Well, that was quite an election! We’re still trying to wrap our heads around these results, to be honest. Rejecting voter ID, but voting for two ballot measure restrictions? Rejecting Lake and Finchem, but not Horne and maybe not Hamadeh? Arizona is truly purple, and our election results display the fascinating divisions that we need to get used to.
We’ll of course be watching what happens next, as a Democratic governor and Republican-controlled Legislature try to work together. And we still have recounts and lawsuits to keep track of, too.
We want to hear from you: Why and how do you think Democrats pulled off these wins? If you helped reach out to voters for either party or on any issue, what’d you hear from them? Which messages do you think resonated?
We plan to dissect Democrats’ big gains next week a bit, and your insights will help us understand what may have worked.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
I textbank for candidates all over the country and Arizonans are a difficult group; the conspiracy theories and GOP bullsh*t runs deep, even when texting young voters out here. I'm a native Arizonan so I am not surprised .... but I am deeply disheartened. We worked our butts off to get easy to read voter guides out there, and I think it made a difference, so we need to keep at it.
A great improvement in the guides was putting the judges in front of the book and I think that increased participation as a result. Voters are now paying more attention to the judiciary.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
I worked for State Senate candidates and the abortion issue was a key issue for young people. I spoke to independents on the phone and honesty, ability to work with others, wanting to get stuff done for the community instead of partisan bickering we’re their concerns along with: concern about rents, housing - real problems. People are sick of partisanship.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
From my perspective as an over 80 voter here goes. As a republican, I am in the conservative column, but not to the far right. But there are some issues that are non negotiable I.e. a candidate must be pro life. But if that pro-life candidate is also untrustworthy, broken the law and got caught, then I look to other candidates. By the way your newsletter is very helpful in that regard, especially reminding the public of past issues. You are also helpful in summarizing their past legislative performance. The advent of social media has made candidate selection more difficult since many of them can’t string a coherent sentence together, so I don’t go there for my “news” or their views. The world is complex and all problems have many moving parts. As regards the propositions, I read each of them looking for the hidden agenda, what’s struck out, what has been added, thinking about the consequences, will it impact my life, that of my kids, is the measure just another power grab, then ask God for wisdom and decide on my yes or no. Not an elegant or infallible system but it works for me. Sometimes I win sometimes I lose. That’s life and you just move on. The fact that races were close is a good thing. A landslide could be an indication of a dictatorship.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
I have observed that Republicans still win in AZ if they propose a reasonable candidate. Or stated in the reverse - a Dem can win when the opposing Rep is terrible. Adrian Fontes has won elections when his opposition was incompetent (first time) or scary (second time), for example. My theory is put to the test with the Kris Mayes case -- she should be winning handily. Re Kathy Hoffman, I think the national focus on wokeness came at a bad time for her, and Horne, whom I don't like on many levels, isn't a terrible candidate -- he's an experienced politician with some ed experience.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
Pretty irritating that Maricopa County's Election Day fiascos will tarnish Katie Hobb's win. The GOP nut jobs don't need an excuse, of course, to be nutty, but why hand them a reason to deny the legitimacy of her victory? I live in Tucson, so I can't vote in Maricopa, but on this one point I agree with the GOP nut jobs: Maricopa needs a new Board of Supervisors.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
The reason for the Democrats success was the Arizona Republican Party. I was a life long Republican but left the party and became a registered independent in 2021 because of all the stolen election nonsense. I am still a Republican at heart so I voted Republican for the national ticket and Democratic for the state.
Nov 18, 2022·edited Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
The Republicans lost the election more than Democrats won. I don’t know how you could look at the majority of the federal/statewide Republican slate and not wonder if they were psychopathic authoritarians. Just truly awful candidates. The props are always harder to slice and dice, and partisanship typically plays less of a role — I am truly surprised that we voted down 309 (which on the ballot read as a simple solution when in reality it opens a can of worms) but not surprised that we rejected 310, for example, during a poor economic environment where a new tax, however tiny, sounds terrible.
The AZ results, to me, are in line with nearly every other swing state (NV, WI, MI, PA, NH, etc): a rejection of Trumpism, know nothingism, pandering to the dumbest in society, and extremist big government social policy.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
I agree with posts that assert ‘The Republicans lost the election more than Democrats won.’ It is a huge mistake for Democrats to believe they will remain competitive without stronger candidates.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
I’m very disturbed that HORNE won; our memories are so short, voting in the person who took away the successful Mexican Studies program in schools 10 years ago! And who views any kind of cultural teaching of honest history as “racism.” 😥
Nov 18, 2022·edited Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
This was nor an overwhelming victory for democrats. They barely survived. I live in Cochise County, where reppublicans won over democrats by at least a 15% margin. Two of the three supervisors voted again and again to hand count 100% of the ballots. This, against county legal opinion, insurer's opinion and four court decisions. Talking with some of the diehard people from those districts-not too many-and reading about other parts of the state, it is clear that those challenging the election systems and legal system at every turn want anarchy. Historically when anarchic conditions prevail, authoritarianism moves into the vacuum. I don't say this lightly. Facts, science, no longer matter, there is no longer a common reference any longer. So constant berating of two pillars of democracy is the tactic. The defense is to challenge those views at every instance; rapidly, completely, and honestly. Despite Hobbs ekeing out a win, she didn't do that, she/her campaign made a major mistake in not debating the lies of Lake.
Nov 18, 2022·edited Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
Don't overlook the effectiveness of GOTV groups in bringing out young voters. I made calls/texts every Sunday for over a year with Mark Kelly's Mission for Arizona and talked to lots of young voters in their 20's. Abortion access and rent/housing were the big issues. I live in a 55+ community in East Mesa and there are quite a few Dems and Indie's here who are sort of shocked and pleased at most of the election results. Kudos to Melinda Merkel Iyer and Civic Engagement Beyond Voting for giving us tools to help with judges and propositions. Used them and shared them widely. SOS helped with school boards. It wasnt only bad GOP candidates, it was a lot of work by folks all over the state to educate voters.
Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang, Hank Stephenson
It was all about extremism, on the right. Had Kari Lake run a campaign that focused on issues, rather than paranoia, and false accusations, she likely would have pulled off a win.
Personally, I think it is disgraceful that Tom Horne won, but name recognition went his way. There were no reminders of his past problems. Hoffman’s ads were far and few, and she clearly stayed away from any controversy, in regards to Horne.
What candidates focused on issues? This is what voters want. Name our problems, and give us your vision on how we can fix them.
Hoffman ran as a Clean Elections Candidate, which meant she didn't have access to fundraising that would have allowed her to get ads out more effectively or tell the story of why she was the better candidate in a meaningful way. The more important issue is that other organizations didn't run ads or create that narrative., For a race like that she needed the IE more than anyone else on the statewide ticket and she didn't get it. It was incredibly frustrating to see!
Nov 18, 2022·edited Nov 18, 2022Liked by Rachel Leingang
I agree, and I think this probably makes the case that running with Clean Elections for statewide office is not really viable anymore (with the exception of Corp. Comm.). It also shows how many fewer people know about the SPI as an office's role and functions, that the undervote compared to the gubernatorial race was about 80,000.
Looking at the turnout numbers, it looks like Democratic candidates did much better among unaffiliated voters.
My take is that GOP candidates spent too much time trying to be the most conservative candidate and ignored voters who didn’t care much about the pet causes of the political right. Stuff like “stop woke” or the 2020 election doesn’t matter a lot to unaffiliated voters who aren’t conservatives, and the Republican candidates forgot that.
My other take is the Dems we’re better at talking about Arizona while unsuccessful GOP candidates went national. Masters, Lake, and Finchem’s campaign would have been pretty similar in PA, GA, or anywhere else where there’s support for the false election fraud. Honestly, I don’t understand why Masters, in particular, ran here at all.
Finally, I think media outlets were more clear in calling out lies. There’s a shift in reporting that is less tolerant of consistent and obvious lying about things like the 2020 election.
I’m most disappointed in Julie Gunnigle’s loss. As a sour grapes thing, at least Mitchell is stuck with the fallout of the DOJ investigation into Phoenix law enforcement and all the things done under Adel.
Being true blue Democrat our home received a Vote Blue cheat sheet. Explained everything that was important to know . And, it listed the judges to vote against which apparently worked. I think sensible Republicans appreciated Liz Chaney’s advice to vote against deniers. I also think the strategy to let the most extreme deniers win their primaries helped make it plain where votes needed to go.
Wow, lots to unpack. Lake should have won going away but her media was chaotic, negative. Often racist and that soft weird lighting was unsettling. Kelly was strong and to the point. An every Arizonan kind of guy. Plus Masters was an amateur. Finchem was scary and Fontes looked sane and reliable. Jevin Hodge almost pulled an upset in District LD1, and OHalleran, a lifeless candidate lost to Crane losing a House seat. Our legislature looks the same except for the more extremists element of the Republican caucus. Hoffman, while a recount is next, was a surprise loss. Horne running an outdated CRT campaign didn’t hurt Hoffman as much as the Covid shutdown, masks and all that went with that time. No other incumbent had to deal with that horrible time period of attempting to save lives without a vaccine. Gerrymandering also played a role in Democratic losses. Who the hell are Citizens for Sanity? They ran the most racist, inhumane ads I’ve ever seen. Shame on them. What we did not talk about was water and planned growth. Housing, homelessness, healthcare and fixing DES.
Save Our Schools Arizona focused on School Board candidates, and found that voters were MUCH more willing--eager--to learn more. Focusing on issues & local offices helps open honest conversations with persuadable voters, when "politics" just seems like people yelling past each other. Truly, politics means the decisions that affect daily lives, like local schools, community resources, policing practices, public safety, fairness rather than ideology in the courts, access to affordable health care, affordable housing & homelessness, and building economic success for all Arizonans. Voters leave ballot areas blank when they don't know how that office relates to them personally--making the information relevant will be important to inspiring them to vote on judges, local representatives, ballot measures, etc. The fact that 80,000 people left the field blank for Superintendent of Public Instruction is shocking, and contributed more to Hoffman's loss than bogus CRT messaging. So much more needs to be done bringing voters into engagement with their government (the work of my organization, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting), but the election gives us some roadmaps.
I was a volunteer at the Pima Co Dem Party office during lead up to primaries. We naturally wanted nominating petitions for Katy Hobbs. One would think her campaign would be happy to provide these to us. We answered phone calls from folks who wanted to pass and sign them. The County chair, our ops director, even l, we all contacted the voicemail at Hobb’s office. Emails also went unanswered. At about this time, Arizona Agenda printed your story about the meltdown in staff when a more nationally minded person became Hobbs’ campaign manager.
Once the primaries were over, we were clamoring for signs. For sale only on Hobbs’ website. It was a WTF moment. Close to the election, PCDP finally opted to print signs for top 4 election candidates and a plea to save democracy. Perforce we had to sell those signs and they were gone in a week. The debate refusal raised the ire of many Pima County Dems who called the office furious with us for not having made Hobbs debate. As if! We were not all that clear on that decision as well. There were many complaints about the debate decision.
Kelly, who also opted to sell his signs, finally delivered 7 boxes of signs to PCDP office a couple weeks before the election. We still have hundreds. Makes one wonder what a better campaign with coordination between the candidates and more support from DNC might have done for Dem loses and the tightness of the races.
Hoffman is a casualty of COVID policies in the schools over the last couple of years. Certainly voters don't love Horne.
Lake let herself get in an echo chamber in which she imagines all voters as the conspiracy-loving cheering crowds at her rallies, and she told moderates and McCain fans to literally leave...and they did. Robson would have won 53-47.
Masters lost because he offered nothing, and Kelly hasn't offended the voters. Kelly had a massive funding pile, and Masters had little. Masters was erratic in his messaging. He faced headwinds from the center-right swing voters offended by election fraud claims. That group is relatively small, but decisive in close races. Lake got the same backlash.
Hamadeh's close finish with Mayes is a reflection of voters' mistrust of Democrats on crime, in spite of Hamadeh's inexperience, erratic messaging, and embrace of election conspiracies. "Defund the Police" and BLM riots are still haunting Democratic candidates in law enforcement elections. Again, not a huge group of swing voters, but decisive in these races.
Here's what I think. Not based on discussions with others, but just my opinion.
When humans do not think deeply (and we rarely do), we fall back to the biases of our world view. And even when we think we are being rational, the way we each see things is fundamental .
Despite all of the many changes in Arizona, both demographic and political, the state is somewhat conservative. One of the "core view fall-back" issues is a general "law and order" view; another is a bias that Republicans are better at handling money (not supported by evidence, IMHO, but it is a real bias). On the other hand, the MAGA election-denier candidates evoked reactions from many somewhere between fatigue and "yuck." So, those candidates often lost. I see what looks to be more or less a tie in the AG race as being due to the law-and-order aspect being a rough match for the MAGA nature of the Republican.
Of course, money is always an issue. Once a candidate has enough, it is not obvious that spending more helps at all. But having enough is necessary, and some of the Clean Elections candidates were so outmatched by their opponents that it was too much – Sup. of Pub. Ed., for instance.
Finally, when people don’t know what a race is about, they might either revert to their party identity, or else skip voting on that one. In the case of the Corporation Commission, for instance, there were a huge number of “undervotes” – people who cast a ballot but skipped that race. And there are more Republicans than Democrats in the state.
Rereading my own comment, I wanted to add that while the AZ population trends conservative on some issues, on many others it does not. But party identity strongly affects voting, at least when voters are not bothered by extreme and sometimes wacky candidates.
I spent about 100 hours on the voter assistance hotline. Democrats were highly motivated to vote early and get their ballots in. New voters sought assistance but older voters were motivated too. I talked to several folks in their 90’s who wanted to be sure their votes were counted.
As for the mixed results, perhaps folks weren’t motivated enough to vote the whole ballot. I can’t explain Horne—he’s a fraud and a criminal. He was banned by the SEC. He cheated on his wife and hired his mistress. He committed a hit and run. Genuinely horrible person.
According to Dillon Rosenblatt, about 80,000 people did NOT vote in the Supt of Public Instruction race. Now I wonder how many other races were affected by not voting up and down the ballot.
Actually the Governor's race isn't finished. The Pinal County 2022 Unofficial General
Election results were just released yesterday at 3:35p. The Pinal County balloting had Kari Lake winning by 23,764 votes. Another 1% of the voting is still outstanding. The Governor race tally continues to fluctuate after it was called with Hobbs supposedly winning by 1/2%.
After the 2020 Arizona elections debacle Hobbs, on her personal whim, changed the Arizona automatic recount law from 1% to 1/2%. The present Governor's race that Hobbs allows to be seen stands at less than 1/2%. All election tabulations are now in Katie Hobbs Secretary of State office. The
final canvass certifies the election results and includes vote totals from early, regular and provisional ballots, per the Arizona the secretary of state's website. This process is initiated on December 5. Then final results may not be finalized until Dec 30. That is if Katie Hobbs can be trusted to release true counts that are only evidenced in her Secretary of State office.
Hi, the legislature (which Hobbs is not in) changed the recount law from 0.1% (not 1%) to 0.5% (which is higher than it was before). Not a personal whim by the SOS — a legal change by lawmakers. It’s possible the gov’s race makes it into the 0.5% recount territory once counting is complete, but swinging 13k votes during a recount is near impossible. I’m sure there will be lawsuits from Lake, it’s possible there’s a recount, but that race is called because the math of the remaining ballots was clear.
I would have loved to see an IE plaster the airways with a "Fight for Democracy" featuring each of the statewide candidates. Almost a mini series, "In this addition of Save Democracy we have former Republican Kris Mayes continuing for truth and justice against child rant Abe H. " then just tell the truth. But tie it all together to show that voting all D is your patriotic duty.
I can't believe that Horne won, only thing he has is an "R" before his name. He was a disgrace at both Ed and AG. I think some voters just didn't vote down the ticket and Kathy lost the momentum. I'm glad to see that Hobbs will get to recommend some new judges and that Montgomery had a bit of a scare. Ducey packing the court unnecessarily has had its success in obstruction of the majority.
As a non-Arizonan who watched this election intensely, I was thrilled to see the state mostly reject the intense craziness, although I would have liked to see a democratic AZCC and I am hoping Mays pulls it out for AG too.
I think there was significant investment from Democrats and other Dem aligned groups this season to get the turnout and results needed. However, some things slipped through the cracks like the Lt Gov. I think that Republicans have more voters that consistently vote down ballot and Democrats are just starting to cultivate that voter knowledge, which is why Kathy Hoffman didn't win this time around.
I textbank for candidates all over the country and Arizonans are a difficult group; the conspiracy theories and GOP bullsh*t runs deep, even when texting young voters out here. I'm a native Arizonan so I am not surprised .... but I am deeply disheartened. We worked our butts off to get easy to read voter guides out there, and I think it made a difference, so we need to keep at it.
A great improvement in the guides was putting the judges in front of the book and I think that increased participation as a result. Voters are now paying more attention to the judiciary.
I worked for State Senate candidates and the abortion issue was a key issue for young people. I spoke to independents on the phone and honesty, ability to work with others, wanting to get stuff done for the community instead of partisan bickering we’re their concerns along with: concern about rents, housing - real problems. People are sick of partisanship.
From my perspective as an over 80 voter here goes. As a republican, I am in the conservative column, but not to the far right. But there are some issues that are non negotiable I.e. a candidate must be pro life. But if that pro-life candidate is also untrustworthy, broken the law and got caught, then I look to other candidates. By the way your newsletter is very helpful in that regard, especially reminding the public of past issues. You are also helpful in summarizing their past legislative performance. The advent of social media has made candidate selection more difficult since many of them can’t string a coherent sentence together, so I don’t go there for my “news” or their views. The world is complex and all problems have many moving parts. As regards the propositions, I read each of them looking for the hidden agenda, what’s struck out, what has been added, thinking about the consequences, will it impact my life, that of my kids, is the measure just another power grab, then ask God for wisdom and decide on my yes or no. Not an elegant or infallible system but it works for me. Sometimes I win sometimes I lose. That’s life and you just move on. The fact that races were close is a good thing. A landslide could be an indication of a dictatorship.
I remember a time when Republicans were pro-choice. Like Peggy Goldwater or Bush 1 getting Title X through to find family planning.
I have observed that Republicans still win in AZ if they propose a reasonable candidate. Or stated in the reverse - a Dem can win when the opposing Rep is terrible. Adrian Fontes has won elections when his opposition was incompetent (first time) or scary (second time), for example. My theory is put to the test with the Kris Mayes case -- she should be winning handily. Re Kathy Hoffman, I think the national focus on wokeness came at a bad time for her, and Horne, whom I don't like on many levels, isn't a terrible candidate -- he's an experienced politician with some ed experience.
Pretty irritating that Maricopa County's Election Day fiascos will tarnish Katie Hobb's win. The GOP nut jobs don't need an excuse, of course, to be nutty, but why hand them a reason to deny the legitimacy of her victory? I live in Tucson, so I can't vote in Maricopa, but on this one point I agree with the GOP nut jobs: Maricopa needs a new Board of Supervisors.
The reason for the Democrats success was the Arizona Republican Party. I was a life long Republican but left the party and became a registered independent in 2021 because of all the stolen election nonsense. I am still a Republican at heart so I voted Republican for the national ticket and Democratic for the state.
The Republicans lost the election more than Democrats won. I don’t know how you could look at the majority of the federal/statewide Republican slate and not wonder if they were psychopathic authoritarians. Just truly awful candidates. The props are always harder to slice and dice, and partisanship typically plays less of a role — I am truly surprised that we voted down 309 (which on the ballot read as a simple solution when in reality it opens a can of worms) but not surprised that we rejected 310, for example, during a poor economic environment where a new tax, however tiny, sounds terrible.
The AZ results, to me, are in line with nearly every other swing state (NV, WI, MI, PA, NH, etc): a rejection of Trumpism, know nothingism, pandering to the dumbest in society, and extremist big government social policy.
I agree with posts that assert ‘The Republicans lost the election more than Democrats won.’ It is a huge mistake for Democrats to believe they will remain competitive without stronger candidates.
This is a sad day for Arizona’s children but a good one for democracy
I’m very disturbed that HORNE won; our memories are so short, voting in the person who took away the successful Mexican Studies program in schools 10 years ago! And who views any kind of cultural teaching of honest history as “racism.” 😥
This was nor an overwhelming victory for democrats. They barely survived. I live in Cochise County, where reppublicans won over democrats by at least a 15% margin. Two of the three supervisors voted again and again to hand count 100% of the ballots. This, against county legal opinion, insurer's opinion and four court decisions. Talking with some of the diehard people from those districts-not too many-and reading about other parts of the state, it is clear that those challenging the election systems and legal system at every turn want anarchy. Historically when anarchic conditions prevail, authoritarianism moves into the vacuum. I don't say this lightly. Facts, science, no longer matter, there is no longer a common reference any longer. So constant berating of two pillars of democracy is the tactic. The defense is to challenge those views at every instance; rapidly, completely, and honestly. Despite Hobbs ekeing out a win, she didn't do that, she/her campaign made a major mistake in not debating the lies of Lake.
Agreed. People (Democrats) do not do a great job succinctly explaining where this is headed. You did.
Don't overlook the effectiveness of GOTV groups in bringing out young voters. I made calls/texts every Sunday for over a year with Mark Kelly's Mission for Arizona and talked to lots of young voters in their 20's. Abortion access and rent/housing were the big issues. I live in a 55+ community in East Mesa and there are quite a few Dems and Indie's here who are sort of shocked and pleased at most of the election results. Kudos to Melinda Merkel Iyer and Civic Engagement Beyond Voting for giving us tools to help with judges and propositions. Used them and shared them widely. SOS helped with school boards. It wasnt only bad GOP candidates, it was a lot of work by folks all over the state to educate voters.
It was all about extremism, on the right. Had Kari Lake run a campaign that focused on issues, rather than paranoia, and false accusations, she likely would have pulled off a win.
Personally, I think it is disgraceful that Tom Horne won, but name recognition went his way. There were no reminders of his past problems. Hoffman’s ads were far and few, and she clearly stayed away from any controversy, in regards to Horne.
What candidates focused on issues? This is what voters want. Name our problems, and give us your vision on how we can fix them.
Hoffman ran as a Clean Elections Candidate, which meant she didn't have access to fundraising that would have allowed her to get ads out more effectively or tell the story of why she was the better candidate in a meaningful way. The more important issue is that other organizations didn't run ads or create that narrative., For a race like that she needed the IE more than anyone else on the statewide ticket and she didn't get it. It was incredibly frustrating to see!
I agree, and I think this probably makes the case that running with Clean Elections for statewide office is not really viable anymore (with the exception of Corp. Comm.). It also shows how many fewer people know about the SPI as an office's role and functions, that the undervote compared to the gubernatorial race was about 80,000.
Looking at the turnout numbers, it looks like Democratic candidates did much better among unaffiliated voters.
My take is that GOP candidates spent too much time trying to be the most conservative candidate and ignored voters who didn’t care much about the pet causes of the political right. Stuff like “stop woke” or the 2020 election doesn’t matter a lot to unaffiliated voters who aren’t conservatives, and the Republican candidates forgot that.
My other take is the Dems we’re better at talking about Arizona while unsuccessful GOP candidates went national. Masters, Lake, and Finchem’s campaign would have been pretty similar in PA, GA, or anywhere else where there’s support for the false election fraud. Honestly, I don’t understand why Masters, in particular, ran here at all.
Finally, I think media outlets were more clear in calling out lies. There’s a shift in reporting that is less tolerant of consistent and obvious lying about things like the 2020 election.
I’m most disappointed in Julie Gunnigle’s loss. As a sour grapes thing, at least Mitchell is stuck with the fallout of the DOJ investigation into Phoenix law enforcement and all the things done under Adel.
Being true blue Democrat our home received a Vote Blue cheat sheet. Explained everything that was important to know . And, it listed the judges to vote against which apparently worked. I think sensible Republicans appreciated Liz Chaney’s advice to vote against deniers. I also think the strategy to let the most extreme deniers win their primaries helped make it plain where votes needed to go.
Wow, lots to unpack. Lake should have won going away but her media was chaotic, negative. Often racist and that soft weird lighting was unsettling. Kelly was strong and to the point. An every Arizonan kind of guy. Plus Masters was an amateur. Finchem was scary and Fontes looked sane and reliable. Jevin Hodge almost pulled an upset in District LD1, and OHalleran, a lifeless candidate lost to Crane losing a House seat. Our legislature looks the same except for the more extremists element of the Republican caucus. Hoffman, while a recount is next, was a surprise loss. Horne running an outdated CRT campaign didn’t hurt Hoffman as much as the Covid shutdown, masks and all that went with that time. No other incumbent had to deal with that horrible time period of attempting to save lives without a vaccine. Gerrymandering also played a role in Democratic losses. Who the hell are Citizens for Sanity? They ran the most racist, inhumane ads I’ve ever seen. Shame on them. What we did not talk about was water and planned growth. Housing, homelessness, healthcare and fixing DES.
Save Our Schools Arizona focused on School Board candidates, and found that voters were MUCH more willing--eager--to learn more. Focusing on issues & local offices helps open honest conversations with persuadable voters, when "politics" just seems like people yelling past each other. Truly, politics means the decisions that affect daily lives, like local schools, community resources, policing practices, public safety, fairness rather than ideology in the courts, access to affordable health care, affordable housing & homelessness, and building economic success for all Arizonans. Voters leave ballot areas blank when they don't know how that office relates to them personally--making the information relevant will be important to inspiring them to vote on judges, local representatives, ballot measures, etc. The fact that 80,000 people left the field blank for Superintendent of Public Instruction is shocking, and contributed more to Hoffman's loss than bogus CRT messaging. So much more needs to be done bringing voters into engagement with their government (the work of my organization, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting), but the election gives us some roadmaps.
I was a volunteer at the Pima Co Dem Party office during lead up to primaries. We naturally wanted nominating petitions for Katy Hobbs. One would think her campaign would be happy to provide these to us. We answered phone calls from folks who wanted to pass and sign them. The County chair, our ops director, even l, we all contacted the voicemail at Hobb’s office. Emails also went unanswered. At about this time, Arizona Agenda printed your story about the meltdown in staff when a more nationally minded person became Hobbs’ campaign manager.
Once the primaries were over, we were clamoring for signs. For sale only on Hobbs’ website. It was a WTF moment. Close to the election, PCDP finally opted to print signs for top 4 election candidates and a plea to save democracy. Perforce we had to sell those signs and they were gone in a week. The debate refusal raised the ire of many Pima County Dems who called the office furious with us for not having made Hobbs debate. As if! We were not all that clear on that decision as well. There were many complaints about the debate decision.
Kelly, who also opted to sell his signs, finally delivered 7 boxes of signs to PCDP office a couple weeks before the election. We still have hundreds. Makes one wonder what a better campaign with coordination between the candidates and more support from DNC might have done for Dem loses and the tightness of the races.
Hoffman is a casualty of COVID policies in the schools over the last couple of years. Certainly voters don't love Horne.
Lake let herself get in an echo chamber in which she imagines all voters as the conspiracy-loving cheering crowds at her rallies, and she told moderates and McCain fans to literally leave...and they did. Robson would have won 53-47.
Masters lost because he offered nothing, and Kelly hasn't offended the voters. Kelly had a massive funding pile, and Masters had little. Masters was erratic in his messaging. He faced headwinds from the center-right swing voters offended by election fraud claims. That group is relatively small, but decisive in close races. Lake got the same backlash.
Hamadeh's close finish with Mayes is a reflection of voters' mistrust of Democrats on crime, in spite of Hamadeh's inexperience, erratic messaging, and embrace of election conspiracies. "Defund the Police" and BLM riots are still haunting Democratic candidates in law enforcement elections. Again, not a huge group of swing voters, but decisive in these races.
Here's what I think. Not based on discussions with others, but just my opinion.
When humans do not think deeply (and we rarely do), we fall back to the biases of our world view. And even when we think we are being rational, the way we each see things is fundamental .
Despite all of the many changes in Arizona, both demographic and political, the state is somewhat conservative. One of the "core view fall-back" issues is a general "law and order" view; another is a bias that Republicans are better at handling money (not supported by evidence, IMHO, but it is a real bias). On the other hand, the MAGA election-denier candidates evoked reactions from many somewhere between fatigue and "yuck." So, those candidates often lost. I see what looks to be more or less a tie in the AG race as being due to the law-and-order aspect being a rough match for the MAGA nature of the Republican.
Of course, money is always an issue. Once a candidate has enough, it is not obvious that spending more helps at all. But having enough is necessary, and some of the Clean Elections candidates were so outmatched by their opponents that it was too much – Sup. of Pub. Ed., for instance.
Finally, when people don’t know what a race is about, they might either revert to their party identity, or else skip voting on that one. In the case of the Corporation Commission, for instance, there were a huge number of “undervotes” – people who cast a ballot but skipped that race. And there are more Republicans than Democrats in the state.
Rereading my own comment, I wanted to add that while the AZ population trends conservative on some issues, on many others it does not. But party identity strongly affects voting, at least when voters are not bothered by extreme and sometimes wacky candidates.
I spent about 100 hours on the voter assistance hotline. Democrats were highly motivated to vote early and get their ballots in. New voters sought assistance but older voters were motivated too. I talked to several folks in their 90’s who wanted to be sure their votes were counted.
As for the mixed results, perhaps folks weren’t motivated enough to vote the whole ballot. I can’t explain Horne—he’s a fraud and a criminal. He was banned by the SEC. He cheated on his wife and hired his mistress. He committed a hit and run. Genuinely horrible person.
According to Dillon Rosenblatt, about 80,000 people did NOT vote in the Supt of Public Instruction race. Now I wonder how many other races were affected by not voting up and down the ballot.
Actually the Governor's race isn't finished. The Pinal County 2022 Unofficial General
Election results were just released yesterday at 3:35p. The Pinal County balloting had Kari Lake winning by 23,764 votes. Another 1% of the voting is still outstanding. The Governor race tally continues to fluctuate after it was called with Hobbs supposedly winning by 1/2%.
After the 2020 Arizona elections debacle Hobbs, on her personal whim, changed the Arizona automatic recount law from 1% to 1/2%. The present Governor's race that Hobbs allows to be seen stands at less than 1/2%. All election tabulations are now in Katie Hobbs Secretary of State office. The
final canvass certifies the election results and includes vote totals from early, regular and provisional ballots, per the Arizona the secretary of state's website. This process is initiated on December 5. Then final results may not be finalized until Dec 30. That is if Katie Hobbs can be trusted to release true counts that are only evidenced in her Secretary of State office.
Hi, the legislature (which Hobbs is not in) changed the recount law from 0.1% (not 1%) to 0.5% (which is higher than it was before). Not a personal whim by the SOS — a legal change by lawmakers. It’s possible the gov’s race makes it into the 0.5% recount territory once counting is complete, but swinging 13k votes during a recount is near impossible. I’m sure there will be lawsuits from Lake, it’s possible there’s a recount, but that race is called because the math of the remaining ballots was clear.
Thank you.
I would have loved to see an IE plaster the airways with a "Fight for Democracy" featuring each of the statewide candidates. Almost a mini series, "In this addition of Save Democracy we have former Republican Kris Mayes continuing for truth and justice against child rant Abe H. " then just tell the truth. But tie it all together to show that voting all D is your patriotic duty.
I can't believe that Horne won, only thing he has is an "R" before his name. He was a disgrace at both Ed and AG. I think some voters just didn't vote down the ticket and Kathy lost the momentum. I'm glad to see that Hobbs will get to recommend some new judges and that Montgomery had a bit of a scare. Ducey packing the court unnecessarily has had its success in obstruction of the majority.
As a non-Arizonan who watched this election intensely, I was thrilled to see the state mostly reject the intense craziness, although I would have liked to see a democratic AZCC and I am hoping Mays pulls it out for AG too.
I think there was significant investment from Democrats and other Dem aligned groups this season to get the turnout and results needed. However, some things slipped through the cracks like the Lt Gov. I think that Republicans have more voters that consistently vote down ballot and Democrats are just starting to cultivate that voter knowledge, which is why Kathy Hoffman didn't win this time around.