The Daily Agenda: Ducey won't save you now
The Daily Agenda: Ducey won't save you now
Republican lawmakers will have to save themselves ... Oh God, not another hand count ... And who's to blame for "vigilantes" at drop boxes?
Housekeeping note: For at least the next two weeks, we’ll be expanding the Daily Agenda to Fridays because there’s just too much news right now. You can expect the Daily Agenda Monday through Friday mornings in your inboxes until after the election is over.
Democrat-aligned outside spending groups are pummeling Republicans in competitive legislative districts, and Republicans are spooked that the main PACs that exist to strike back at Democrats aren’t doing enough to save their slim majorities at the Capitol.
In three of the four state Senate races that are broadly seen as truly competitive, Democratic “independent expenditure” PACs1 have vastly outspent their Republican counterparts, launching relentless attacks against “extremist” Republican candidates while propping up Democrats with ads, mail and roadside signs. National IE groups have swooped in with big money to help Arizona Democratic legislative candidates, sensing an opportunity to break Republicans’ hold on the Capitol.
In the Legislative District 4 Senate race, for example, Democratic IE groups have spent about $670,000 boosting their candidate and attacking the Republican, while Republican groups have spent around $57,000.
In the LD9 Senate race, Democratic IE groups have spent $330,000, while Republican groups have spent around $87,000.
In the LD13 Senate race, Democratic IE groups have spent $350,000, while Republican groups have spent around $225,000.
Only in the LD2 Senate race are outside groups roughly even, at about a quarter-million dollars per side.
Of course, money doesn’t necessarily equal victory, and Democrats often outspend Republicans on the campaign trail only to lose in November.
But Republican tongues are wagging about the lack of spending from the two big IEs that have protected the Republican majorities in recent years: the Republican Legislative Victory Fund, fueled by the fundraising of Republican leaders at the Capitol and managed by the consulting firm Camelback Strategy Group, and Arizonans for Strong Leadership, which Gov. Doug Ducey runs.
So far this cycle, the RLVF has raised $1.6 million to defend Republicans and attack Democratic challengers. But nearly two weeks after early ballots started hitting mailboxes, it has only spent less than half of that. Most of what it has spent has gone to consultant fees and more than $200,000 worth of polling, with very little materializing as tangible outreach to voters.
“I don’t know if they’re saving it for the election night party or what,” one frustrated Republican consultant said.
Only about $15,000 of the roughly $800,000 the RLVF has spent so far has directly translated into messaging for Republicans or against Democrats, according to campaign finance reports. Lorna Romero Ferguson, owner of Elevate Strategy, which works with the RLVF, said the team running the RLVF is aware of the “background noise” from the political chattering class about their spending decisions, but they’re fully focused on maintaining and growing Republicans’ legislative majorities. She pointed to a handful of new 15-second digital ads and accompanying websites that the RLVF launched yesterday, saying more help is on the way. But she didn’t contest that the IE group has only spent about $15,000 so far on actual communication to voters to help Republican candidates for the Legislature. (Camelback Strategy didn’t return our call yesterday.)
Because the PAC is overseen by Republican legislative leaders, spending decisions by the RLVF have always been somewhat contentious during campaign season. But Republican lawmakers have always been able to rely on Ducey’s Strong Leadership IE to bail them out if the RLVF doesn’t.
But this year, Ducey is only helping one candidate: his budget director Matt Gress, who is running for a House seat in the competitive LD4. The lame-duck governor clearly isn’t throwing his shoulder into fundraising for the IE this year, as he has in the past. By this time in 2020, Ducey had spent around $2 million to boost more than a dozen Republican legislative candidates, on his way to more than $3 million before November. This year, he’s only raised about $200,000 for the IE and has spent almost all of that on Gress.
“He’s out the door. It’s not his problem anymore,” another Republican consultant said.
While polling for national Republicans has picked up in recent weeks, several Republican consultants and candidates we spoke to worry that winning or splitting the state Senate is still within Democrats’ grasp, especially if the Republican groups tasked with defending Republicans don’t pick dramatically increase their spending — and fast.
One way to waste money: The Cochise County Board of Supervisors voted 2-1 to approve a full hand count of the 2022 general election. The county will likely be sued — the Secretary of State’s Office has already warned it would legally challenge a hand count. And Arizona Rep. Joel John, a Republican, said he will file an SB1487 complaint against the county as well, threatening state-shared revenues. At the start of the meeting, Chairwoman Ann English warned her fellow board members that if they decided to initiate the hand count, against the advice of the county attorney, they may have to pay legal costs out of their own pockets, not the county’s. The county’s insurer also cautioned that any legal claims wouldn’t be covered by insurance, either.
The least he can do is drop out: After being charged for public indecency, Maricopa County Community Colleges District Governing Board candidate Randy Kaufman still has not withdrawn from the race, meaning he could still win the election. He told Fox10 that he wouldn’t take the seat if he wins, but if he won, someone else could be appointed in his place.
The silence is loud: Republican legislative candidate Mary Ann Mendoza allegedly appears in some photos wearing blackface and brownface in two separate costumes, as Aunt Jemima and Pocahontas, the Copper Courier reports. In the days since the story broke, Mendoza has not responded in any way to the claims that the photos are of her. Mendoza is running in Legislative District 9, one of the competitive races this cycle.
These laws are toothless: The state requires financial disclosures for office holders and candidates to be full and accurate, but there are rarely consequences for people who don’t fill them out accurately, the Republic’s Robert Anglen and Stacey Barchenger report. Secretary of State and gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs and AG candidate Abe Hamadeh had missing income on their forms and corrected the omissions, but SOS candidate Mark Finchem still hasn’t corrected his forms to include missing income.
We’re getting ready to file our own financial disclosure statements of sorts with our quarterly business update. But unlike politicians, we don’t want to hide our income. We want to show you that we have lots of it. Subscribe today for 30% off so we feel successful when we crunch our numbers next month.
The view from here: Yesterday’s episode of “The Daily," from the New York Times, features a lengthy interview with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, who takes the podcast through his run for office, his win and the moment where he decided to tell the truth about election conspiracies instead of choose political expediency, which hasn’t won him many friends in his party.
Whiplash isn’t over yet: The ping-ponging legal decisions on abortion in Arizona have “destablized” access to abortion and the people who provide the care, The 19th’s Shefali Luthra reports. Providers are struggling with staff while people seeking abortions aren’t sure where they can go for help.
“This has been the most insane roller coaster ride I have ever been on,” Dr. Jill Gibson, the medical director at Planned Parenthood Arizona, told The 19th. “We feel like we’re constantly having whiplash.”
Not a good look: A new report from the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting says that Arizona is “ground zero” for the constitutional sheriffs movement, which more than half of Arizona’s sheriffs have either direct connections with or identify with the group’s ideologies. The anti-government sheriffs’ movement now aligns with election conspiracies, AZCIR’s Isaac Stone Simonelli reports.
Is she no longer fake?: Gov. Doug Ducey endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s opponent in the primary and hasn’t been active on the campaign trail for Lake, but he still thinks Lake, who he once called “Fake Lake,” is the “superior candidate” for governor, the Republic’s Stacey Barchenger reports. The Republican Governors Association, which Ducey chairs, has spent big on Lake’s race.
"I've been Kari's largest supporter and will continue to be her largest supporter," Ducey told Barchenger.
Don’t sue us, we’ll sue you first: Ducey is suing the Biden administration after the administration told the state the shipping containers stacked on the border need to be removed because they’re on federal land. And the state is now putting up more shipping containers near Sierra Vista.
It’s a whole industry: Finchem’s national profile in election denier circles is helping him raise money for his campaign, making him the only statewide candidate who’s gotten the majority of his campaign donations from outside of Arizona, the Arizona Mirror reports.
In-depth stories on a problem you hear about a lot: The Republic’s Yana Kunichoff explores the shortage of teachers and other staff at Arizona schools in a multi-part series, touching on large class sizes that result from a lack of teachers, how parents sometimes step in to take staff or aide jobs to help out and how a school nurse shortage affects students’ time in school.
Is sanity enough?: The Bulwark’s Tim Miller uses the Lake vs. Hobbs battle to analyze how Democrats need to fight against democracy-denying candidates like Lake, especially the ones who are slick talkers. He concludes that Hobbs’ campaign isn’t meeting the moment, and Democrats aren’t adequately coming to help, despite having sanity on their side.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Kelly Townsend.
The Arizona senator who once called on “vigilantes” to patrol ballot drop boxes tweeted yesterday that “wearing tactical gear while watching a ballot drop box could be considered voter intimidation,” saying people shouldn’t do it.
These “IE” groups are an increasingly important tool for partisans, and IE spending often outpaces the candidates themselves. IEs cannot coordinate with candidate campaigns but, unlike candidates, they can collect unlimited contributions from corporations and unions, giving them a financial edge. The semi-anonymous, vaguely named groups are often behind the kind of low-blow attacks that a candidate might be hesitant to use for fear of sullying their own images, but which have proven effective to swaying voters’ opinions.
There's a long tradition of struggling and/or losing candidates complaining about lack of support from the outside. "The party didn't help!" or "The IE support I was counting on to campaign for me didn't show up," or "Sure, I'm a less-than-optimal candidate for this district, but someone else will polish my image."
I'm no Karl Rove, but I'd worry more about shaking hands and kissing babies in these last two weeks than bellyaching about IEs.
Ann English warned her fellow board members that if they decided to initiate the hand count, against the advice of the county attorney, they may have to pay legal costs out of their own pockets, not the county’s. The county’s insurer also cautioned that any legal claims wouldn’t be covered by insurance, either.
A pity we couldn't have done this with Karen or Warren or the other State Senate Republicans. It's always so much more fun to help "my" cause with someone else's money.