Political nerds love campaign finance reports.

It’s like polling, but for financials.

And just like polling, campaign finance numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

We’re a long(ish) way from November 2026, so take these numbers for what they are: a very early glimpse into which candidates are putting in the work and gaining real traction.

While money isn’t everything, it sure does help. Without the cash to reach voters, even the sharpest campaigns fall flat.

If candidates are showing abysmal numbers now, there’s a good chance their campaigns wash out before they even file signatures to officially qualify for the ballot.

So today, let’s look at the numbers – who’s got the juice, who’s running on empty and who’s just getting started, based on the latest round of campaign finance reports, covering July 1 - September 30.

We’ve whittled this list down to the congressional races and candidates that will actually be competitive.

A final note before we jump in – we would have loved to give you a rundown of numbers for the statewide offices, like governor, attorney general and secretary of state. But as longtime readers will remember from our many rants on the topic, the state campaign finance system is a nearly useless piece of software.

Yesterday, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes announced that there was a glitch in the system that means his office hasn’t posted many statewide candidates’ reports, and the office couldn’t even provide paper copies of the reports.

So we’ll circle back to that when they’re ready.

Ok, on to the (congressional) races!

Longtime Republican Congressman David Schweikert’s recent decision to drop out of his reelection race in Congressional District 1 and seek the governorship instead shook up the race in CD1, and the dust hasn’t quite settled yet.

Since Schweikert’s announcement, a half-dozen Republicans have filed statements of interest to try to be his successor in this politically competitive district spanning north Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek.

But none have shown any significant fundraising yet, and politicos expect that several other higher-profile candidates are still considering joining the race. Among the rumored candidates are former racecar driver Danica Patrick, former ASU football coach Todd Graham, Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring, Maricopa County Supervisor Tom Galvin, political consultant Sean Noble, Kari Lake and a bunch of others. It remains to be seen which of these names are just rumors and which will actually join the race.

While Republicans scramble to fill Schweikert’s void, Democrats are piling up for the rare chance at a competitive district without an incumbent.

Topping the Democratic fundraiser list is political newcomer Jonathan Treble, a businessman who’s running on a platform that includes saving the Affordable Care Act after undergoing brain surgery last year.

Treble has racked up nearly $1.4 million in his campaign coffers. He’s clearly taking this seriously.

That’s far more than the combined cash on hand of the next two candidates — Marlene Galán Woods, a former TV journalist who ran in last year’s Democratic primary for the district, and Amish Shah, a doctor and former lawmaker who lost to Schweikert in 2024.

The 2026 election for CD2 is set to look a lot like 2024: Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane vs. Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation.

But first, Nez will have to beat back Democratic challenger Eric Descheenie, who announced his run in August, but he has raised barely any money yet.

CD2 covers a huge portion of northeastern Arizona, and it encompasses 14 Native American tribes. But redistricting commissioners weren’t required to protect minority voting blocs in 2021, so the most recent congressional maps give the area’s white voters more power in elections. While it’s technically considered a competitive district, Republicans have a strong advantage.

Still, Crane didn’t win the seat as overwhelmingly as expected in 2024 — 54% of the vote to Nez’s 45%, and Nez is trying again.

Crane reports raising more than $1.5 million last quarter, which includes about $90,000 in transfers from other campaign committees and $20,500 in PAC money.

Nez raised about half as much last quarter: $780,000. Of that, $44,500 came from PACs and $4,000 from other committees.

Crane and Nez are sitting on war chests of $1.6 million and $530,000 cash on hand, respectively. Descheenie, who is challenging Nez in the Democratic primary, only reports raising $2,107 to date.

That’s not enough to bother putting on our charts, let alone to win a congressional primary.

Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs is abandoning his deep-red district in the East Valley to run for governor. A long list of Republicans has lined up to replace him.

Former Cardinals kicker Jay Feely and former state lawmaker Travis Grantham have the most grassroots support, with about $630,000 and $265,000 in individual contributions, respectively.

While Feely gave himself $330,000, he also pulled in big checks from sports executives: $14,000 from Diamondbacks owner and GOP megadonor Ken Kendrick and his wife, Randy Kendrick, $10,000 from the Bidwill family of Arizona Cardinals executives and $5,000 from Baltimore Ravens Coach John Harbaugh and his wife, Ingrid Harbaugh.

Grantham gave his own campaign a $250,000 loan. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association contributed $5,000, while former Arizona Republican Party Chair and state Treasurer Jeff DeWit donated $3,500.

Political newcomer Daniel Keenan, who owns a residential construction company, reported raising the most of all the CD5 candidates at more than $1 million total. But most of that is his own money.

Alex Stovall is the other GOP primary contender, but he’s trailing far behind the pack with just $56,000 raised.

One Democrat has actually raised more than Stovall, but given the strong Republican bent of the district, they don’t stand a realistic chance of winning in November.

A whole pack of Democrats lined up for the chance to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who is considered one of the most beatable members of Congress in his CD6, which spans from Arizona’s southeast corner to the Tucson area.

But most of them have already dropped out of the race, and only one Democratic candidate’s fundraising even comes close to matching Ciscomani’s war chest.

Former Marine JoAnna Mendoza actually outraised Ciscomani in this fundraising quarter, pulling in roughly $696,000 to his $613,000.

Outraising a vulnerable incumbent is a heck of a feat that proves Mendoza is a serious candidate and the easy frontrunner in the Democratic primary — or what’s left of it. Four Democrats who originally announced their plans to run have already backed out, ceding the nomination to Mendoza. A final Democrat, Samantha Severson, is still technically in the race, but hasn’t raised any money yet.

Still, Mendoza has a lot of catching up to do if she wants to stay competitive with Ciscomani.

The Republican incumbent has about $2.4 million cash on hand, while Mendoza has a little less than $1 million.