggest challenge in both the House and Senate caucuses is keeping members in their seats, quite literally: attrition over the past few sessions has been brutal, either from members running for other offices (e.g., Jennifer Jermaine, who left the legislature to run for Justice of the Peace) or from quitting (this year). It's not the Democrats who have made each recent session a Death March to Sine Die, but it's a challenge. Otherwise, the caucuses are large enough to have the moderate and liberal factions you'd expect from a party potentially on the verge of a majority. Life.
Yeah, Ortiz is pretty sharp. How long until she runs for something else? And I don't blame people for ditching the Legislature -- it's a really bad job. Do you think paying people more than $24,000 (plus whatever mileage and per diem they can scrounge up) would help? Or is it something else driving people out?
Getting mileage while not working increased their pay this year. I think if the legislature actually focused on important issues mentioned above by Ms Powers, voters would be more open to paying them more.
I agree. If legislators were more focused on serious Arizona issues, water, reproductive rights, housing, public education ….and actually passed some bills that make a difference, then I would be more inclined to vote for a raise.
I suspect that in the past half-century, a part-time legislator became largely someone who had a flexible main job rather than someone who entirely gave up the main job during a short session. In Florida there were plenty of lawyers and real-estate people because they're more likely to be wealthy AND be far more flexible than others. And as long as there are enough people who can do that, plus others who are willing to take a $24K job a year for a few years as a stepping stone, it'll creak along.
I thought Ortiz has been with Rural Arizona Engagement since 2021, and the ACLU of Arizona before that. I wonder if she could make a go of it with a Substack... ;-)
When I first started to vote 55 years ago, I was Republican (my parents were and I didn't know anything else). But Reagan helped convince me that the Democrat party represented more of my values. Having lived in three western states, I have on occasion voted for Republican. And I will probably vote for Stephen Richer in the next election as I like what he has done. (I've been a poll worker for a number of years & also a volunteer deputy registrar.)
What bothers/scares me about the opposition party is the craziness and pettiness. The attitude that their way is the majority view and it will be forced down everyone's throat. The lack of compassion for others especially people of color is also appalling. And then there is the utter ignorance of our country's history! Their behavior, lack of getting anything done, petty squabbles, etc. is embarrassing to me and makes my friends who live in other parts of the world wonder.
Hank, as a long time independent I don't support either of the two parties, but instead focus on the individual candidates while looking closely at their stance on issues. I get turned OFF quickly when a candidate changes opinions/positions based upon which way the political winds are blowing. I recently worked with a group to do a survey of a small sample of voters on issues important to AZ. The top 5 issues were election reform (including having more choices than the current 2 parties), water resource management, K-12 education (including better funding), housing affordability, and health care. I could go on, but I'll stop here.
Weird! How was the election reform question worded? I've never heard of that boiling to the top of any surveys -- wonder if the question was phrased to appeal to both deniers and election realists?
I think it focused on having more and better choices as well as pushing back against the restrictive voting rules that some legislators have tried to implement. The responses were focused on getting away from re-hashing prior elections while at the same time making sure the process is easy for people to vote.
I've been registered and pretty active D since 1984. I live in "purple" North Central Phoenix. I am pretty obsessed with voting, but I have only voted for ONE Republican, Bill Mundell for Corp Comm'n. (I think he's a D now?) Despite my D leanings, I have MANY R friends and colleagues whom I love and respect. I am pretty fiscally conservative, but extremely socially liberal. I have appreciated the historic socially-libertarian views of R's from days gone by. However, at least since Arpaio days, our state has taken this weird hard right turn and I'm very concerned. The R's have normalized hate and intolerance for immigrants and LGBT+. They've normalized ignoring basic tenets of AZ and US Constitutional law.
What about the Democrats? What are they doing right or wrong? Do you think they're equipped to stop the state's weird hard right turn, or will that have to come from the Republican party itself?
I'm not impressed by our party's leadership in AZ. I say that somewhat sheepishly because I haven't gotten involved to try and change anything. I think that our state's demographic is changing, largely due to younger voters and folks moving here from other states. The R's lock on this state isn't a given as we've seen in recent years. So, while I'm not sure the party itself can course-correct, I think the demographics will have a lot to say. Also, with the Dobbs decision, folks are more energized to vote against many R issues, but they may not join the D party.
What I find disturbing is the lack of awareness from both ends of political parties that I sent the Arizona law enforcement/HIPAA/FBI evidence of an area that needs immediate attention on our Arizona law enforcement entities and the media and. Arizona political publicist know. I am the purest form of a whistle.blower except I am my full name not an avatar to the Public at Large and yet I am invisible and disregarded. Meanwhile, lies and omissions keep happening. When will we live in a functional system of real justice and accountability? Instead I am a target to almost take my life for speaking documented facts. Prayers 🙏 to us folks who follow God's laws and shine the light on the dark ways of today's world. Praying for the truth tellers. Let's have less clout chasers and more ⚖️ justice served. Lives matter.
Public education. Full disclosure: I’m a retired teacher (Covid broke me). The profession has become so disrespected & under paid for so long & the legislature has done nothing to bring it to the level it needs to be to serve all kids. The voucher system has become another way to ‘work the system’ with ZERO accountability & transparency. If parents want to pay for a private or charter school they are welcome to. WITH THEIR OWN MONEY! At the very least, if the republicans want to keep the vouchers in place, create an oversight committee to ensure that the money is spent correctly & private/charter schools have to jump through the same hoops as public schools.
It’s a start. But even that can’t compensate for the class sizes, the workload, & the burnout of public school teachers. Now they need to figure out how to make education more equitable for all students & stop the nonsense going on in the department of education. Looking at you Tom!
Jo, thank you for your years of service. It is truly disgusting how teachers are treated here in AZ. My parents were teachers, my sister too. My parents taught in the Cincinnati Public School District. They would be appalled at this Republican legislature and Horne if they were alive to witness. My housemate is currently a veteran teacher but I don’t know how much longer she can hang on for all the reasons you state. And that’s a real shame, to see quality teachers walk away... but I think that’s the plan, making quality public education disappear.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Credit for 20By2020 belongs solely to the Teachers who walked out in 2018 and the parents who stood with those teachers until Ducey was forced to capitulate. Give credits to Republicans for shutting down our schools that year. Nothing else.
My favorite conversation piece with my family is, can your state top this? And relate the latest craziness in Arizona. Yes I voted for Adrian the second time around because I thought he had done a good job with the recorder's position. And Stephen had said that he wanted "a boring job" which is what he thought the recorder's position should be. Of course, it did not turn out to be that and rather than quit, he's done a lot of things to improve the department and its operations. I admire him for not say enough is enough when considering running again.
The following is from Heather Cox Richardson's column on Facebook: It’s an omnishambles, a word coined in 2009 by the writers of the BBC political satire The Thick of It, meaning “a situation, especially in politics, in which poor judgment results in disorder or chaos with potentially disastrous consequences.” I think that describes the Republican party to a tee and I cringe at the way the crazy portion tries to "eat" the part that does not/will not go along with that attitude and behavior.
I’m an independent. I usually vote for democrats. I actually appreciate Krysten Sinema as her centrist ideas have actually resulted in real policy change. I’m not a fan of Gallegos partly because his policies are too liberal and partly because his behavior which sometimes seems a little crass.
I am most concerned about Trumpism from the Rep party. The extreme hate toward anyone not loyal to his way of thinking.
Reproductive freedom and access to safe legal abortion would have me cross the aisle and vote republican - republicans used to be more prochoice than democrats. Shows you how old I am.
I think the legislative branch of government has become nonfunctional and that we focus way too much attention on national politics instead of local.
Hey our first Sinema fan! So do you think she has a shot? What if it came down to a three-way -- are you scared that voting for her gives a win to a lake/blake type Republican?
Totally agree we focus too much on Washington. I blame the decimation of the local press, but that's just because it's a convenient narrative lol.
Convenient? More like "glazed"...I learned about this Arizona Agenda at the Arizona State Archives Library when a long time journalist said this is the real media where real topics are discovered and discussed.
That journalist refrained from coming off preachy yet very informative and in a very direct way and it was irrelevant what party you were, it was a place to learn from journalist who were done living their professional career under an editor. That was why I joined. I am new at this area. I am just a retired household housewife. I am new to the deeper learning and knowing of politics. It is 50 50 on who are Democrats or Republicans in my bloodline. I use to just follow my immediate family flow until Trump arrived then I had to start 🤔 thinking how important it is for me to gain knowledge.
I am sorry that Gallegos jumped in so quickly. If you look at AZ’s history democrats who get elected are centrists. Look at DeConcini or Napolitano. I think Sinema fits AZ’s psyche. But the demographics of AZ are changing, so who knows. I am so sorry we live in extremes now rather than fashioning policy solutions that actually help to improve problems. Instead it seems now we demonize the “other” side and get nothing done. I think the loss of local press is key. Also the focus on the executive/President in the 24 hr news cycle. People don’t even know who their local reps are. But then again people don’t understand the structure of Gov’t at all. Also the blurring between politics and policy making. After you got elected you used to become a statesman (person) but now it’s politics all the time.
Yeah, one of the wildest jobs i ever had was stringing for the Times -- a lot of it was just talking to random voters at public places and asking what they thought of political issues of the day. I started with some pretty sophisticated questions lol but quickly realized the average person has no clue about who is actually making decisions or why, other than perhaps they can name the president. Walk up to a person in the supermarket and ask them about their political beliefs and they can talk all day. Quiz them on the who what whys and they go blank.
I agree with Irene about Sinema. She is willing to work across the aisle on important issues which is the only way anything will get resolved. If she has had any successes with those efforts she should run on that and specifically address how it has helped Arizona citizens. She has a grating personality and I am suspicious that she is suddenly very rich, but I also keep in mind that most old white guys in the Senate are already super rich when they run for office. So why are we more angry with her about that?
I don’t know yet who I will vote for (not Lake) but I also agree that Gallego and be crass and immature, particularly on social media. And that is a big turn off for me.
Well that was fun! The dogs are harassing me for their walk and I should probably write a newsletter today. Any requests/suggestions?
I'm pretty confident most dogs support Vision Zero, walkability, 15-minute city, and safe street design. Even GOP owned doggos.
Water, water, water. For example, it seems that Ducey was covering up the depletion of existing water resources, and we’ve read about the Colorado River—so how will our leaders handle this challenge (and the related one of climate change) for the next few decades?
Hey Jim, What kind of action do you want to see policymakers propose on the water front? Like, what would someone have to say to get your vote based on their water proposals? Because Ducey at least threw $1b at trying to address water in his final(?) budget? that doesnt win him some credit to you?
Ducey’s refusal to release that report and his continued approvals of the Saudis to grow alfalfa at a cheap rate (have any journalists looked into what “legal” payoffs went from land developers or foreign governments to the GOP?) means he gets no credit from me. And a billion-dollar handout to for possible desalination? Come on—that’s just more public dollars being shoveled toward GOP cronies. I like how Hobbs & Mayes have started, but obviously, the feds (assuming the Democrats retain the presidency in 2024) will be vital. And if Trump & the GOP win in 2024, then dying from lack of water will actually be a minor inconvenience here in Arizona!
Yeah, that was a pretty Ducey move to pull.
I’m also interested in the micro issues: what should we as individuals do about this crisis? Yesterday I hauled 20 gallons of rainwater by hand to a converted 55 gallon drum. We can’t rely on our leaders alone to solve this crisis but there’s no guidance on the best steps for individuals. In Tucson, grass has become a memory. What else should we all do now?
Yes, xeriscaping is vital, and it's becoming the standard in Tucson. Maybe it will in Phoenix and its many suburbs!
Registered Republican in 1972. Easy decision. Back then racists were Democrats. Struggled with the Gingrich movement. Hated Trump. Gave up and quit the party the night AZ decided Kelli Ward should be its leader.
My greatest fear now -- Democrats push too hard for polarizing objectives -- and in the process, screw up, and Trump becomes 47. The Senate slides Red. And Trump.gets to jam two more.extremists on the Supreme Court replacing Thomas and Alito.
I so badly fear for.the future of this Nation if that happens.
Fascinating. Did you go full Democrat? And are there any Republicans left who you feel comfortable supporting?
Yes and no. Based on my 2020 and 2022 votes you would think I'm a registered Democrat but I'm not
I am as socially liberal as it gets. Which drives most of my reasons for believing those who hijacked the Republican Party must fail abysmally and catastrophically.
Democrats can't accomplish that alone. Without big support from Independents Dems can be the force that allows the extremist version of Republicanism to prevail.
50 years ago worked for media consultant whose "off year" clients were Arlen Spector for DA and Tom Gola for Controller of Philadelphia as well as Brendan Byrne for NJ Gov and Tom Bradley LA Mayor. Registered Dem except 1 cycle as Rep to choose lesser evil. Have been observer at MCTEC week before and aft 2020 & 2022 well run elections. Could back Richter as straight shooter as was/is predecessor. Live in LD3 which has whack-a-doodle state legislators, newest using sexual reference replies to constituent. Sinema could/should become a multi-millionaire while in mid-40's by cashing in on a new career with anti-democratic causes she has backed.
So how do they rig the election at MCTEC? lol. Would you vote for Sinema if the alternative were a lake/masters (with no gallego option)?
Absolutely yes. I'd vote for anyone who could keep that Senate seat from flipping control
if she entered Dem primary unlikely she beats if one other Dem (now Reuben) or if he dropped Stanton could jump in.
Would vote for anyone other than lake/ masters if gallego/Stanton was not option would vote for Sinema
Good call on Richter. I'd vote R for him. As well as some County Supervisors who stood their ground.
Agree on Richter
Sorry, I could relate to your comments until you got to the SCOTUS appointments, which is something I know more than a little about and represents a continuing triumph of the Trump administration (unless you think the executive branch should control everything, I don’t see how the basic thrust of the current Court could be objectionable to somebody who ascribes to your stated beliefs - meaning telling Congress to do it’s job and backing away from the courts and executive branch usurping powers that were expressly reserved to Congress and state legislatures) - and, BTW, I will not vote for Trump or Lake, as I believe both have disqualified themselves, personally - but the least of my fears, if Trump is reelected (which I am beginning to think is possible, given the apparent unwillingness of Democrats to acknowledge the glaring weaknesses of Biden and economic and foreign policy failings of his administration) is what would happen to SCOTUS.
My primary concern with some recent decisions of the Court arises from comsciously ignoring some laws in order to allow a desired result to take place. Alito subscribed to that notion for decades. Unfortunately a majority joined him by pretending the 9th Amendment didn't exist in concurring on Dobbs. Roe v. Wade was a stretch. Dobbs v. jackson was a farce.
I am a registered Republican and a Reagan conservative, I.e., a “McCain Republican.” Aside from Kimberly Yee and some down-ballot Republican candidates last year, I voted for Democrats because I cannot countenance election deniers or questioners. Regardless of policy differences, I will do it again until the rot is burned away. I prefer Sinema over Lake or Masters, but I will vote for Gallego if need be to bury the MAGA lunatics.
what if we get a Lake, Gallego, Sinema three-way race? Who will you support? Who do you think has a better shot at stopping Lake?
The only way Lake wins is if all three run. Which could tip control of the Senate. That doesn't matter as much if Trump loses. But if both Trump and Lake win the SCOTUS gets packed with 5 relatively young Trump appointments
I'm going with Gallego.
I hope this does not happen. I think it will be difficult for Gallego to win a statewide race. If I were Sinema I would focus hard on my voting record. Actually I think all voters should look carefully at candidate voting records. We spend a lot of time talking about candidate personalities. More reporting on voting records and candidate campaign funding would be helpful. Ultimately will support whoever has the best chance to beat Lake.
I was a life-long Republican until 2018. I am now an Independent, but. like Ben, vote Democrat because I cannot countenance election deniers and because I support those who support the Constitution. I voted for Sinema; I will vote for Gallego.
I always wonder how much of our audience is disaffected Republicans. Apparently quite a few of you!
My parents were Eisenhower Republicans and union members. They were fiscal conservatives and social liberals. They voted against all tax increases and bond issues but couldn't care less about who was gay or "pregnant out of wedlock." They were both gone by 2016, but I don't think either of them would have voted for Trump. I think Dad would have gone with Bernie in 2016 because of his class message.
My grandma, a lifelong republican, said she would have voted for Sanders (but not Clinton) over Trump. I think the class message is part of that -- and Trump and Sanders both kind of hit some populist notes people wanted to hear.
You just described my political beliefs. I hope there are a lot more of us, Ben.
1. I'm an independent who votes Dem. If It's Biden vs twice impeached, four time indicted trump, which seems likely, I'll vote Biden, for sure. There is no other choice. trump is dangerous, vindictive, and a national security risk. I'm old and I can't remember a more dangerous time in America.
2. The authoritarianism and white Christian nationalism
3. No, nationally and no state-wise.
Bonus answer. Yes, I loathe Kyrsten Sinema for her narcissism and hypocrisy.
1. lol. four is a lot of indictments for a president. 3. Not even Stephen Richer
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I'm not in Maricopa County, but for the most part, I don't support Republican policies, which is why I don't vote for Republicans. Stephen Richer is a good man, in a political party that needs more people like him. .
I'm a registered Democrat. I definitely would have supported the Republicans ... in 1860. They've changed a bit since then. Particular Democratic candidates, being human, are not always admirable, and even when they are, they make mistakes (a mistake being defined as making a different choice than I would, haha). I greatly admire my local D candidates (for state Leg), and many of the state and Federal ones. For those in AZ legislature (or in the U.S. House), they have virtually no power, so I'll wait until they get some to start criticizing. As for the opposition party, aside from not being the 1860 party any more, I haven't heard much of anything from them that I would sympathize with, and I am extremely concerned about their flirtations with autocratic ideals.
All of that being said, parties are made of people, and I often disagree with choices internal to the Democratic party. That is not enough to make me vote the other way. But parties can change, so ask me again in another 163 years.
Hey Morgan! What are the bigger mistakes (decisions you disagree with) your party has made recently?
I think this would really need a more detailed discussion (coffee sometime?) but the top mistake (IMHO) over the last bunch of years has been in messaging - repeating Republican talking points and then saying they are wrong, giving detailed facts and logical explanations as if they are teaching a class. They need to speak to values. I have to say that many candidates are now getting this right, but I still see the error quite a bit. Oh, and a related one: demonizing the opposition as opposed to contrasting with them (but again on values).
I gotta say, watching the lake/hobbs race was so funny/demoralizing/relieving because all lake did was say crazy shit that makes people's blood boil and all hobbs did was exactly what you're describing. But at the end of the day, Lake ain't governor...
Yeah, elections are contests, and in the end there are more factors than messaging. But governing is a different thing (a point I made in a Republic guest op-ed), and so far I'm largely pleased with Hobbs' work in that job. Not that you and other journalists shouldn't call her on stuff, but ...
Totally. I thought she was a bad candidate. But she's always been a pretty good politician. Those are two separate things.
And analysis like that is why we love you Hank!
Registered Democrat, always have been, currently pretty involved in trying to improve —ie push to the Bernie end— the party. Its dispiriting work, not helped by its failings, in my view, on immigration, foreign policy, unconditional support for israel, etc. locally the initiatives have always been more interesting to me than the candidates. I am too cynical to be able to “ sell” the politicians to convince someone to vote but propositions like justice for all and fight for 15 are where people really live, and affect their lives. I despise Sinema for making all my suspicions about politicians come true—a blue wave gets behind her and she immediately coxies up to Manchin to make sure she puts the brakes on some really important changes that the country needs to make. While i am loathe to blame all of our issues on Republicans, this current crop, the MAGA obstructionists, are incrediblt dangerous— as a politics based on theatre instead of policy propositions is apt to be. I have been known to jump the aisle on individual issues, like education or accountability, in the pre MAGA past but cannot imagine doing so now— the loonies are in the wheelhouse and things like culture wars and conspiracies turn me off and i see no policy proposals of interest.
Yeah, it's really hard to throw any support to a party packed with Justine Wadsacks. What initiative(s) are you excited about this year? You have any faith in Ranked choice voting (or whatever they're doing now) to change the dynamics of who makes it on the november ballot?
Obvio i will be excited about the abortion one if it ever comes out, altho i have heard so often that opening a constitutional convention can lead to alot of unrelated stuff but i think its worth it. Justice for All has always been an excellent one. I dont know of others yet. Raiding wages got mayor and council has a logic to it but “ excited” i am not on that one. My gut feeling is thst ranked choice would probably be an improvement but i dont know enough about it. Perhaps a primer on it would be good?
Yeah, we did something a long time ago when they were just getting started but probably worth revisiting.
https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/the-daily-agenda-democracy-isnt-sending
And did you comment on the Tucson Agenda today? They're talking about city council raises. How much is a city councilman worth to you, Betts?
Embarrassed to say i am still a free subscription to tucson agenda so i assume i dont get to comment. Depends on the councilperson, hank, as to their value. Kozachik? A raise and more! Lane? A vote for Ortega….( im actually not in her district so i couldnt do that even if i wanted to…)
I fully support ranked choice voting as a way to elect candidates who represent a larger portion of citizens. And hopefully the system would attract candidates who wish to appeal to our better nature and not our extremes. I don’t know when it could be fully implemented. It will be a big job in this entrenched two party system.
As a budding young journalism student at Ohio State in 1972, I registered Democrat and voted for McGovern. I have voted Republican a few times. I voted for Kolbe once or twice and even McCain (in his Maverick days before Palin). I have voted Green or voted for Democratic challengers as a protest vote against incumbent Dems who really want to be Republican-lite (like Sinema). Gallego has to have a message that goes beyond "I'm not her" to win.
The country desperately needs campaign finance reform to stop big money from propping up dangerous candidates like Blake Master, Kari Lake, Donald Trump and other little Napoleons in the Legislature. People should run for office on ideas-- not money. Transparency in government is also a big issue in Arizona at all levels. Neither party wants to "show us the money" on the hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate tax giveaways and free land being given away by state, county and city governments. Arizona's school system is an underfunded mess. What are the people getting for these tax breaks? The perpetual tax breaks will cause a big pinch in the budget as the Flat Tax gives money back to the rich.
As mentioned above, identity politics isn't helping the Democrats. Instead of niche issues (with special interest money), Arizona elected officials should focus on big-picture issues -- like water, heat, education, housing and healthcare. Ducey's water bill was a mess, and corporate Democrats gave him the votes to pass it.
Creeping fascism and the lack of empathy for others scares me.
I am so with you on transparency. Forget the tax breaks - they can't even get that goddamn See the Money campaign finance website to work after three administrations. Its almost as if nobody cares. I also notice now on the website the portal for candidates is above the portal for the See the Money site. It's a small thing but it pisses me off to no end.
Pamela, thanks for your years in service to your AZ constituents. Had to be very frustrating at times.
Member of the Democratic Party. Have voted for plenty of Republicans rooted in reality, especially for local offices where competence is more important than policy alignment (Richer for Recorder, etc.).
I'm in LD-12, with three Democratic members who are firmly liberal, in what appear to be safe seats. The most interesting legislative Democrat right now is Analise Ortiz (LD-24), who is willing to focus on a few ideas important to her constituents, especially affordable housing. The biggest challenge in both the House and Senate caucuses is keeping members in their seats, quite literally: attrition over the past few sessions has been brutal, either from members running for other offices (e.g., Jennifer Jermaine, who left the legislature to run for Justice of the Peace) or from quitting (this year). It's not the Democrats who have made each recent session a Death March to Sine Die, but it's a challenge. Otherwise, the caucuses are large enough to have the moderate and liberal factions you'd expect from a party potentially on the verge of a majority. Life.
Yeah, Ortiz is pretty sharp. How long until she runs for something else? And I don't blame people for ditching the Legislature -- it's a really bad job. Do you think paying people more than $24,000 (plus whatever mileage and per diem they can scrounge up) would help? Or is it something else driving people out?
Getting mileage while not working increased their pay this year. I think if the legislature actually focused on important issues mentioned above by Ms Powers, voters would be more open to paying them more.
I agree. If legislators were more focused on serious Arizona issues, water, reproductive rights, housing, public education ….and actually passed some bills that make a difference, then I would be more inclined to vote for a raise.
I suspect that in the past half-century, a part-time legislator became largely someone who had a flexible main job rather than someone who entirely gave up the main job during a short session. In Florida there were plenty of lawyers and real-estate people because they're more likely to be wealthy AND be far more flexible than others. And as long as there are enough people who can do that, plus others who are willing to take a $24K job a year for a few years as a stepping stone, it'll creak along.
I thought Ortiz has been with Rural Arizona Engagement since 2021, and the ACLU of Arizona before that. I wonder if she could make a go of it with a Substack... ;-)
Good luck getting voter approval for higher pay.
When I first started to vote 55 years ago, I was Republican (my parents were and I didn't know anything else). But Reagan helped convince me that the Democrat party represented more of my values. Having lived in three western states, I have on occasion voted for Republican. And I will probably vote for Stephen Richer in the next election as I like what he has done. (I've been a poll worker for a number of years & also a volunteer deputy registrar.)
What bothers/scares me about the opposition party is the craziness and pettiness. The attitude that their way is the majority view and it will be forced down everyone's throat. The lack of compassion for others especially people of color is also appalling. And then there is the utter ignorance of our country's history! Their behavior, lack of getting anything done, petty squabbles, etc. is embarrassing to me and makes my friends who live in other parts of the world wonder.
Yeah, the "what's up with Arizona?" questions get harder and harder to explain lol. Did you vote for Richer in his first run? Or still backed Fontes?
Hank, as a long time independent I don't support either of the two parties, but instead focus on the individual candidates while looking closely at their stance on issues. I get turned OFF quickly when a candidate changes opinions/positions based upon which way the political winds are blowing. I recently worked with a group to do a survey of a small sample of voters on issues important to AZ. The top 5 issues were election reform (including having more choices than the current 2 parties), water resource management, K-12 education (including better funding), housing affordability, and health care. I could go on, but I'll stop here.
Weird! How was the election reform question worded? I've never heard of that boiling to the top of any surveys -- wonder if the question was phrased to appeal to both deniers and election realists?
I think it focused on having more and better choices as well as pushing back against the restrictive voting rules that some legislators have tried to implement. The responses were focused on getting away from re-hashing prior elections while at the same time making sure the process is easy for people to vote.
Interesting. Can you share it? Mostly just out of curiosity but may also be worth quoting at some point
I've been registered and pretty active D since 1984. I live in "purple" North Central Phoenix. I am pretty obsessed with voting, but I have only voted for ONE Republican, Bill Mundell for Corp Comm'n. (I think he's a D now?) Despite my D leanings, I have MANY R friends and colleagues whom I love and respect. I am pretty fiscally conservative, but extremely socially liberal. I have appreciated the historic socially-libertarian views of R's from days gone by. However, at least since Arpaio days, our state has taken this weird hard right turn and I'm very concerned. The R's have normalized hate and intolerance for immigrants and LGBT+. They've normalized ignoring basic tenets of AZ and US Constitutional law.
What about the Democrats? What are they doing right or wrong? Do you think they're equipped to stop the state's weird hard right turn, or will that have to come from the Republican party itself?
I'm not impressed by our party's leadership in AZ. I say that somewhat sheepishly because I haven't gotten involved to try and change anything. I think that our state's demographic is changing, largely due to younger voters and folks moving here from other states. The R's lock on this state isn't a given as we've seen in recent years. So, while I'm not sure the party itself can course-correct, I think the demographics will have a lot to say. Also, with the Dobbs decision, folks are more energized to vote against many R issues, but they may not join the D party.
FYI the new chair of the state Democratic Party is awesome.
What I find disturbing is the lack of awareness from both ends of political parties that I sent the Arizona law enforcement/HIPAA/FBI evidence of an area that needs immediate attention on our Arizona law enforcement entities and the media and. Arizona political publicist know. I am the purest form of a whistle.blower except I am my full name not an avatar to the Public at Large and yet I am invisible and disregarded. Meanwhile, lies and omissions keep happening. When will we live in a functional system of real justice and accountability? Instead I am a target to almost take my life for speaking documented facts. Prayers 🙏 to us folks who follow God's laws and shine the light on the dark ways of today's world. Praying for the truth tellers. Let's have less clout chasers and more ⚖️ justice served. Lives matter.
Public education. Full disclosure: I’m a retired teacher (Covid broke me). The profession has become so disrespected & under paid for so long & the legislature has done nothing to bring it to the level it needs to be to serve all kids. The voucher system has become another way to ‘work the system’ with ZERO accountability & transparency. If parents want to pay for a private or charter school they are welcome to. WITH THEIR OWN MONEY! At the very least, if the republicans want to keep the vouchers in place, create an oversight committee to ensure that the money is spent correctly & private/charter schools have to jump through the same hoops as public schools.
What about 20X2020? That was a pretty big deal. No credit to Republicans/the legislature for that one?
It’s a start. But even that can’t compensate for the class sizes, the workload, & the burnout of public school teachers. Now they need to figure out how to make education more equitable for all students & stop the nonsense going on in the department of education. Looking at you Tom!
Tom! How that melted wax statue got elected AGAIN is still one of the most fascinating mysteries of 2022.
I literally shudder each time I see him!
Jo, thank you for your years of service. It is truly disgusting how teachers are treated here in AZ. My parents were teachers, my sister too. My parents taught in the Cincinnati Public School District. They would be appalled at this Republican legislature and Horne if they were alive to witness. My housemate is currently a veteran teacher but I don’t know how much longer she can hang on for all the reasons you state. And that’s a real shame, to see quality teachers walk away... but I think that’s the plan, making quality public education disappear.
“Melted statue” 😂
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Credit for 20By2020 belongs solely to the Teachers who walked out in 2018 and the parents who stood with those teachers until Ducey was forced to capitulate. Give credits to Republicans for shutting down our schools that year. Nothing else.
I completely agree with what Jo says on the education issue.
My favorite conversation piece with my family is, can your state top this? And relate the latest craziness in Arizona. Yes I voted for Adrian the second time around because I thought he had done a good job with the recorder's position. And Stephen had said that he wanted "a boring job" which is what he thought the recorder's position should be. Of course, it did not turn out to be that and rather than quit, he's done a lot of things to improve the department and its operations. I admire him for not say enough is enough when considering running again.
The following is from Heather Cox Richardson's column on Facebook: It’s an omnishambles, a word coined in 2009 by the writers of the BBC political satire The Thick of It, meaning “a situation, especially in politics, in which poor judgment results in disorder or chaos with potentially disastrous consequences.” I think that describes the Republican party to a tee and I cringe at the way the crazy portion tries to "eat" the part that does not/will not go along with that attitude and behavior.
I’m an independent. I usually vote for democrats. I actually appreciate Krysten Sinema as her centrist ideas have actually resulted in real policy change. I’m not a fan of Gallegos partly because his policies are too liberal and partly because his behavior which sometimes seems a little crass.
I am most concerned about Trumpism from the Rep party. The extreme hate toward anyone not loyal to his way of thinking.
Reproductive freedom and access to safe legal abortion would have me cross the aisle and vote republican - republicans used to be more prochoice than democrats. Shows you how old I am.
I think the legislative branch of government has become nonfunctional and that we focus way too much attention on national politics instead of local.
Hey our first Sinema fan! So do you think she has a shot? What if it came down to a three-way -- are you scared that voting for her gives a win to a lake/blake type Republican?
Totally agree we focus too much on Washington. I blame the decimation of the local press, but that's just because it's a convenient narrative lol.
Convenient? More like "glazed"...I learned about this Arizona Agenda at the Arizona State Archives Library when a long time journalist said this is the real media where real topics are discovered and discussed.
Cool! That's the first time we've been called "the real media" but I'll take it.
That journalist refrained from coming off preachy yet very informative and in a very direct way and it was irrelevant what party you were, it was a place to learn from journalist who were done living their professional career under an editor. That was why I joined. I am new at this area. I am just a retired household housewife. I am new to the deeper learning and knowing of politics. It is 50 50 on who are Democrats or Republicans in my bloodline. I use to just follow my immediate family flow until Trump arrived then I had to start 🤔 thinking how important it is for me to gain knowledge.
I am sorry that Gallegos jumped in so quickly. If you look at AZ’s history democrats who get elected are centrists. Look at DeConcini or Napolitano. I think Sinema fits AZ’s psyche. But the demographics of AZ are changing, so who knows. I am so sorry we live in extremes now rather than fashioning policy solutions that actually help to improve problems. Instead it seems now we demonize the “other” side and get nothing done. I think the loss of local press is key. Also the focus on the executive/President in the 24 hr news cycle. People don’t even know who their local reps are. But then again people don’t understand the structure of Gov’t at all. Also the blurring between politics and policy making. After you got elected you used to become a statesman (person) but now it’s politics all the time.
Yeah, one of the wildest jobs i ever had was stringing for the Times -- a lot of it was just talking to random voters at public places and asking what they thought of political issues of the day. I started with some pretty sophisticated questions lol but quickly realized the average person has no clue about who is actually making decisions or why, other than perhaps they can name the president. Walk up to a person in the supermarket and ask them about their political beliefs and they can talk all day. Quiz them on the who what whys and they go blank.
People are shocked when they learn that Barry Goldwater and his first wife Peggy were instrumental in bringing Planned Parenthood to AZ.
Goldwater was pretty fascinating. I was just reading this one the other day.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-contributor/2019/02/03/goldwater-held-fate-sesame-street-his-hands/2745151002/
I got to go to parties at the Goldwater’s house when I lobbied for Planned parenthood. Peggy was quite a grand lady.
You fancy!
I agree with Irene about Sinema. She is willing to work across the aisle on important issues which is the only way anything will get resolved. If she has had any successes with those efforts she should run on that and specifically address how it has helped Arizona citizens. She has a grating personality and I am suspicious that she is suddenly very rich, but I also keep in mind that most old white guys in the Senate are already super rich when they run for office. So why are we more angry with her about that?
I don’t know yet who I will vote for (not Lake) but I also agree that Gallego and be crass and immature, particularly on social media. And that is a big turn off for me.