The Daily Agenda: Imagine the possibilities
Do something better with your money ... That's a pricey steak ... And an alley-oop for your Twitter dunk.
The U.S Senate race will likely be the most expensive political contest Arizona has ever seen.
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly has a seemingly unending pot of money, gathered from incredible fundraising since he took office. His latest campaign finance reports show he has more than $25 million on hand out of more than $50 million raised.
He’s an incumbent running soon after winning the 2020 election. He doesn’t have to spend big on a bruising primary, unlike his competitors. He’s on the airwaves now with an ad about Congress and stock trading, a fairly universal message.
On the right, though, “bruising” seems like an understatement. GOP contenders Blake Masters and Jim Lamon, in particular, are all over your local TV stations bashing each other. Lamon would be China’s choice for Senate, one ad screams. Masters is fake and likes open borders, another says.
But that’s just the nature of primaries. Incumbents tend to win out if their general election opponents spend too much in the primary without reserving enough for a general. The difference here is, both Masters and Lamon can tap into untold resources in the general, too.
There are no normal parameters that curtail spending: Kelly’s fundraising shows no signs of stopping. Masters can presumably get unlimited backing from his former boss, billionaire Peter Thiel. Lamon is himself wealthy and has self-funded most of his campaign and will likely do the same if he makes it to the general.
And that’s not including the outside groups on both sides that will pour their resources into the campaign. Outside Dem groups will spend big to try to keep his seat. Outside GOP groups will try to take it back in a year that’s expected to favor Republicans. Some already have ads up, like an SMP ad touting Kelly and a National Republican Senatorial Committee ad that talks about how Kelly and Biden are in lock-step.
If someone like Mark Brnovich, Justin Olson or Mick McGuire were the favorite to win the GOP primary, we’d say Kelly’s advantage was nearly insurmountable.
But because the GOP nominee is likely to be Masters or Lamon, the only predication we can safely make is that a lot of consultants will get hefty paychecks this year, and you might want to avoid local TV until November.
It didn’t used to be this way. As Arizona moves into more solid swing state territory, money comes right along with it. We’re a political epicenter with heavy national focus now, just like we always thought this little state deserved. But it doesn’t come cheap.
One hugely expensive race like this will ultimately suck the financial wind out of down-ballot candidates, who will struggle to compete for airtime, attention and staff. It pulls focus and resources from races for offices that more directly impact your daily life. All this money supports just one seat in a body of 100, albeit a likely critical vote for both sides.
Having, or having access to, huge sums of money is not an indicator that a person will be a good political leader.
As eight-figure races become the norm in Arizona, we wonder if it will ever again be possible to run for office without a massive fundraising list, personal wealth or a rich benefactor.
You know who doesn’t have eight-figure benefactors? Local news reporters, like the two who run this daily newsletter. Throw a few bucks our way!
Snitches get stitches: After two years of failing to prove that Democrats stole the 2020 election, the Arizona Republican Party is trying to buy proof that Republicans are stealing the primary election from other Republicans. The party yesterday announced it is offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of “vote-buyers” in the August primary. Who is the party not-so-subtly implying is out there buying votes? Well, who has Kari Lake been accusing of trying to buy this primary election away from her? Fellow Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, of course.
All eyes on a 1970s court case in Tucson: In response to Attorney General Mark Brnovich’s request to a Pima County court to lift an injunction and allow a state law banning abortions to be enforced, Planned Parenthood Arizona says the court should instead consider the myriad laws regulating abortion put in place since the outright ban. The court should apply the pre-statehood ban to non-doctors, but require doctors to follow the set of laws regulating abortion since this, the Arizona Mirror’s Jim Small reports. Meanwhile, Arizona Democrats hope to make abortion a key issue this November because they can’t do anything legislatively without more Democrats in office, the Republic’s Ray Stern reports.
Did she at least get a Trump Steak?: Lake has spent at least $108,000 of donors’ campaign cash at Trump properties, Forbes’ Zach Everson reports, making her among the biggest spenders at Trump properties to seek office. Making candidates come visit him in Florida or New Jersey and pay for their stays is a good cash stream for the former president, Everson notes, as it has already netted him at least $1.4 million.
That’s just TV newsing: Karrin Taylor Robson’s camp is hitting Lake over a meme she posted ahead of Trump’s 2017 inauguration that reads “Not My President” and lists ways to protest his inauguration. But Lake didn’t endorse protesting the inauguration. Instead, like many TV news personalities, she posted what amounts to a clickbait poll on her Facebook page: “Will you be protesting the inauguration?” she asked. Still, it wasn’t a good look; Lake removed the post after Fox 10, her alma mater, asked about it.
And it’s free!: Since all your least favorite election deniers are freaking out online about mailed ballots, keep in mind that you can simply check the box on the ballot envelope indicating the voter in question doesn’t live at your address and drop that puppy right back into the mailbox.
Bipartisanship isn’t dead: A longstanding Democratic PAC is putting serious cash behind reelecting Republican Rep. David Cook after Cook sided with Democrats on killing an anti-union bill, AZ Free News reported last week. Revitalize Arizona, which is fueled by union money and run by longtime Democratic consultant Israel Torres, has spent well over $100,000 backing Cook.
Better than nothing: While cities put up more cooling centers and hydration stations, a new study shows they may not be as effective at preventing heat deaths as officials hope, the Republic’s Joan Meiners reports. Phoenix’s heat officer says the study doesn’t align with what he’s seeing, but it can be hard to get the word out to people who need access to air conditioning during the hot months. People living on the streets are most at risk of heat-related deaths — and, heat aside, people who are homeless are dying by the hundreds this year, Axios’ Jessica Boehm reports.
As if voters vote on issues: The attorney general races in several battleground states caught the attention of Vox yesterday, which noted that state AGs will likely determine the fate of abortion rights in their states. In Arizona, polling shows that voters are generally supportive of some level of abortion access, but the Republican AG candidates are not, the piece noted.
She has suppressed the most votes: Republican secretary of state candidate Michelle Ugenti-Rita shot back at Trump and his rerun endorsement of Mark Finchem yesterday, which picked on Ugenti-Rita specifically, implying she might be Finchem’s closest challenger. Ugenti-Rita accused Finchem of hiding behind Trump’s endorsement and said he “can’t speak for himself.” Then she detailed her track record of being called a “vote suppressor” and “racist” by the left as part of her bona fides, which also includes writing most “election integrity” laws that have actually been signed into law in recent years. She contrasted that with Finchem’s record of introducing a bill to make Arizona adopt the National Popular Vote, and promising to decertify the 2020 presidential election (which isn’t possible), then failing to introduce a bill to do that.
“It would be amusing if it wasn’t so pathetic,” she wrote.
Never underestimate moms: After the City of Peoria dismissed a notice of claim because of a technicality, the mother of a child who was killed by a truck while walking home from school won at the Arizona Supreme Court, allowing her case against the city to proceed, the Republic’s Endia Fontanez reports. The woman had written in her notice of claim that the city had 30 days to settle the claim instead of 60.
What say you, Brno?: Tyler Montague, head of the Arizona Public Integrity Alliance, filed a complaint with the Secretary of State’s Office yesterday based on Richard Ruelas’ piece in the Republic Tuesday showing that funders of a PAC spending $2 million to boost Lake had never heard of the PACs and deny contributing to them. Essentially, Montague said either the companies are lying or the PACs are — and either way, somebody’s breaking some laws. He urged Secretary of State Katie Hobbs to request an investigation from Attorney General Mark Brnovich. As we previously noted, Brnovich is using George Khalaf, one of the central figures in the case, as his campaign manager in his bid for the U.S. Senate.
Yeah, we thought so: The Tolleson Police Department confirmed to us that it has, indeed, submitted charges to the city attorney against Emilio Avila, a Tolleson High School District governing board candidate and campaign manager to Democratic Arizona House candidate Leezah Sun over the sign tampering incident we detailed on Monday.
Because of supply chain issues, there’s no district today.
We rarely see an own this perfect.
This time, we have to hand it to Turning Point’s Tyler Bowyer, which is almost certainly the last time we’ll write that sentence.
Boyer is a hero. Despite swimming upstream in today's Nationalist GOP, he kept some of the most ill-conceived legislation from escaping the Senate. He doesn't let hate or conspiracy theories drive his actions. He's smart, too. Reads the National Review instead of Breitbart. We will miss him in the next session.