The power players — 2026
Your primer to the good, the bad and the ugly at the Arizona Capitol.
Good morning, readers!
Two years ago, we sent you a guide to the “power players” at the Legislature that was among our most-read editions of all time.1
A lot has changed in the past two years — new lawmakers, new leaders, new political dynamics.
And some things never change, like the legislative process, the influence of lobbyists, and the pettiness of our politicians.
But it’s always good to have a refresher!
So today, we’ve got a write-through of that story explaining the Capitol power players for 2026.
Also, today is our final post on Substack!
Starting Monday, the Agenda family of newsletters will be coming to you from Beehiiv, our new email platform. We’re super stoked about this move, which will save us some money — but more importantly, will allow us to build better emails and an online home to share tools, resources, stories and more outside of the daily email blast.
Nothing should change for you readers and paid subscribers.
But if you have any problems or questions, please reach out to info@arizonaagenda.com and we’ll fix any glitches that arise.
Enjoy!
In some ways, the Arizona Capitol is like a small town.
A town of about 1,000 residents, with another 10,000 seasonal visitors and tourists, where everyone spends all their time at the town hall. About 90 of the core residents are on the town council, which is bitterly divided. The rest work there or show up frequently to argue about things. Everyone is all up in each others’ business, and decades-old grudges and alliances color every interaction.
For outsiders, it can be hard to tell who’s who and what really matters in these town squabbles.
But we residents of the Capitol know who’s the mayor, sheriff and judge. We know who’s the crazy neighbor and who’s a quiet power broker.
So, before the 2026 legislative session begins on Monday, we’ll introduce you to a few of the other residents so you don’t feel like an outsider.
The big three
Three politicians at the Capitol wield far more power than the others: Senate President Warren Petersen, House Speaker Steve Montenegro and Gov. Katie Hobbs.
As the elected leaders of their respective chambers, Petersen and Montenegro have immense power to do just about anything within their buildings. They control their chambers’ multi-million dollar budgets and can hire and fire the entire staff at will. They can add or remove lawmakers from prestigious committee positions and can strip away a lawmaker’s access to resources or even an office in the building.
And perhaps most importantly, they control the flow of legislation in their respective chambers, and can singlehandedly ensure a bill dies, or that it gets every opportunity to succeed.
But without the governor, no bill or budget can become law.2
Knowing these three people and a little about their motivations and goals will give you insight into how the whole system works.
Senate President Warren Petersen
Petersen has held the title of Senate President since 2023, but he may not hold it much longer.
He’s in the midst of a contested primary election to challenge Kris Mayes for attorney general, and he has repeatedly suggested that his time as the chamber’s leader is running short (though he has implied he won’t resign from the Legislature altogether).
Petersen has a campaign trail to hit, and juggling fundraising and kissing babies with the responsibilities of running a chamber has been the downfall of many a politician. We don’t expect him to make that mistake.
Two Republicans are waiting in the wings for the chance to take over:
Republican Sen. TJ Shope, the current president pro tempore (it’s basically the president’s hand-picked fill-in), has been around the Capitol since 2013 and has served as the pro tempore in both the House and Senate — meaning he knows what the job of leading a chamber entails. Despite being a relatively moderate Republican, he has strong relationships with all sides of the caucus, and he claims to have the votes lined up to ascend to the president’s chair, whenever Petersen is ready to step down.
Republican Sen. John Kavanagh, the longtime budget guru and new Senate majority leader, is also hoping to take over. You couldn’t call Kavanagh a moderate — he’s a fiscal hawk who revels in the culture wars (Read: bathroom bills, etc). But his style of populist conservatism is more Tea Party-flavored than MAGA. Much like Shope, his experience, accessibility and easy-going attitude make him widely liked at the Capitol, even by Democrats who hate his politics.
But Petersen hasn’t pulled the trigger on stepping down just yet.
Staying on as Senate president, at least for a while longer, means he’s getting a lot of free press. And he’s gonna need it as he faces his currently better-funded opponent in the GOP primary for AG, Rodney Glassman.
And as long as he remains a lawmaker, you can expect much of the legislation he pushes to highlight his priorities — and Mayes’ failings — as attorney general.
House Speaker Steve Montenegro
Montenegro is a fascinating character.
He first joined the Legislature in 2009, and quickly became a rising star in the GOP as the only Latino Republican at the time and a champion for Arizona’s notorious anti-immigrant law, SB1070.
He rose to the ranks of majority leader before suffering a sexting-scandal-related downfall while running for Congress in 2018. (He maintains he never solicited the topless photos that a staffer sent him.)
After a few years off, he reappeared as an older, wiser politician who employed a servant leadership style of boosting other Republicans (who would then be loyal to him).
It worked. He won back his old seat at the Capitol, and just two years later, ascended to the highest position in the House.
Still, he presides over an unruly chamber and a divided caucus, and has already survived at least one threatened coup from the Freedom Caucus wing of his party.
But the dust seems to have settled on that battle, especially as two of the House’s main rabble rousers — Joseph Chaplik and Alexander Kolodin — have their eyes set on higher office.
As one of the few leaders not running for anything new, Montenegro has the potential to be a stabilizing force in our divided government this year.
His reputation and chance at keeping the speakership in 2027 depend on his ability to hold his caucus together and keep them happy — while actually getting Republican bills and a budget signed by the Democratic governor.
Governor Katie Hobbs
Hobbs enters the final year of her first term weakened by years of battles with Republican legislators.
She’s the only governor in recent history to operate without a full, permanent cabinet — her picks to lead state agencies have been harangued by the Republican lawmakers who have largely refused to confirm them.
But not all of her wounds have been inflicted by Republicans.
Hobbs’ administration has been plagued by missteps and self-inflicted wounds, including accusations of pay-to-play schemes and unchecked fraud within Arizona’s social service net. And Republicans are sure to use this legislative session to highlight those scandals in any way possible.
Still, as a governor in her last guaranteed year in office, she’s a force to be reckoned with.
Hobbs has made liberal use of her veto stamp in her first three years, earning her the title of “veto queen” and showing she won’t compromise on her core beliefs.
But to win reelection in a mostly Republican state, she’ll have to compromise somewhere — and likely options include conforming Arizona’s tax code to federal tax cuts. Already, she’s attempting to take credit for popular portions of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” including dropping income taxes from tipped wages.
Unlike lawmakers, she doesn’t have to worry about ending the session early to hit the campaign trail. But a dragged-out budget fight that leads to even a short-term government shutdown would be disastrous for her campaign.
With her reelection on the line, expect Hobbs to be more willing to cut deals with Republican lawmakers than in past sessions.
The trouble makers
Some of the Capitol denizens show up get work done — others seemingly show up to ensure their enemies don’t get work done.
Republican Sen. Jake Hoffman is a good example. Of the roughly 80 bills he has filed in the last three years, two have become law. More than a dozen have met Hobbs’ veto — a fact he seems to relish.
But more often than not, Hoffman’s fire is trained on his fellow Republicans — he has sown and exploited divisions within his own caucus and is currently organizing primary challenges to several statewide Republican officials he deems not pure enough.
With Republicans’ thin majorities in the House and Senate, a handful of troublemakers can screw up the whole Republican agenda. And Hoffman has a loyal posse of fellow Freedom Caucus Republicans like Kolodin, Chaplik, and John Gillette — none of whom are seeking reelection this year.
Keep an eye on Republican Sen. Janae Shamp, who was voted out of her position as majority leader late last year after opposing the budget that Republicans had negotiated with Hobbs.
Kicking Shamp out of her leadership position may come back to bite Republicans.
To paraphrase former President Lyndon Johnson, “It’s probably better to have (her) inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.”
Committee chairs
One rule of thumb at the Capitol is that bills don’t die because they’re voted down.
They die from not getting a vote.
Chairing a committee is a privilege bestowed by the chamber leaders, and chairmanships are often the price that lawmakers exact in exchange for supporting a candidate for speaker or president.
Needless to say, only Republicans are allowed to be chairmen at the Republican-controlled Legislature.
New committees can pop up every year to reflect the interests and expertise of members. For example, this year, the House created a new Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Committee and a new Rural Economic Development Committee.
And committee chairs can singlehandedly stop even the most popular bill in its tracks by keeping it off their committee agenda.
The speaker and president generally assign bills to committees based on the topic,3 and each year, committee chairs decide whether to hear the bills, giving committee chairs an effective veto over any ideas within their policy domain.
Want to run a bill about education? You’ll need to win over House Education Committee Chair Matt Gress and Senate Education Committee Chair Hildy Angius to get a hearing.
For environmental bills, you’ve gotta go through Rep. Gail Griffin and Shope.
Changing the criminal law? You probably gotta get Rep. Quang Nguyen and Sen. Wendy Rogers to give your bill a hearing in their House and Senate judiciary committees, respectively.
Want to make a new environmental crime? Your bill might end up assigned to both the environment and judiciary committees.
The chair of the Rules Committee is next-level powerful. Every single bill has to go through the Rules Committee in both the Senate and House, on top of the other committee assignments.
Rules Committee members are only supposed to consider whether a bill is “constitutional and in proper form,” not debate its merits. It’s a rubber-stamp committee — assuming your bill gets a hearing at all. That’s up to the chair.
But with great power comes great responsibility. In the House, Laurin Hendrix holds the position. In the Senate, it’s David Farnsworth.
The influencers
Some people just naturally have clout.
A small group of politicians at the Capitol wield more influence than others — either because of their positions, skills or personalities.
The House and Senate Democratic leaders — Rep. Oscar de los Santos and Sen. Priya Sundareshan — are examples of being inner circle by the nature of their positions and the fact that there’s a Democratic governor in office.
The chairs of the appropriation committees in the House and Senate — David Livingston and Farnsworth, respectively — wield outsized influence, as they’re the negotiators on the budget process.
Some lawmakers build their clout by sticking around for years, or leaving the Capitol and coming back older and wiser — like Republican Reps. Jeff Weninger or Tony Rivero.
Others are simply well-liked by their colleagues, like Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez.
Still others gain influence by being willing to cut a deal across the aisle, like Democratic Rep. Alma Hernandez or Republican Rep. Walt Blackman.
The lobbyists
Lobbyists generally fall into four categories. Some types are more distasteful than others, but despite their unsavory reputations, professional lobbyists are not all as bad as they’re made out to be.
There are some shady characters (who we won’t call out by name today). But mostly, lobbyists are kind of like idealistic salespeople. Except the thing they’re selling is a bill and the customer is lawmakers.
Hired guns: These are the lobbyists you’re probably imagining. They can work at giant firms or as solo operators. Some will represent any company, industry or issue that can pay. Others work only for progressive causes or conservative ones or within certain policy niches. Their unifying trait is that they represent multiple clients and provide access to and influence over lawmakers.
Industry/issue: These lobbyists work for a company, group or cause, and besides their relationships, their main value is their knowledge. A lobbyist for a company like Airbnb, or a think tank like the Goldwater Institute, for example, would fall into this category. Lobbying is their main job, and they only have one client or cause.
Liaison: They are government employees representing government bodies, like the courts, a city or a state department. They often pull double duty with other tasks within their office.
Grassroots: Activists come in many forms. Some are paid to organize and lobby full-time on behalf of a union, trade or cause. Others are just citizens with a bone to pick and don’t have to register as lobbyists. But the defining feature of a grassroots lobbying organization is the ability to bring a crowd.
Remember, the categories aren’t always mutually exclusive, and the different types of lobbyists can all engage in different ways.
If Airbnb wants to pass a bill in Arizona, for example, it might find a local hired gun to team up with its in-house expert to get them in the door to woo lawmakers and also pay a grassroots pro-worker or entrepreneur group that can bring a mob to the Capitol in support and buy dinner for the liaison to the AG’s office to try to tamp down that office’s opposition to the bill at the Capitol.
The staff
The army of legislative staffers who do the real work are often the overlooked power players at the Capitol.
From the chiefs of staff who set the direction and strategy, to the clerks who choreograph the daily hearings, to the lawyers who write the bills, to the interns4 who summarize bills so that lawmakers can understand them, it takes several hundred people to bring the annual legislative session to life.
In this ecosystem, even lower-level positions wield influence. Assistants act as gatekeepers — if you’re trying to get an emergency meeting with a lawmaker, it helps to be friends with the person in charge of their schedule.
But if there’s one name you must know, it’s still Richard Stavneak, the director of the Joint Legislative Budget Committee, which tracks the economy, builds the budget and analyzes the fiscal impact of legislation. Stavneak has been doing the job for a long time, and his knowledge of the state budget is unmatched.
When he speaks, both Republicans and Democrats listen closely.
The Capitol press corps
About a dozen reporters keep an eye on all the chaos. Another dozen or so pop in regularly for Capitol stories that touch on their beats.
A decade ago, there were twice as many reporters. Two decades ago, it was double that.
In those 20 years, the number of lawmakers has remained the same. The state budget has roughly tripled.
We won’t do a full roll-call of every reporter at the Capitol, but if there’s one byline you should recognize, it’s Howard Fischer, who runs Capitol Media Services, a wire service that feeds almost every newspaper in the state (except the Republic). He produces more content in a day than the rest of the press corps combined, and he’s the “dean” of the Capitol press corps.
But over the past few years, we’ve lost many of the pros who have covered the Capitol for decades — most recently, Capitol veteran Mary Jo Pitzl, who took a buyout at the Republic.
Gone are the days of multiple daily print newspapers, each with a team of Capitol beat reporters and investigative journalists lurking around the Capitol.
Those of us who are lucky (or crazy) enough to still be doing this gig are increasingly working for scrappy startups (ahem) that desperately need your support.
Reporters are your eyes and ears at the Capitol. We keep the politicians honest and the system fair.
But we’re vastly outnumbered.
If you can afford it, please subscribe to a local newspaper, donate to a nonprofit news organization, or click the button below.
The original version of this piece was even excerpted in Republican Sen. John Kavanagh’s book, “State Legislatures: An Owner’s Manual.”
Every rule has exceptions. In this case, certain pieces of legislation can be ratified by voters, rather than the governor. And with enough votes, lawmakers can override a gubernatorial veto and enact laws or a budget against the governor’s will.
Again, there are exceptions. The speaker and president decide which bills go to which committees. They can send a bill to a friendly committee or a hostile one.
Fun fact: Hank was once a Capitol intern who ran the cameras for committee hearings.
I kept the Agenda article from two years ago and refer to it from time to time. It's always nice when we assistants get a shout-out. That doesn't happen very often!
I would add that as the number of Capitol reporters has dwindled, the number of lobbying firms and lobbyists has skyrocketed. Just one utility bill brings out a gaggle of lobbyists to muscle it through.