Cheat sheet: The five legislative districts to watch

These general election races are hot, and there’s a lot on the line.

Five key legislative districts — and a few potential wild-card races — will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Arizona Legislature.

And, since this is the first election under new districts after once-a-decade redistricting, the races are even more unpredictable than usual.

Most legislative districts tilt heavily toward one party or another, putting those that are truly competitive in the spotlight. And with the Governor’s Office up for grabs, each seat in the Legislature is going to be critical to forming a governing coalition between the House, Senate and Ninth Floor. 

Safe Dem districts:🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴🐴

Safe GOP districts: 🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘

Competitive districts: 🤷🤷🤷🤷🤷

This year, Democrats have a not-unrealistic chance of splitting the state Senate with a 15-15 deadlock — effectively breaking the decades-long one-party rule over the Legislature — and an outside chance of taking the majority.

In the House, Democrats’ best-case scenario seems to be splitting the chamber 30-30. That’s because Democrats charted a conservative strategy by opting to run just one candidate for the two House seats¹ in multiple Republican-leaning competitive districts. 

In this cheat sheet, we run down the five competitive districts to watch, plus a few “wild-card” races that politicos are keeping an eye on as potential upsets in “safe” districts.

Even if you don’t live in one of the state’s competitive districts, it’s good to get to know these candidates now — competitive districts frequently deliver the Capitol its power players, those moderates from either party that cross the aisle and craft the big deals.

One caveat: Take the candidate fundraising numbers with a grain of salt. Because of Arizona's laissez-faire reporting requirements, the candidates’ numbers are old. The last reports were due in mid-July, and the next ones won’t be out until the middle of October. Spending from outside groups, however, is more up-to-date.

For general information about candidates, you can usually find their campaign websites (and news stories about them) by Googling. If you trust a certain organization’s recommendations, they may have a voter guide that could help you select candidates. You can find campaign finance reports here, all candidates (and some details about them) in every non-local race here and officeholders’ financial disclosure statements here. The Arizona Clean Elections website also has a ton of info on voting itself and on candidates, including Clean Elections debates². The voter education guide is particularly helpful for general candidate info.

If you like these cheat sheets, share them with your friends who need to get up to speed.

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Legislative District 2

Where is it: This northern Phoenix district runs roughly north of Thunderbird Road, between Interstate 17 and State Route 51, up to nearly the Carefree Highway. 

Predecessor district: Largely the previous LD20, but includes parts of LD15

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Jeanne Casteen, the executive director of the Secular Coalition for Arizona

• Republican: Steve Kaiser, a representative for LD15 running now for Senate and owner of a junk removal company

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Judy Schwiebert, an incumbent representative from LD20 and former teacher

• Republicans: Justin Wilmeth, an incumbent representative from LD15 and former legislative staffer & Christian Lamar, an information technology worker endorsed by outgoing Rep. Shawnna Bolick

The voters: Republicans hold a 7-percentage-point advantage in registered voters, but the district leans less Republican than it would appear on paper, based on previous elections. In the nine election races used by the IRC to determine competitiveness, Republicans won six. Independent voters are the largest active bloc in the district, Maricopa County figures show, followed by Republicans and then Democrats. 

Who has the money?: The Democrats lead on fundraising. Schwiebert and Casteen have crushed their Republican opponents in fundraising, and outside groups — like Opportunity Arizona, Planned Parenthood Votes and Forward Majority — are spending to boost both of them. Republicans Wilmeth and Kaiser have raised far less than their Democratic counterparts, but independent expenditure Americans for Prosperity has been swooping in to support them. 

Analysis: Her incumbent status and single-shot strategy in the House will give Schwiebert an edge. And while Lamar, a far-right MAGA Republican who wants to overturn the 2020 election results, lags on money and name recognition compared with Wilmeth, don’t count him out, given the Republican Party decidedly Trumpian bent. In the Senate race, an incumbent lawmaker like Kaiser has some advantage with voters. But some of Kaiser’s bills this year, including one that could have made teachers out LGBTQ students to their parents, may put him off the pulse of a relatively independent district. And Democrat-aligned groups are doubling down on taking him out, spending big to boost Casteen in recent weeks. 

Bottom line: In the House, Schweibert is favored to win a seat — the question is which Republican wins the other. The Senate race will likely depend on the national winds. 

Legislative District 4

Where is it: This Paradise Valley and Scottsdale district is bordered by State Route 51 on the west and State Route 101 on the east, and takes in parts of the Arcadia neighborhood north of Indian School Road.

Predecessor district: Formerly LD28, which operated as a swing district that Democrats won in recent years, the new LD4 now favors Republicans

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, from former LD28

• Republican: Incumbent Sen. Nancy Barto, from former LD15

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Laura Terech, a teacher

• Republicans: Matt Gress, Gov. Doug Ducey’s budget director, and Maria Syms, a former lawmaker 

The voters: Republicans make up about 39% of active voters, while just 27% of voters here are Democrats. But the Republicans are fairly moderate by today’s standards (the district is home to Ducey, for example), and Democrats have won four of the nine statewide races the IRC used to judge competitiveness. 

Who has the money?: Gress’ campaign has pulled in more than a quarter-million dollars and had big backing from business groups in the primary. Terech’s campaign has pulled in less than half that, still a respectable haul, while Syms’ fundraising has been stunted. In the Senate race, Marsh and Barto are about evenly matched heading into November, though Marsh narrowly leads and has garnered more outside spending on her behalf.

Analysis: Gress, who has the backing of his former boss, Ducey, fits the mold of moderate Republicans previously elected to the area, and he’s campaigning on giving teachers a $10,000 raise. Syms, and especially Barto, are farther right. Syms has name ID from having represented the predecessor district for one term ending in 2018, when voters replaced her with a Democrat. But Barto has made a name for herself as one of the most conservative lawmakers in the state and Arizona’s most staunch critic of abortion rights, which will be a especially tough sell to the culture-war adverse Republicans in the district. 

Bottom line: Marsh will likely return to the Senate, while the smart money in the House race is on Terech, the single shot Democrat. The other seat is a tossup between Gress’ money and business backing and Syms’ grassroots support and name ID.  

Legislative District 9

Where is it: The west Mesa district covers areas from the Loop 101 to Val Vista, with Dobson Ranch in its southernmost region to University in one northern section and Hohokam Stadium in another. 

Predecessor district: Former LD25, mixed with LD26 and LD18

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Lorena Austin, a fifth-generation Arizonan, and Seth Blattman, a small business owner who ran unsuccessfully in 2020

• Republicans: Kathy Pearce, a nonprofit operator who previously ran for office in 2020 and is the sister of Russell Pearce, and Mary Ann Mendoza, an Angel mom 

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Eva Burch, a nurse

• Republican: Robert Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police officer who was once named in an excessive force claim and now owns his own tractor service

The voters: This is the only Dem-leaning competitive district, per the IRC’s metrics. And while Republicans narrowly outnumber Democrats here, the largest share of the voters are independents. Voters backed Democrats in five out of the nine statewide races the IRC used in its metrics. 

Who has the money?: The Democrats have a huge edge. In the Senate race, Burch has outraised Scantlebury three-to-one, and she didn’t have to spend her money in a bruising primary. In the House race, the Republicans have raised paltry sums, while Austin and Blattman are well-funded.

Analysis: The incumbent senator in this area, Tyler Pace, a relatively moderate Republican, lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed candidate, Scantlebury. And while MAGA groups dropped a lot of money to get Scantlebury through the primary, they haven’t yet boosted him heading into November. Democrats, on the other hand, are spending big for Burch and the two House candidates, and they obviously see the race as one of their biggest pickup opportunities after Republican primary voters went far-right. While Pearce pulled first place in the Republican primary, it’ll be interesting to see how that last name fares in a general election more than a decade after Mesa voters recalled then-Senate President Russell Pearce in a historic vote. 

Bottom line: Given the district makeup and the Republicans’ poor fundraising and far-right ideology, a clean sweep for Democrats isn’t out of reach.

Legislative District 13

Where is it: This East Valley district includes Chandler, Sun Lakes and western Gilbert. It’s bordered by State Route 101 in the west and Gilbert Road in the east, from Hunt Highway in the south and Baseline Road in the north.

Predecessor district: Largely the former LD17

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Jennifer Pawlik, an incumbent representative and former elementary school teacher

• Republicans: Liz Harris, an attorney prominent in post-2020 election fraud circles who previously ran for the House in 2018, and Julie Willoughby, an ER trauma nurse who previously ran for the House in 2018

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Cynthia “Cindy” Hans, a former educator and a volunteer deputy registrar with the Maricopa County Elections Department

• Republican: J.D. Mesnard, an incumbent senator

The voters: The area is a major magnet for out-of-staters who move here to work in the district’s booming tech industry, and it’s trending toward Democrats. Republicans have an advantage here and make up 36% of the electorate, though independents are just behind at 35%. About 28% of the voters are Democrats.

Who has the money?: The incumbents lead on money. In the House race, Pawlik is far outraising her Republican opponents, and outside Democratic groups are drowning Harris in negative advertising. In the Senate race, Mesnard is crushing his Democratic opponent in fundraising, though a few outside groups are still trying to keep Hans’ campaign afloat.

Analysis: This version of the district is slightly tighter than its predecessor district, but it still leans toward Republicans on paper. Mesnard is facing the toughest race of his political career, but he’s well-funded and has pulled off tough races before. His saving grace may be that so far, Democratic groups are all-in on re-electing Pawlik in the House, and they’re not putting the same level of financial support behind Hans in the Senate. 

Bottom line: The district will likely stay purple — whether that’s magenta or periwinkle will depend on whether the incumbent Mesnard can pull off his Senate race in a year that may be worse for Republicans than previously thought. 

Legislative District 16

Where is it: This Pinal County-based district runs along Interstate 10 and covers the City of Maricopa, Eloy, Coolidge, Florence, and travels southeast, just touching up against Tucson.

Predecessor district: LD8

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Keith Seaman, a former longtime rural public school teacher who briefly served on the Coolidge Unified School Board

• Republicans: Rob Hudelson, a pastor and Navy veteran, and Teresa Martinez, who was appointed to the House last year

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Taylor Kerby, a sixth grade teacher and Casa Grande Union High School District board member

• Republican: T.J. Shope, an incumbent senator

The voters: The district is rural and Trumpy, and even the Democrats here have a conservative bent. Republicans have a 3.6% competitive edge over Democrats in the district, according to the IRC’s figures, which technically makes it highly competitive. But each of the nine election races used to determine competitiveness went to the Republican candidate. 

Who has the money?: Shope is crushing the fundraising race against his Democratic opponent for the Senate. In the House, Martinez is leading Seaman, while Hudelson had barely raised a few thousand dollars as of the last campaign finance reports. 

Analysis: This district is only competitive, really, on paper. But you never know with a new district. Keep an eye on the House race. Hudelson’s fundraising has been nonexistent and Martinez is an appointee, and appointees have a history of failing to hold seats. The Democrat may have a longshot chance, though the fact that Democratic groups have yet to put serious money into this race doesn’t bode well for him. 

Bottom line: If there’s no outside appetite to help the Democrat running for House, the district will likely stay fully Republican.

Potential wild card: Legislative District 17

Why it could be a wild card: In the Republican primary for this district, far-right Republican Justine Wadsack landed a surprise victory over Sen. Vince Leach. After the primary, Wadsack emerged victorious but bruised from a bitter court case over whether she even lived in the district. She has espoused QAnon beliefs, and some Republicans worry that she’s too far right for even the safe Republican district. 

Democrats also like Dana Allmond in the House race, and her campaign has seen healthy fundraising and a boost of outside spending. But with two Democrats on the ballot, it’s hard to imagine either overcoming the district’s Republican leanings.  

Where is it: Northeast of Tucson’s core and north of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, the district includes the Catalina Foothills, Oracle and other small communities. 

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrat: Mike Nickerson, a pastor

• Republican: Justine Wadsack, a Republican activist

House candidates (pick two):

• Democrats: Dana Allmond, a retired Lieutenant Colonel and graduate of West Point Academy, and Brian Radford, a retired corrections officer and former teacher

• Republicans: Rachel Jones, a former teacher and “Border Patrol wife,” and Cory McGarr, a millennial New Jersey transplant who works for a pest control company

Who has the money: Nobody has much. The Republicans spent all their money on bruising primaries. In the House, Allmond had the most cash of any candidate as of the last report and has received significant outside spending on her behalf. In the Senate race, Nickerson is running with public financing and has not seen outside groups swoop in to his defense yet.  

Potential wild card: Legislative District 22

Why it could be a wild card: Former lawmaker Diego Espinoza won the contested Democratic primary for this district’s Senate seat, then resigned a month later to take a lobbying gig with Salt River Project, leaving the Democrats with six qualified write-in candidates (one later withdrew). The Republicans had four as well (until one withdrew), and there’s an independent, too. It’s pure chaos. And that leaves Republicans with an outside chance of picking up a seat in this solid blue district. 

Democrats have coalesced behind Eva Diaz, a teacher in Tolleson, as their official party candidate, but if Republicans can organize behind one candidate and get the word out about the write-in campaign, they may have a shot at winning. It’ll come down to which side can get a couple thousand people to remember to fill in the write-in bubble and spell a name correctly. 

Where is it: The West Valley district includes parts of several towns on the west side of the Valley, including Tolleson and Avondale.

Senate candidates (pick one): 

• Democrats: Steve Chapman, Justin Crawford, Eva Diaz, Kenya Raymond and Paul Valach

• Independent: Stephen Diehl

• Republicans: Ryan Benson, Jeff Norwood and Steve Robinson

Who has the money: We don’t know! They’re all write-in candidates, so they haven’t even been required to fill out campaign finance reports yet.

1. This strategy, called a single-shot, relies on a voter to choose just one candidate, withholding a second vote from another, to buoy the single-shot candidate. 

2. Disclaimer: We get paid to moderate some of Clean Elections legislative debates.