Lake Powell, the reservoir created by the federally managed Glen Canyon Dam, could reach “deadpool” by the end of the year without intervention.
Generally, what that means is water levels in the dam — which currently sit at around 3,528 feet, or 23% of “full pool” — may drop too low to generate power. That would kill off a key function of the dam, which was initially envisioned as a “cash register” project that could help finance other, even more ambitious water diversion schemes elsewhere in the West.
At the same time, the miserable hydrologic and climatic conditions of the basin mean that deliveries from Lake Powell to Lake Mead downriver may fall low enough this year to violate the Colorado River Compact, which promises (depending on who you ask) an average of 75 million acre feet of water over 10 years plus half of the U.S. government’s obligation to Mexico to the Lower Basin.
Typically, in current negotiations around the future of the Colorado River, these two fast-approaching inflection points are positioned in opposition to one another. That's especially true if you live in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, where the line is that the profligate water users in the Lower Basin — particularly Arizona, which is slated to shoulder the biggest cuts under current draft plans — can’t expect the Upper Basin to ensure water deliveries at that level while also protecting the dam.
But to some in Arizona, this thought reflects a lack of imagination at a time when the basin needs it most.
We’ve talked a lot about Arizona’s arguments for its water rights in the context of Colorado River negotiations — its legal arguments (we have a right to a certain amount of water under the Compact), its economic arguments (drying up CAP could threaten trillions of dollars of economic activity over the years), its moral arguments (the federal government has an obligation to protect the Lower Basin and fulfill its trust responsibilities to tribes with as-yet undeveloped water rights).
This week, though, we’re honing in on one, perhaps lesser discussed, element of its case: Can’t we reengineer the dam to function in drier times and avoid deadpool?
“Why in the world wouldn’t you do whatever you could to make sure you could release at lower levels?” mused Terry Goddard, a former mayor of Phoenix who now is president of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District board of directors, which oversees the Central Arizona Project, in a recent interview with the Agenda. “That’s simply one way at least to fix the short-term problem. The fact that it’s not on the table is incomprehensible to me.”
And why can’t you?
I’m no dam engineer, but I’ll do my best to explain: At present, most of the water that flows through the dam is funneled through hydropower penstocks, which can take in water at elevations as low as 3,490 feet. And to be safe, the federal government has set 3,500 feet as the hard line.
But there are four bypass valves — what are called river outlet works — another 100+ feet below. These valves can pass water through the dam, as well. But the federal government has quietly acknowledged that the aging outlet works aren’t meant to handle water at the volumes and velocity necessary to fulfill delivery obligations downriver without using the penstocks. Indeed, the “stilling well” that is used for official measurements in the reservoir ends beneath the penstocks, suggesting that initial managers didn’t anticipate using water beneath that point. (Clearly, they didn’t anticipate a lot of things, or, alternately, they were willfully ignorant.)
If the bypass valves were used that way, there’s a risk of degradation, sediment buildup and cavitation, a scary word which I don’t really have the technical knowledge to explain, but involves exploding air bubbles and basically means bad news for the physical infrastructure of the dam.
We saw some of those infrastructural risks already when the federal government dropped $9 million on new lining for the outlet works in 2024. And one critic, Kyle Roerink from Nevada’s Great Basin Water Network, called those fixes equivalent to “duct tape and baling wire” in an interview at that time. And in the 1980s, the dam was damaged because of high water levels. But the feds have comparatively little experience managing cavitation and other risks in dry conditions.
Repairs to cavitation damage to the dam in the 1980s. At the time, the concern was whether the infrastructure could handle exceptionally high water levels. How things change!
But Goddard and others in the state believe there are ways to make more substantial improvements to the dam to allow sufficient volumes of water to pass through at lower elevations.
This could also free up a huge amount of water that exists in the reservoir but is effectively trapped beneath the penstocks — something like 4.2 million acre feet, which could potentially be used to satisfy the basin’s needs. As such, CAP and the state Department of Water Resources have lambasted the federal government in official comments for failing to consider major infrastructural improvements in its draft planning documents for managing the river into coming decades.
Instead, the federal planning documents — what you’ll hear water people refer to as the infamous “Draft EIS,” or environmental impact statement, which is required under the National Environmental Policy Act — focus mostly on reducing allocations to the Lower Basin, particularly Arizona, to protect elevations in the reservoir.
“The Draft EIS’s omission of any discussion of structural repairs as a potential solution to ensure sufficient delivery of Colorado River water to the Lower Basin is a further example of the Secretary’s failure to pursue federal actions that will facilitate Compact compliance,” ADWR’s comments on the EIS read.
Terry Goddard, center, sits next to AZ. Gov. Katie Hobbs and CAP general manager Brenda Burman at a 2025 event.
For its part, CAP’s official comments state:
“Addressing the infrastructure limitations is one long-term measure that would best achieve operation and management improvements. CAP requests that Reclamation include additional information in the final EIS on its plan for repairs, modifications and enhancements at Glen Canyon Dam, including overhauling or replacing the hollow-jet valves and other possible solutions, future permitting and compliance for that plan, and a project schedule.”
Lower Basin officials also argue that the federal government should trigger releases from Upper Basin reservoirs like Flaming Gorge to keep elevations steady at Lake Powell, though it seems the federal government would rather focus on delivery and consumption reductions for the Lower Basin.
Anyway, those cuts, even if they all-but-wipe out CAP, may not be enough to prevent a systemwide crash of the river.
“It’s gonna take a lot of creativity, ingenuity and money to get out of this hydrologic mess,” Goddard said. “So far, in this EIS, we haven’t seen any of those items offered.”
But maybe improving the dam to allow deliveries at lower water elevations is only delaying the inevitable. Shouldn’t we accept our hydrological reality and get used to less water?
“Only if the drought is permanent,” Goddard said. “And that’s something I don’t think anybody can say. If we continue at the kind of inflow levels that we had this year, even last year, there’s a much bigger problem that needs to be dealt with. But we also have certain legal obligations in the basin that need to be fulfilled.”
Raising questions: Federal firearms experts weren’t able to match the bullet that killed conservative activist Charlie Kirk to the rifle owned by alleged shooter Tyler Robinson, the Republic’s Stephanie Murray reports. That raised a lot of questions about the shooting, and when the Daily Mail published a headline saying the bullet didn’t match the rifle, it set off a battle between the tabloid and Turning Point USA, including producers at “The Charlie Kirk Show” who called the headline “despicable.”
Yep, that checks out: The state education official who oversees how money is spent in Arizona’s school voucher program confirmed reporting by 12News’ Craig Harris that 20% of parents misused voucher money. Harris had been taking heat from conservative groups that claimed he misunderstood the data and wouldn’t own up to his mistake. But Joseph Guzman, associate superintendent for accountability, research and evaluation at the Arizona Department of Education said Harris had it right.
Pushing pause: The Department of Homeland Security is pausing its plan to buy up warehouses and turn them into immigration detention centers, NBC News reports. But two unnamed officials say work will continue at warehouses that were already purchased (which presumably would include the one in Surprise) while new DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin reviews the $38 billion plan to build a new nationwide network of detention centers.
From the governor’s desk: Gov. Katie Hobbs signed the bill that repeals César Chávez Day, saying she was “deeply troubled” by the revelations about Chávez. She said she’s still trying to “find meaningful ways to honor and celebrate our farmworker community,” including farmworkers who pick lettuce in Yuma and oranges in Mesa. In a separate news release, Hobbs took a moment to throw shade at Republican Sen. Jake Hoffman, saying “indicted fake elector Jake Hoffman” is sabotaging public education funding while GOP lawmakers try to give themselves a pay raise.
You can give some scrappy reporters a small pay raise by clicking this button. And we won’t even sabotage public education!
The voice in their ear: While NASA astronauts walk on the surface of the moon during the Artemis mission sometime in 2028, they’re going to be guided by Kristen Bennett, a planetary scientist at Northern Arizona University, per the NAU Review. Her goal is to understand lunar volcanic deposits, which show the materials that are inside the moon. And this isn’t her first (space) rodeo. She helped run the Mars Curiosity rover, including operating the cameras that took “selfies” of the rover.
“Our job is to be the scientists — and specifically geologists — sitting in the back room at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center giving the astronauts feedback during their [extravehicular activities],” Bennett said. “We’ll help them figure out which direction to walk, which rocks to take as samples and how many samples to take.”
In the spirit of April Fools Day and ahead of the annual Arizona House vs Senate softball game later this month,1 House Chief of Staff Grant Hanna hijacked the Senate’s public announcement speakers yesterday to taunt the Senate with this message from our president.
The damn-convincing AI generated deepfake played throughout the entire Senate building yesterday just minutes before senators started crowding into the floor for their daily vote-a-thon.
Hanna was a former deputy chief of staff in the Senate — and apparently they never changed the passwords after he moved to the House.
But something tells us he’ll only be able to pull this trick one time.
1 Interesting fact: Gov. Katie Hobbs once broke her leg at one of those House/Senate softball games. Also, that’s a separate event from the annual lawmakers vs lobbyists softball game. Ahh, the camaraderie…