Republicans have sensed for weeks that they were going to get beat in this year’s midterm elections.
But what happened Tuesday wasn’t a beating.
It was a massacre.
Every single Democratic statewide candidate came out of the gates with leads so substantial that Republicans were basically conceding moments after the first results dropped, even though only a fraction of the votes had been counted.
Democrats appear to be sweeping everything from the Governor’s Office to the state mine inspector position.
They also dominated nearly every swingable district in the state — from Congress down to the state House.
And even long-shot candidates in districts considered outside the realm of possibility for Democrats held slight advantages as Tuesday night turned into Wednesday morning.
The uncomfortable premonition that election night was going to suck was already reflected in Republicans’ fragmented event plans.
Most major Democratic candidates and statewide officials were gathered at a Hilton resort at the base of the Phoenix Mountain Preserve.
The Republican “victory” parties, on the other hand, were scattered across the Valley as GOP candidates adopted an every-man-for-himself approach, seemingly hoping that at least one of those parties would be celebrating a victory.
Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs’ supporters gathered in an outdoor courtyard abutting the American Way barbecue restaurant in Chandler — a venue previously graced by conservative powerhouse Kari Lake during her own failed gubernatorial run in 2022.
That smokehouse is where, somewhat poetically, Biggs learned he was likely to get smoked himself — the first 8 p.m. ballot drop showed Gov. Katie Hobbs leading him by an astounding 20 percentage points.
About 40 minutes later, the outgoing congressman took the stage.
Biggs acknowledged the numbers were “not real good for us right now,” but planted a seed of hope that things could potentially turn around later.
“We would never tell you something that's not true,” he said. “We have a tough hill to climb in order to win this battle, but we could not have been prouder to serve with people like you.”
Andy Biggs delivering a not-quite-concession speech.
Besides Biggs’ lieutenant governor pick, Sine Kerr, the only other candidate in attendance was GOP attorney general hopeful Warren Petersen, who, like Biggs, quickly realized he had no chance of closing the devastating gap between him and Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes.
He blunted his looming defeat by pointing to some Republican lawmaker-referred ballot measures leading in early returns.
But the early results of those referrals were mixed at best.
A few of them look likely to pass, including a measure to restrict school sports teams and bathrooms by biological sex, and another to designate drug cartels as “terrorist organizations.”
Voters also seemed keen on capping municipal grocery taxes and restricting photo radar.
But Republican proposals to ban affirmative action, impose new voter ID requirements and dictate how much schools spend in the classroom were all trailing.
Petersen, the outgoing Senate president, urged supporters at Biggs’ election night party not to lose hope, calling on volunteers to help cure ballots in a last-ditch effort to preserve Republican control of the state Capitol.
“I want you to know that we did everything we can. Now, it looks like we're on track to lose these executive seats again, maybe even more,” Petersen said. “But we really cannot lose the Legislature … we lose the Legislature, we will be California in six months.”
Well ... cowabunga.
Democrats are poised to take solid majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, giving them trifecta control of the Capitol complex.
As of around 3 a.m. Wednesday, Democrats had leads in 37 of 60 House seats, and 20 of 30 Senate seats.
The Associated Press had called 48 of Arizona’s 90 legislative seats as of around 3 a.m.
Not all of those races are a done deal — and several of those leads are so tenuous that they will almost certainly revert to Republicans as ballot-counting continues.
But there’s no doubt Democrats will take a majority in both chambers.
The last time Democrats held either chamber was in the Senate in 1992 — the same year the world’s first text message was sent.
They haven’t held the Governor’s Office, the House and the Senate since 1966, when the U.S. was fighting the Vietnam War.
Spotted at the Dems’ party: Senate minority leader (and likely new Senate president) Priya Sundareshan sporting what she called her “trifecta bolo tie” studded with three turquoise stones.
Arizona Democrats’ legislative success mirrors what happened nationally: Democrats won control of both the U.S. Senate and House, where they could secure their largest majority in 18 years.
In Phoenix, the Dems’ gathering turned out to be a jubilant celebration of the blue tsunami that rocked both the nation and the state.
On stage, the party’s top candidates hollered to the packed ballroom that the people of America and Arizona had rejected President Donald Trump and the Republicans who remained loyal to him as the Epstein files have captivated the nation, the Iran War has spiraled into a complete embarrassment and gas prices have skyrocketed.
“It’s sad that it had to get so fucked up for this to happen,” Democratic Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari told us about the state of the nation.
While most of the state’s congressional races hadn’t been called by the time we went to bed this morning, Democrats held commanding leads in several competitive districts.
Democrat Amish Shah dominated in Scottsdale’s Congressional District 1, currently held by outgoing Republican Congressman David Schweikert. And Democrat JoAnna Mendoza appears to have knocked out Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani in Southern Arizona’s Congressional District 6.
But winning a swing district is one thing.
Cutting into solidly Republican districts is another.
As of early this morning, Democrat Jonathan Nez held a razor-thin lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane in northeastern Arizona’s Congressional District 2.
Republican Mark Lamb had a narrow lead over Democrat Elizabeth Lee in the GOP stronghold of Congressional District 5.
And Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia trailed Republican Congressman Abe Hamadeh by just 2 percentage points in the deep-red Congressional District 8, which covers the West Valley.
In fact, of Arizona’s nine seats in Congress, the only Republican we can definitively say won his election was Paul Gosar, who represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation.
A few races that illustrate just how bad it was for Republicans:
Mark Lamb struggles in CD5
As the Republican nominee in a deep-red district that Biggs has represented for nearly 10 years, the contest should have been a shoo-in for Lamb, who won the primary with Trump’s endorsement.
But he wasn’t a typical GOP candidate.
During the campaign, he was dogged by scandalous news reports of his allegedly inappropriate sexual behavior, screenshots of his sexting with various women and threatening to use the power that came with his former position as the Pinal County sheriff to ruin their lives if they told, and rumors that he and his wife were swingers.
And on top of that, it seems that he’s been spending quite a bit of time in Tennessee building a ranch.
Lee, a nurse whose campaign raised $370,000 to Lamb’s $1.7 million, has a narrow lead over the former sheriff of Pinal County going into Wednesday.
The legislative races
And in Arizona’s legislative races, Democrats are ahead in a number of seats that were considered safe for Republicans.
Republican Sen. TJ Shope who was in line to become the next Senate president if Republicans maintained their majority, is at risk of losing his own seat in Pinal County’s Legislative District 16.
It’s a competitive but Republican-leaning district where he won comfortably two years ago. Yet, he trailed Democrat Elaine Aldrete by about 2 percentage points in early returns.
Several other Republican lawmakers were fighting to keep seats in typically reliably Republican districts:
In Republican House Speaker Steve Montenegro’s deep-red Legislative District 29, Democrat Christine Scianna was the top vote-getter, followed by Montenegro, edging out Republican Rep. James Taylor by about 1,000 votes.
Montenegro’s seatmate, Republican Sen. Janae Shamp led Democrat Eric Stafford by nearly 3 percentage points.
LD27, a potential sleeper Democratic House pickup through a single-shot strategy, saw Democrat Deborah Howard lead both Republican incumbents, Lisa Fink and Tony Rivero, by more than 5,000 votes.
Republican Sen. Kevin Payne trailed Democratic challenger Kyle Clayton by about 6 percentage points in the same district.
Democrats are poised to get another huge pickup in a swing district, too.
All three Republican lawmakers who represent LD4 — Sen. Carine Werner and Reps. Matt Gress and Pamela Carter — are trailing Democrats Aaron Lieberman in the Senate by 6,000 votes and Karen Gresham and Tammy Caputi in the House by about 8,000 votes.
And one legislative race serves as evidence that voters were truly fed up with the MAGA movement.
After Petersen opted to run for attorney general and abdicate his East Valley Senate seat, Biggs’ 26-year-old daughter Mylie Biggs became the heir apparent in the safe Republican district, running unopposed in the GOP primary.
Yes, this is the same Mylie Biggs who said on a podcast about two years ago that women shouldn’t hold office, which can’t have helped her case with voters.
She trailed Democrat Stephanie Walsh by 3 percentage points early Wednesday.
Her last name was supposed to be her ticket to elected office — but it might have even backfired, considering how badly Biggs was trounced in the state’s most high-profile race.
From the top of the ticket to the bottom, and from father to daughter, Arizona voters — even ones who consistently vote for Republicans — were clearly disgusted with the party of Trump and Biggs.