Flowing into court

As Arizona Department of Water Resources chief Tom Buschatzke tells it, he would rather not sue the federal government over cuts to the state’s legal allocation of Colorado River water.

As Gov. Katie Hobbs put it in a statement, “we are drawing a line in the sand.”

In the slow, deliberate cadence of a doctor delivering bad news, Buschatzke on Friday ushered a Zoom room of reporters into the next phase of the dispute over the river, one that could cost a lot of money and a lot of time while climate change and regional hydrology worsen.

As Buschatzke indicated, Arizona is not the first state to sue the federal government over its 10-year Colorado River plan, which it released in August after the states failed to reach a consensus agreement.

Nevada sued the federal government just three days after the feds announced their plan.

Nevada receives the smallest volume of Colorado River water among the three downriver states — about 300,000 acre-feet a year — but could see that amount cut by up to 70% under the federal plan.

That’s a huge hit to cities like Las Vegas that almost entirely rely on the river.

While Nevada’s cuts are more immediately impactful, Arizona’s are much larger in the long run — enough to drive the Central Arizona Project to mud.

Of all the states in the basin, Arizona probably has the most to lose. That’s why Buschatzke said Arizona would rather focus on negotiating a shortage-sharing plan with the other Lower Basin states.

But Nevada’s lawsuit spurred Arizona to act.

Like Nevada, Arizona argues that the cuts ignore the Law of the River.

That’s the collective body of law and court precedent that shapes current river allocations — and, according to the Lower Basin states, guarantees them more water than they’d get under the federal cuts. (The feds and the Upper Basin states don’t see it that way.)

Arizona also echoes Nevada in arguing that the feds ignored the massive economic consequences of the cuts to major cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix, violating elements of the National Environmental Policy and Administrative Procedure acts.

The federal plan presents guardrails to be followed in specific hydrologic scenarios over the next decade.

If low precipitation and overuse continue, the feds will issue sweeping cuts to the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada and especially Arizona. In the short term, Arizona is counting on an as-yet unsigned shortage-sharing agreement among the three states to head off the worst reductions.

That’s where things get a little tricky.

As written, the federal plan will allow for the shortage-sharing deal to be implemented in its first two-year phase.

Arizona promoted this as a silver lining in an otherwise grim document.

But Nevada is challenging the whole plan — even as it, Arizona and California are actively finalizing the deal that would constitute those first two years of the plan.

Arizona, by contrast, is arguing that it needs that two-year plan in place to know how much water it will receive in just a few months.

Buschatzke maintained during the press conference that the lawsuit would not derail negotiations over the shortage-sharing deal, which, he said, just needs “finishing touches.”

It’s true that Nevada wants the court to throw out the first two years of the plan “if you read the words on the piece of paper,” Buschatzke said, but “in discussions with Nevada, they want to fulfill the terms of the Lower Basin proposal, and if we can come to a positive conclusion, I take it Nevada will agree to that.”

What Arizona is not doing is making a “compact call.”

That would likely entail suing one or several Upper Basin states — and possibly the federal government as well — in order to effectively force the delivery of water the state says it is allowed to use under the compact.

While that nuclear option may become necessary in the eyes of state officials and economic boosters, it would be extremely costly and time-consuming.

Interstate litigation over the river usually lands before the U.S. Supreme Court and sometimes takes years, even decades, to sort out.¹

That’s time the river doesn’t have at the current rate of use and aridification.

Friday’s lawsuit is perhaps a more measured step — but it’s one that opens the door to the same kind of drawn-out legal fight.

And Buschatzke told reporters he’s leaving a compact call on the table.

A sobering moment: The Secretary of State’s Office was evacuated Thursday afternoon after an employee opened a letter containing white powder, which Secretary of State Adrian Fontes called “a sobering moment that highlights the reality of election administration in this country today.” The FBI is investigating similar letters sent to election offices across the country, and officials briefed on the attack say more than 100 suspicious letters were sent to politicians and election offices, Votebeat reports. Fontes told CNN the substance was tested and found to be not harmful to humans. At least 36 Democratic and Republican lawmakers across the country reported receiving suspicious letters last week.

No takebacks: The Arizona Supreme Court will decide whether the Clean Elections Commission can investigate allegations that two fake Green Party candidates fabricated $5 qualifying donations to obtain public campaign funds and force them to return the money, the Arizona Mirror’s Caitlin Sievers reports. Risa Lombardo and Duwayne Collier, the Green Party nominees for governor and secretary of state, could be on the hook for $3.7 million, but argue that even if they committed fraud, the commission doesn’t have authority to demand repayment.

PAC it up: The Attorney General’s Office is reviewing allegations that an Axon-linked PAC violated campaign finance disclosure laws while spending $335,000 attacking Scottsdale City Council candidates who oppose the Taser maker’s development plans, the Republic’s Shawn Raymundo reports. A complaint alleges the Better Together PAC’s signs failed to properly disclose its major donors, and after the Secretary of State’s Office found a likely violation, it referred the case to state prosecutors.

Extra credit: A 19-year-old Arizona State University undergrad, Democrat Sebastian Matta, is running for clerk of the Maricopa County Superior Court against Republican former state lawmaker Jeff Dial, the Capitol Times’ Rachel Ohm writes. The job pays $96,600 a year to oversee court records and finances, and Dial is questioning his teenage opponent’s qualifications after Matta filed two campaign finance reports late. Matta blamed his busy campaign schedule and added, “I’m not a math wiz.”

Which side are you on?: Reporters at the Arizona Daily Star in Tucson voted to unionize last week, shortly after their former evil corporate overlords at Lee Enterprises sold the paper to the even eviler corporate overlords at USA Today Co. As our sister sletter, the Tucson Agenda, notes, the unionization effort brings great joy to our hearts, and we at the Agenda stand ready to help any way we can.

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is the state’s only official, nonpartisan voter education resource — created by Arizona voters for voters.

We publish the voter education guide, host the debates, and break down what’s on your ballot. Not who you should vote for — what you need to know before you do.

Campaign ads are annoying, boring and worst of all, almost never set to Broadway show tunes.

But thank God for David Gordon, a Tempe charter school founder and political blogger, who published an AI-generated attack ad roasting Republican secretary of state hopeful Alexander Kolodin to the tune of “Hamilton’s” opening number, “Alexander Hamilton.”

Throughout the video, an animated ballot narrates Kolodin’s involvement in the infamous “Kraken” election lawsuit and his legislative efforts to restrict voting. Meanwhile, AI Kolodin spends much of the feature film sipping from a bottle of rosé — an apparent nod to recently resurfaced news of his 2020 traffic stop.

Kolodin also wanders through colonial America as historical figures like Benjamin Franklin and George Washington look on in disappointment.

The video reaches its climax (at about the same time the original “Hamilton” song builds to its final crescendo) when Kolodin inks “blow me” onto the Declaration of Independence.