For the first time in Arizona’s 114 years as a state, voters will elect a lieutenant governor in November.
The brand-new position inserts a vice president-like figure into the Capitol’s line of succession and requires candidates for governor to choose a running mate.
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is locked in as her party’s nominee, and at this point, the odds are pretty high that Congressman Andy Biggs will represent the GOP on the ballot.
So who are they going to put on their tickets?
They have until Sept. 4 to decide, and it’s still anyone’s guess who they’ll choose.
But speculating is one thing Arizona’s political insiders, consultants and junkies love to do — so we thought we’d indulge them.
But first, a little history.
The position was created after former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey signed SB1255 in 2022 and — since amending the Arizona Constitution requires voters’ approval — sent a referral to the ballot in the form of Proposition 131. It passed with more than 55% of the vote.
The lieutenant governor office was born from the labor of Republican Sen. JD Mesnard, who tried for years to convince lawmakers to replace the secretary of state as the second-in-line to the governor. That’s primarily because, as he noted, that succession has happened so many times in the last 50 years.
“We had about every version of the line of succession triggered since, like, the 1970s — everything from impeachment to death to appointments to convictions, you name it,” Mesnard told us. “When you have the line of succession triggered, it could mean a change of party. And even if it was (someone from) the same party, it’s not someone you ran with. You just don’t have the proper continuity. Voters supported a certain vision for the state, and all of a sudden — boom, there’s a switch. None of that is good in my view.”
He introduced several bills throughout the years, but faced opposition (mostly from Democrats) and didn’t make any headway until 2022.
Even before Mesnard, there were other attempts to create the lieutenant governor position, with ballot measures failing in both 1994 and 2010.
Former Gov. Jan Brewer, a Republican, was also a major advocate for the lieutenant governor role in Arizona during her 14 years as a state lawmaker and six years as governor. (For what it’s worth, Brewer said she would not accept a lieutenant governor offer.)
“I thought that was a good thing and I fought strongly for it a long time ago, but I see now that it’s coming back around. I think it’s a good idea,” Brewer said in an interview. “I thought it was really important because the way elections are run — if you’ve got a governor of one party and the secretary of state was of another party and something should happen, then you’d lose party control.”
Ironically, Brewer became governor through that exact circumstance.
The Republican ascended to the governorship in 2009 from the Secretary of State’s Office when Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano was tapped by President Barack Obama to run the Department of Homeland Security.
As Mesnard mentioned, she’s far from the only secretary of state to become governor since 1977. Here’s a timeline of all the instances:
1977: Raúl Castro resigned the governorship when he was named U.S. Ambassador to Argentina.
1978: Wesley Bolin, the secretary of state who succeeded Castro, died six months into office, making then-Attorney General Bruce Babbitt governor.
1988: Republican Gov. Evan Mecham was impeached, leading to a takeover by Democratic Secretary of State Rose Mofford.
1997: Republican Gov. Fife Symington was convicted on seven counts of bank fraud and resigned, handing off the reins to fellow Republican Secretary of State Jane Dee Hull.
2009: Napolitano resigned to take the job in Obama’s cabinet, making Brewer governor.
Now, that conundrum will no longer cast a shadow over Arizona politics.
Gubernatorial candidates have to announce their lieutenant governor running mates no later than 60 days before the election.
And when in office, they have to appoint their lieutenant governor to be:
Their chief of staff, or
The head of the Arizona Department of Administration, or
Any other existing position in the cabinet
But why the vague third option? Mesnard said it was a concession to a holdout Democrat who helped put the bill over the finish line.
“My initial design was to have them head the Department of Administration, because ADOA is plugged into every aspect of the executive branch from payroll to H.R. to contract bidding. If you want someone training to be governor, that seemed like the perfect place to me,” Mesnard said. “While the Secretary of State’s Office is an important office, it’s not really, like, the best training ground for becoming governor overnight. It’s largely an administrative role with narrow responsibilities.”
And while the governor will choose what role their lieutenant will play in their administration in six months, right now most of the discussion in political circles is focused on the electoral impact of the candidates’ choices.
How to pick a lieutenant governor
We spoke with half a dozen consultants for both Republicans and Democrats who shared their thoughts.
There’s little consensus around who the candidates will pick, but most seem to agree that there is little upside in the choice — much like picking a vice president. (Who could forget Arizona Sen. John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate in the 2008 presidential election?)
“Nobody votes based on who someone chooses as their running mate,” Gaelle Esposito, a Democratic consultant at Creosote Partners, told us. “The selection of a running mate either reinforces a preexisting narrative about a candidate or helps to create a new narrative around that candidate that they’ve been trying to create.”
Hobbs has been working for the last several years to paint herself as a bipartisan leader “who’s just doing what’s best for Arizona,” Esposito noted. While she could still pick a left-leaning member of the party, it’s probably unlikely.
For Biggs, it could mean two things. He could pick someone who’s from a different faction of the party and try to shed his extremist image, as it appears he’s trying to do based on his rhetoric in the Republican primary debate this month.
Or he could double down and please his Turning Point USA and Freedom Caucus backers by picking an ideologically similar running mate from the right wing.
“When your entire campaign is seemingly run by Turning Point, I find it hard for him to be able to select anyone from the kind of McCain Republican wing — and I don’t see anyone from that wing signing on,” Democratic consultant Eric Chalmers said.
But plenty of Republicans see it differently — like Copper State Consulting founder Stan Barnes — who doesn’t necessarily see ideology as the key factor. Instead, he thinks geography will play a much more important role.
So does Democratic consultant Matt Grodsky.
“I think what you’re looking for as a candidate in either party is someone who rounds you out geographically,” he said. “You want to make sure you’re covering your bases when it comes to rural Arizona or counties outside the great state of Maricopa.”
Seeing that both Hobbs and Biggs are from the Phoenix metro area, it may be wise to look to the rural outposts as political strategy. There are some legitimate possibilities — like Yavapai County Sheriff David Rhodes — for Republicans, but not too many for Democrats.
But Barnes added that at the end of the day, the candidates will have to make their choices not only on optics, but along the lines of more basic considerations.
“I think the unwritten variable is each candidate will choose the person they like, not so much the person that fits the suit. Someone they get along with who is trustworthy and supportive,” Barnes said. “It’ll be fun to see if Gov. Hobbs and the Republican nominee go down the consultant-directed path of making a choice.”
What would that “consultant-directed path” be?
“On the Republican side, the consultant is going to say, ‘You gotta choose a woman to be your running mate, and it’d be handy if she didn’t look like you and wasn’t from the same zip code,’” Barnes noted. “The shoe fits Gov. Hobbs as well. She’ll probably pick a man and someone who is not in Phoenix — but not necessarily. Maybe someone with a law enforcement background, maybe somebody who is a good debater and public speaker.”
That last characteristic is hardly a swipe at Hobbs — it’s well-recognized on both sides of the aisle that Hobbs is a little lacking in the public speaking charisma department.
A handful of names in both parties were tossed around during our conversations.
Neither campaign responded to our request for comment. But here are the names that are sparking a lot of chatter among the political class.
The potential shortlist
Hobbs — Mesa Mayor John Giles
Interestingly, one of the most mentioned names on the Democratic side is actually a Republican.
Is that even possible? Well, yes. The Arizona Constitution doesn’t say anything about a lieutenant governor being in the same party as the gubernatorial candidate.
A Democratic state committeeman told us that Giles is “legitimately a name that’s been floated in the upper circles of the state party.”
Giles has pushed back against the MAGA wing of his party and even endorsed Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Much like Hobbs, he’s moderate, disciplined and has a practical approach to government from more than a decade of leading Mesa.
Hobbs — Tempe Mayor Corey Woods
Several consultants said they had heard Woods was in discussion — and it’s a name we’ve been hearing quite a bit.
Part of the Woods appeal — besides the added diversity and experience in executive government — is that he isn’t particularly ideological.
“He has his alliances, has been around a long time and doesn’t fall squarely in either side — he’d make for a very safe pick,” Esposito said.
Hobbs — Tucson Mayor Regina Romero
The mayor of Southern Arizona’s largest city has a lot of connections in progressive and labor spaces and has her own organizing machine in a key Democratic stronghold, politicos note.
This pick would be a reinforcer of the party’s left wing aimed at driving turnout in strong blue areas — which makes it seem less likely than a choice that would attract independents.
On top of that, Dem consultants noted they’d be surprised if Hobbs picked a woman for her ticket.
Biggs — Arizona Corporation Commissioner Lea Márquez Peterson
In many respects, Márquez Peterson would be the perfect pick for Biggs, per Barnes.
For one, she’s a a statewide officeholder in her own right who understands politics, negotiations and spent nearly ten years as the President of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber.
Not to mention, she hails from Southern Arizona and she’s a Latina.
“She checks a lot of boxes, on top of being a very nice and competent person,” Barnes argued. “But I mean this is a personal decision by whoever the nominee is for the Republicans — and they often don’t listen to me. Who knows what they’re really gonna do.”
Biggs — Congressman David Schweikert
Schweikert is running against Biggs and seems poised to lose in the primary — but he hasn’t dropped out yet.
Could it be to nab a spot on the ticket?
It seems like a good match on paper, but Schweikert has pretty vociferously called out Biggs’ extremism and as recently as last week said Biggs has “no path to become governor.”
Grodsky, the Democratic consultant, told us he thought Schweikert might have jumped into the race to play the moderate card and siphon off votes from candidate Karrin Taylor Robson — who dropped out months ago — and be rewarded with the lieutenant governor spot.
Which makes for a great transition to our next rumored name.
Biggs — Karrin Taylor Robson
For Biggs, there are plenty of perks to picking businesswoman Taylor Robson — she’s a woman, she’s more moderate than Biggs yet still mostly aligned on conservative ideology and she could help fundraise from potential pro-business donors.
Grodsky added to his grand thesis of the Republican primary:
“I’ve had a theory for a while that Robson was getting out hopefully having made a deal on the lieutenant governor side. I also had the theory that Schweikert was in to work that same angle, so who the hell knows.”
Is that why she dropped out so early?
After the primary elections on July 21, candidates have 45 days to announce their nominees — so expect to hear announcements some time in late July or August.
It’s up to you, voters: The proposed special legislative session is a bust, legislative Democrats and Republicans both confirmed yesterday. The attempt to strike a grand bargain and head off several ballot measures around public schools, unions and vouchers failed after Congressman and GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Andy Biggs started blasting the deal Republicans had negotiated and put up his own “Biggs Deal,” as we reported yesterday. House Speaker Steve Montenegro and Senate President Warren Petersen both endorsed the scaled-back Biggs Deal yesterday, which tanked the actual deal that they had been negotiating. Democrats declared the pivot in negotiations a “failure of leadership” from legislative Republicans. Signatures for the voucher reform effort, Protect Education Act, are due on Thursday.
“While Speaker Montenegro and President Petersen stated they were negotiating in good faith – we now know the truth. There will be no special session. Instead, Republicans backtracked on the terms of a deal which were not only widely reported, but which they themselves put together,” legislative Democrats said in a press release.
Too busy fighting algae: President Donald Trump appears to be using what 12News’ Brahm Resnik calls “bank shot endorsements” for Arizona candidates. Trump reposted the Arizona Police Association’s endorsement of Republican Gina Swoboda in the secretary of state race, without adding any endorsement of his own. (Trump endorsed Swoboda for AZGOP chair back in 2024, then endorsed her again in the race for Congressional District 1 this year. But then he co-endorsed her Republican primary opponent, former NFL kicker Jay Feely, in the same race — which was part of the reason Swoboda dropped out and ran for secretary of state instead.) Trump did another “bankshot” endorsement two weeks ago to boost Rodney Glassman’s run for the GOP nomination in the attorney general race.
Gallego in the clear: The U.S. Senate Ethics Committee said it found no evidence that Sen. Ruben Gallego engaged in sexual misconduct or violated campaign finance laws, as alleged by Florida Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, the Republic’s Stephanie Murray reports. Undeterred, Luna doubled down and told Gallego to “keep raising for your legal defense fund,” while Gallego said Luna’s complaints were “right-wing conspiracies peddled by far-right activists.”
2026 is the new 2020: The U.S. Supreme Court announced on Monday it will review the strict voting laws the Arizona Legislature passed after the 2020 election, per the Associated Press. That’ll include the proof-of-citizenship requirement for state and local elections. Meanwhile, a federal judge said the Trump administration would violate people’s privacy if it used an immigration database to find noncitizens who register to vote, Votebeat reports. That’s the same database Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap says he used to identify 207 people he thinks aren’t citizens.
2026 is the new 2022: The Pinal County Recorder’s Office printed more than 1,400 ballots with errors, Kevin Reagan reports for 12News. An investigation by the recorder’s office found a vendor hired by the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office gave them the wrong information, although Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said the counties are responsible for verifying the information used in their ballots. The error only affected precinct committeeman races, but it quickly brought to mind Pinal County’s blunder in the 2022 elections when polling locations ran out of ballots.
Prop 139 at work: Arizona is seeing roughly the same number of abortions as it did before the U.S. Supreme Court undid Roe v. Wade in 2022, Emma Whitney reports for Cronkite News. Abortions initially dropped to about 13,900 in 2023, but then rose to 17,600 last year, per the Guttmacher Institute. Experts say the rise may be due to people coming from more restrictive states to take advantage of protections under the voter-approved Prop 139. Across the country, the total is now 20% higher than before the Dobbs decision, which may be due to telehealth services that help bypass restrictions in some states.
If you were wondering who Andy Biggs wants on his slate while he runs for the state’s top political gig… Well, you’re in the wrong place.
We don’t know! Nobody knows!
The texts about the “Biggs Slate” that many Republicans have been receiving lately are about as real as the “Biggs Deal” on school vouchers. That is to say, not real at all.
So who’s putting out this fake slate?
We don’t know that, either.
But we can almost guarantee it’s one of these “real Republicans.”
