On to November
On to November
Glad that’s over … It was relatively chill … And just another hot mic moment.
The primary election is finally over.
Well, sort of.
We still have thousands of ballots to count1 and a few races that are too close to call. The numbers will change a bit, and it’ll be a few days before it’s all officially over.
But some trendlines are clear.
Here’s where things stood as of our bedtime.
FEDERAL RACES
Kari Lake’s margin of victory: Lake took home a hilarious 55% of the Republican primary vote, far below the 70% threshold she needed to clear to avoid embarrassment and questions about her electability. Mark Lamb’s 39% was especially impressive considering Lamb could barely get his name in the papers as a challenger to the presumptive nominee, and the perceived inevitability of Lake’s nomination scared off major donors who might have otherwise backed him as Republicans’ best chance to win the U.S. Senate seat in November.
The Green Party U.S. Senate primary: Two alleged “sham” Green Party candidates for the U.S. Senate duked it out, with Democratic plant Mike Norton racking up a commanding 25-percentage-point lead over GOP plant Arturo Hernandez.2 Green Party-approved write-in candidate Eduardo Quintana’s votes aren’t immediately tallied, since he’s a write-in.
CD1 Democrats: Amish Shah leads the pack of Democrats who hope to challenge Republican David Schweikert in Congressional District 1. But his edge over fellow Democrat Andrei Cherny is still relatively narrow, at less than 3 percentage points, or about 1,600 votes. Marlene Gálan Woods isn’t far behind in the third-place slot.
CD3 Democrats: Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari lead former lawmaker Raquel Terán in the Democratic primary to replace U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego. If her margin holds, she’s assured a seat in Congress representing this West Valley Democratic stronghold.
CD8 Republicans: Abe Hamadeh quickly pulled ahead of Blake Masters, and he held that solid lead throughout the night. House Speaker Ben Toma was nipping at Masters’ heels, while Republican Sen. Anthony Kern took home a deplorable 5% of the vote, far less than disgraced former Congressman Trent Franks, who earned 17% of the vote.
The Longshots: Two congressional Republicans faced challenges from within their own ranks — one of them for being too liberal and the other for being too conservative. While Kathleen Winn garnered 40% of the vote in her attempt to right-flank U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, moderate Republican Jack Smith was far less successful in his attempt to unseat MAGA Congressman Eli Crane. Smith pulled in just 20% of the vote.
MARICOPA COUNTY
Maricopa outgoing: In one of the most-anticipated county races in the nation, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer got bounced off the November ballot by Republican lawmaker and election skeptic Justin Heap. Heap winner will face Democrat Tim Stringham in the November election.
Maricopa County Board of Supervisors:
District 1: Maricopa County Supervisor Jack Sellers lost his reelection bid to Chandler City Councilman Mark Stewart, an election skeptic. It’s a competitive district, and Stewart will face Tempe City Councilman Joel Navarro in November in this East Valley district.
District 2: Former lawmaker and belly shot enthusiast Michelle Ugenti Rita failed to unseat Supervisor Tom Galvin, who pummeled her by about 15 percentage points in this Scottsdale-based district.
District 3: Former moderate Republican lawmaker Kate Brophy McGee also had no trouble dispatching her MAGA challenger, Tabatha Cuellar Lavioe, for the GOP nomination. Brophy McGee will face former Phoenix City Councilman Daniel Valenzuela in this competitive central Phoenix-based district.
District 4: And to nobody’s surprise, Congresswoman Debbie Lesko easily defeated her Republican challenger Bob Branch in this GOP stronghold representing the West Valley.
There’s always 2026: Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio suffered his fifth consecutive election loss. It was his second consecutive loss to Fountain Hills Mayor Ginny Dickey — and this time, he went down by a much, much larger margin than the roughly 200 votes he lost by two years ago.
ELSEWHERE IN ARIZONA
Pima County Attorney Laura Conover and Sheriff Chris Nanos had no trouble defending their seats against Democratic challengers Mike Jette and Sandy Rosenthal, respectively.
In Cochise County, former lawmaker Frank Antenori likely won a seat on the board of supervisors to replace Peggy Judd, who refused to certify the results of her county’s 2022 election and is now facing criminal charges. He’s leading the Republican primary and would face a Democrat in the Republican-dominated district. Meanwhile, Tom Crosby, the other supervisor who refused to certify Cochise County’s election, is narrowly beating back a challenge from Republican Clint Briseno. Crosby was up by about 400 votes as of our deadline.
And Yavapai County Republicans did not elect David Stringer as their next county attorney. The disgraced former lawmaker, who was forced out of the Legislature after reporters dug up old police records showing he has solicited sex from underage boys, lost his race to incumbent Dennis Mcgrane by about a 40 percentage point margin.
THE STATE SENATE
In almost every MAGA v. moderate GOP primary for the state Senate, MAGA won. And the lone race where the MAGA Republican didn’t prevail is still too close to call.
LD1 GOP: Former lawmaker, election denier and failed Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem easily defeated Republican Sen. Ken Bennett.
LD7 GOP: Sen. Wendy Rogers defeated Rep. David Cook, though by a narrower margin than many expected, considering the millions she had to spend.
LD17 GOP: Former lawmaker Vince Leach is narrowly leading in his challenge to Republican Sen. Justine Wadsack by 2 percentage points. But that race could still flip, as the two were only separated by about 900 votes as of our deadline. LD17 is a traditionally Republican district that Democrats are targeting as a potential pickup opportunity.
LD9 GOP: MAGA Republican Robert Scantlebury, who lost this Mesa-based Senate seat to Democrats in 2022, will proceed to the general election after defeating moderate Republican Christopher Stapley. The district is competitive on paper, though Democrats dominated the far-right Republican nominees in 2022.
LD22 Dems: Sen. Eva Diaz easily kept her seat against former Rep. Leezah Sun’s attempt to get back in the Legislature. Sun only got 24% of the vote.
LD2 GOP: Sen. Shawnna Bolick is holding her seat against challenger Josh Barnett.
LD30 GOP: Hildy Angius is set to take the LD30 Senate seat left vacant by Sonny Borrelli with 52% of the vote in her three-way race.
THE STATE HOUSE
The big news of the night in the state House races was the defeat of a longtime Democratic incumbent and the ouster of another Democratic quasi-incumbent.
LD5 Dems: Rep. Charles Lucking was not “re-elected” to the spot he was appointed to earlier this year. But Rep. Sarah Liguori, another legislative appointee, was the top vote-getter next to Aaron Márquez.
LD6 Dems: Incumbent Reps. Mae Peshlakai and Myron Tsosie got the most votes in their race, while challenger and Peshlakai’s sister, Angela Maloney, lost without the incumbent advantage.
LD7 GOP: Former state lawmaker Walter Blackman and Rep. David Marshall Sr. are the top vote-getters so far in this six-way primary. Former Rep. John Filmore is trailing by more than 4,000 votes in this Republican district.
LD8 Dems: In a huge upset for longtime state lawmaker Juan Mendez, his running mate Brian Garcia and challenger Janeen Connolly will likely advance the November election. Mendez trailed Garcia by about 400 votes as of our deadline.
LD10 GOP: Turning Point USA CFO, and former lawmaker and Corporation Commissioner Justin Olson and Ralph Heap (Rep. Justin Heap’s dad), are front runners for the two House seats in this Republican district.
LD24 Dems: Rep. Lydia Hernandez will keep her seat against challenges from two progressive newcomers, but Anna Abeytia is in second place to progress to the general election in this Democratic district.
LD25 GOP: Rep. Michael Carbone will keep his seat, and American Ninja Warrior star Nickolas Kupper will likely join him on the general election ballot in this Republican district.
LD27 GOP: Republicans Lisa Fink and Tony Rivero are set to progress to the general election to take two open House seats in this deep red district.
Election day is not just about casting your vote and selecting your candidates.
It’s also about engaging with democracy — and we here at the Agenda believe that civic life should be fun!
Hundreds of you joined in on our election prediction contest yesterday (results and winners to be announced when the dust is fully settled), proving once again that you all like games.
And our paid subscribers sure seemed to like our election night drinking game.
To get in on the best political drinking games in town, click this button.
In fact, some of you liked it a little too much…
So we threw together a post-election scavenger hunt.
If you send us an example of each of these items on your scavenger hunt list, we’ll send you a little something special.
To play along, reply to this email with your answers.
Polling Place Issue: Find an example of something going wrong at a polling place.
Newcomer Victory: Identify a political newcomer who won their primary and defeated an incumbent.
Most Votes: The candidate who received the most total votes in any race.
Close Race: The race with the closest margin of victory.
Historic First: Identify any candidate who achieved a historic first (e.g., first woman, first person of color, etc.) by winning their primary.
Recount: Identify if any race is going to a recount due to close results.
First-Time Voter: Find a news story with a quote from a first-time voter.
Campaign Contributions: Find the winning legislative candidate with the least amount of money.
Candidate Selfie: A selfie posted by a candidate at their polling place or campaign headquarters.
Bonus points if it’s illegally taken within the 75-foot line, like Mark Finchem.
Election Day Playlist: A playlist or song shared by a candidate or their campaign on social media to motivate voters.
Local Celebrity Endorsement: A shoutout or endorsement from a local celebrity or public figure encouraging people to vote.
No news is good news: Arizona didn’t see anything resembling the election-day nuttiness of recent years. Instead, it was a pretty quiet day at the polls. The only concern that popped up was whether erasable pens some voters used to fill out ballots would fade in the summer heat, the Washington Post’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reported. The problem affected less than 30 ballots, Capitol scribe Howie Fischer reports.
Slow day: Voter turnout on election day was sparse in Maricopa and Pima counties, the Republic’s Sasha Hupka reported. Maricopa County officials said they expected turnout would end up being far below the 2022 primary, while Pima County officials reported 24,000 election-day voters, down from 27,000 two years ago.
General election incoming: Vice Presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance is headed to Cochise County this week to check out the border, the Republic’s Stephanie Murray reports. Next week, Vice President Kamala Harris is coming to Phoenix with her new running mate, who may or may not be Sen. Mark Kelly.
Bill comes due: While state Sen. Justine Wadsack watches her neck-and-neck race with former state Sen. Vince Leach, the Tucson Police Department formally charged her for excessive speeding and failure to produce proof of insurance, KVOA’s Sarika Sood reports. Wadsack was pulled over in March and her “legislative immunity” got her out of the ticket at the time. Since then, TPD officers have tried to get her to sign the ticket, but she refused, saying it was “persecution.”
Remember to tip your waitress: The Arizona Restaurant Association is suing to block the “One Fair Wage Act” which would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour if voters approve it in November, the Arizona Mirror’s Jerod Macdonald-Evoy reports. The restaurant association says supporters of the measure didn’t gather enough signatures.
Please also tip your local reporters this election season by clicking this button.
Saying no to uranium: Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren said he deployed police to stop the transport of uranium across the reservation, which a 2012 tribal law prohibited. But before police could set up roadblocks, the two trucks hauling uranium had already passed through the reservation, the Associated Press reported.
Immigration and prosecution: Federal prosecutors in Arizona are charging more migrants for illegally crossing the border, despite an overall drop in migrants being apprehended at the border, Arizona Public Media’s Danyelle Khmara reports. The Department of Homeland Security sent four more attorneys to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Arizona and prosecutions went up 25% in the second quarter of the year.
Apparently, nobody realized the red light was still on when the Santa Cruz County supervisors went into executive session on Monday morning.
Instead of having a confidential conversation about the $4 million that went missing from the treasurer’s office, they inadvertently broadcast that the figure was much, much higher than the public knew: $39 million.
They didn’t catch the mistake for several hours and the video stayed up on YouTube until Monday afternoon before it was removed. But it was too late.
More than 50 people watched it, including reporters at the Nogales International.
The Secretary of State’s Office provides a breakdown of how many ballots are left to tabulate in each county. But since counties aren’t actually required to report how many ballots are still uncounted, it’s pretty much a guessing game. Yes, it does drive us crazy.
It’s a very low-turnout race, so the difference between them is only 58 votes.
Tony Rivero and Lisa Fink are in LD27, not LD26. And LD27 is not deep red - Fontes actually won there. Arguably, it is competitive (though leaning).
Nit pic time: The trucks were carrying uranium ORE, not uranium - big difference. The ore is from the Canyon Mine & its grade is generally less than 1% U3O8. If a truck was carrying copper ore or iron ore, you wouldn't say they were carrying copper or iron, because that's the term which describes the extracted metal following processing of the ore.