Monday marked the deadline for candidates to turn in nomination petition signatures to run for office, and nearly 200 candidates want to represent you at Arizona’s Capitol next year.
But based on the candidate field, about a third of state lawmakers already look comfortably positioned to keep the same job they have now.
That leaves roughly 60 seats up for reshuffling as lawmakers try to switch chambers, run for another office, retire or fend off primary challengers.
Arizona only has a handful of competitive districts that could realistically elect either a Democrat or a Republican in November. For the roughly three-quarters of the state’s voters who don't live in a competitive legislative district, the real choice comes in the July primary election, where voters choose between candidates from the same party.
Before those decisions sneak up on us, here’s what the 2026 field says about who’s staying, who’s moving on and who might be coming back.
Of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts, only seven are truly competitive. Find out if you live in one here.
The more things change…
A handful of lawmakers so far face no competition in either the primary or general elections. 1
That includes Democratic Reps. Sarah Liguori and Aaron Marquez, who represent central Phoenix, plus Republican Reps. Michael Way and Neal Carter, who represent the East Valley. In the West Valley, Democratic Sen. Eva Diaz should coast through both the primary and general elections with no opposition.
And most of Arizona’s legislative districts are so lopsidedly partisan that it would take a miracle for the opposing party to win a seat, so all the action is in the primary election.
Many of your lawmakers don’t have a primary challenger.
Take Republican Sen. Mark Finchem, who represents the ruby red Legislative District 1 in Yavapai County. He faces no Republican challenger, and Republicans outnumber Democrats in his district by a nearly 3-1 margin.
So an upset in November is extremely unlikely.
Same for Republican Sen. Wendy Rogers, who represents the rural LD7, which stretches from Flagstaff through Sedona down to Oracle in Southern Arizona. No Republicans are running to challenge her, and her district contains about 2.5 Republicans for every Democrat.
She has a Democratic challenger in November, but it’s a long shot.
Republican Sen. Jake Hoffman, leader of the Freedom Caucus, didn’t field a Republican challenger. While he faces a Democrat in November, his victory is pretty much assured, given that he represents one of the most conservative districts in the state.
The same concept applies to many deep blue districts.
Democratic Sen. Catherine Miranda is running unopposed in the primary in the West Valley’s LD11. While she’ll face a Republican on the ballot in November, it’s unlikely they’ll stand a chance in her district, where there are almost three times as many Democrats as Republicans.
LD11’s current state Reps. Junelle Cavero and Oscar De Los Santos are also running unopposed to keep their House seats, with two long-shot Republican challengers awaiting them in November.
Safe Senate Republicans | Safe Senate Democrats | Safe House Republicans | Safe House Democrats |
|---|---|---|---|
Mark Finchem (LD1) Wendy Rogers (LD7) David C. Farnsworth (LD10) Sen. Jake Hoffman (LD15) Timothy “Tim” Dunn (LD25) Frank Carroll (LD28) Janae Shamp (LD29) | Eva Diaz (LD22) Catherine Miranda (LD11) Priya Sundareshan (LD18) Rosanna Gabaldón (LD21) Analise Ortiz (LD24) Flavio Bravo (LD26) | Michael Way & Neal Carter (LD15) Michael Carbone & Nick Kupper (LD25) James Taylor & Steve Montenegro (LD29) | Rep. Aaron Márquez & Rep. Sarah Liguori (LD5) Rep. Junelle Cavero & Rep. Oscar De Los Santos (LD11) Rep. Nancy Gutierrez & Rep. Christopher Mathis (LD18) Rep. Cesar Aguilar & Rep. Quantá Crews (LD26) |
Clocking out
Some lawmakers are ditching the Legislature for a chance at higher office (or, at least, a higher-paying office). And some are simply calling it quits.
Senate President Warren Petersen is leaving the top post in the Senate to run for the Attorney General’s Office.
Republican Rep. Alexander Kolodin is running for secretary of state. His seatmate, Joseph Chaplik, is running for Congress, leaving two coveted House seats open in their Scottsdale-based, Republican-leaning district.
Meanwhile, Republican Reps. David Marshall and Ralph Heap are running for the Corporation Commission.2
Republican Rep. Jeff Weninger is looking to become the next mayor of Chandler.
And after 16 years at the Capitol, Chandler’s Republican Sen. JD Mesnard is trying to score a coveted job as justice of the peace (which pays about five times as much as the state Legislature).
And that low $24,000 per year base pay3 is pushing other lawmakers out of the Capitol as well.
Democratic Rep. Seth Blattman, who represents a competitive Mesa-based district, announced earlier this year that he won’t run for reelection, citing the low pay.
He joins nine other lawmakers who, as far as we can tell, are leaving and not seeking another office — including the Legislature’s longest-serving member, Democratic Sen. Lela Alston, who did her fist stint at the Capitol back in 1976.
The ol’ switcheroo
Another group of lawmakers is also hoping to get new jobs — but still at the Capitol.
Arizona imposes term limits on its lawmakers: They can serve four consecutive two-year terms in each chamber.
But it doesn’t impose a limit on how many times they can bounce from one chamber to the other.
For example, Republican Rep. Gail Griffin is once again looking to return to the state Senate after hitting her term limits in the House. She previously hit her term limits in the Senate after serving there from 2011 to 2019.4
So she’s hoping to swap seats with her fellow Cochise County Republican, Sen. David Gowan, who is leaving the Senate for the House this year. Gowan is also hitting his term limits in the Senate, so it’s a convenient arrangement for the two Republicans.
Same for Democratic Rep. Alma Hernandez. After eight years in the House, she’s hit her term limits, so she’s aiming to swap seats with fellow Tucson Democrat, Sen. Sally Ann Gonzales.
Others see an opportunity for a promotion of sorts.
As Senate seats open, some House members are eyeing a move.
With Weninger’s departure, Chandler Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby is hoping to move from the House and replace him in the Senate.
Republican Rep. Leo Biasiucci’s seatmate in his northwest Arizona district is leaving, so he’s also attempting to move to the Senate.
Democratic Sen. Mitzi Epstein’s departure from the Capitol leaves an opening for her seatmate, Democratic Rep. Patty Contreras, to move up a rung.
And as Democratic Sen. Theresa Hatathlie, who represents the Navajo Nation in LD6, retires, Democratic Rep. Myron Tsosie wants to fill her spot. But Tsosie will have competition from former lawmaker Jamecita Peshlakai, the daughter of his current seatmate, Democratic Rep. Mae Peshlakai.
Ghost of the Capitol’s past
Some former lawmakers are ready to make their big return after losing previous reelection campaigns.
Former Republican Sen. Anthony Kern wants his LD27 Senate seat back after ditching it to unsuccessfully run for Congress in 2024. He’ll have to fight the northwest Phoenix district’s current Sen. Kevin Payne for it.
And former Republican Rep. David Cook, who lost his primary bid against Rogers in 2024, is trying to get back into one of his district’s House seats as Marshall leaves to run for Corporation Commission.
After losing her seat in the competitive north Phoenix and Paradise Valley area’s LD4 last election, former Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh is running to take over Alston’s seat in the much more Democratic-friendly LD5, which covers central Phoenix.
Former Democratic Rep. Deborah Nardozzi served a short stint as LD8’s state representative after she was appointed to the Tempe-area spot in April 2024. While she didn’t run for election after her appointment ended, Nardozzi is now challenging Democratic Sen. Lauren Kuby for the district’s Senate seat.
Power to the people: State lawmakers are pushing for more local oversight of mass surveillance tools, the Arizona Mirror’s Jerod MacDonald-Evoy reports. Under HB2917, which is getting bipartisan support, cities and counties would have to let residents vote on whether to use automated license plate readers like Flock Safety cameras. Freedom Caucus member Sen. Jake Hoffman’s strike-everything amendment would not only require public hearings and a vote, it would also require a supermajority of local residents to approve the surveillance tools, which would make it all but impossible for those tools to end up being used.
Can’t just cherry pick: Maricopa County Sheriff Jerry Sheridan is trying to convince federal officials that his department no longer needs oversight to make sure it’s not as racist as it was under former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, which would open the door for cooperation agreements with ICE. Sheridan points to a handful of traffic stops to prove his point, but annual reviews of all the department’s enforcement data paints a different picture, the Arizona Luminaria’s Rafael Carranza reports.
Not just a Maricopa County thing: Down in Pima County, civil rights lawyers say sheriff’s deputies are sending people they encounter to the Border Patrol, even though Sheriff Chris Nanos repeatedly said his department doesn’t enforce immigration laws, Lookout’s John Washington reports.
“In one incident, five men on a construction company’s property told a security guard they were looking for work. The guard called both the Sheriff’s Department and Border Patrol. When sheriff’s deputies learned that Border Patrol wouldn’t arrive for more than an hour, they offered the men a ride to a Taco Bell — then told Border Patrol agents to meet them there and take the men into federal custody, according to the lawsuit,” Washington writes.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss: Under questioning from Democratic U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego, new Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said he sees “an opportunity to look at 2020 and make sure that anything that went wrong we can fix moving forward,” the Republic’s Ronald J. Hansen reports. It’s the latest indicator that the Trump administration and its allies, including Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap, are prepping another conspiracy-laden attempt to make people think elections are rigged.
Here we go, again. Just like last time, you’re gonna need seasoned reporters to get you through this mess. Support local journalism.
Don’t call it DOGE: Gov. Katie Hobbs expects to cut $100 million over the next three years through the Arizona Capacity and Efficiency Initiative, which will use tech like AI to streamline the state government. The initiative’s new director Amy Edwards Holmes told KJZZ’s Lauren Gilger the initiative won’t gut department’s like Elon Musk’s DOGE did at the federal government. Instead, Edwards Holmes says the initiative will look for redundant work, automate certain process and use tech tools to find fraud and abuse, skills she picked up when she worked at the U.S. Treasury Department.
In other, other news
The state House Education Committee signed off on a bill that would allow parents to sue if their child gets bullied at school (Kathy Ritchie / KJZZ) … The Cochise County supervisors are drafting a “polite but firm letter” about state officials auctioning 1,000 acres for a solar farm (Matt Hickman / Herald Review) … Fondomonte executives say new groundwater regulations make the “public nuisance” lawsuit from Attorney General Kris Mayes a moot point (Camryn Sanchez / KJZZ) … The nationwide “No Kings” protests are coming to the Valley on Saturday, and Trump critics have a lot more to complain about since the last protests (Morgan Fischer / New Times) … ASU President Michael Crow wants every student to have an AI agent, and pay a new fee to cover the cost (Alan Deutschendorf / State Press).
While everybody holds their breath wondering whether the ICE agents at Sky Harbor will start acting like the ICE agents in Minneapolis, we’re starting to see a new genre of reporting: “Here’s what ICE agents are doing at the airport.”
So far, our award for “Best Attitude About the Whole Thing” goes to Morgan Fischer at the Phoenix New Times for her tongue-in-cheek account of agents wandering aimlessly around Sky Harbor.
“Another stood near body scanners at a different checkpoint in the same terminal, but it was unclear what he was doing. Around 11:30 a.m. at Terminal 3, more than 30 ICE agents exited the security checkpoint, took the escalator down to the first-floor entrance near the Delta ticketing desk and stood outside by the curb. Eventually, they came back inside to stand around some more.”
1 Candidates can qualify for the November ballot by running successful write-in campaigns during the primary. So there may be a few new challengers come November.
2 Marshall also recently applied to be appointed as the Navajo County recorder — a position he’s constitutionally barred from accepting because he’s currently a state lawmaker.
3 “Base” is the keyword there — some lawmakers make nearly six figures for their part-time seasonal lawmaking gig when you add in per diem payments and mileage reimbursement.
4 Griffin has served a total of 20 years at the Capitol, including her first stint from 1997-2001.