Fight or flight?

Hobbs ducks, Mayes swings ... Food is in high demand ... And clowns are gross.

Morning, readers!

We can’t stop thinking about the governor’s reelection campaign launch.

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After watching Gov. Katie Hobbs’ reelection campaign launch earlier this month, you’d be excused for having flashbacks to 2018.

That was the year Republican Gov. Doug Ducey ran for a second term, and Hobbs’ launch video hits many of the same themes: digging the state out of a deficit, boosting business owners, cutting taxes, securing the border and touting high-tech jobs.

But perhaps the more interesting comparison isn’t Hobbs versus Ducey — but Hobbs versus fellow Democrat, Attorney General Kris Mayes.

The split-screen of how two of Arizona’s top Democrats have framed their reelection campaigns offers an interesting window into Democrats’ split strategies in a state where Donald Trump has won two out of three elections.

And it hits on a question that Democrats (really, all politicians) have been struggling with for a decade now: How to handle Trump.¹

Mayes, both in her office and in her campaign, has chosen to face Trump head-on.

She has used the power of her office to sign Arizona onto dozens of lawsuits against the Trump administration, and her campaign launch video urges supporters to help her “fight like hell” for our country.

Though Mayes doesn’t say his name, there’s no question who she’s fighting against.

Hobbs, on the other hand, has taken a non-confrontational posture toward the Trump administration. As governor, she has been slow to criticize the president, seemingly calculating that staying off the president’s radar is more important than speaking out. As a candidate, the only direct allusion she has made to Trump was to rip off his campaign slogan: She’s hosting “Arizona First” campaign rallies.

Hobbs’ campaign launch video makes no allusions to Trump, reproductive rights, democracy itself, or any of the other mainstay Democratic Party issues — it’s almost laser-focused on jobs, the economy and border security.

It’s not like Mayes wakes up every morning wanting to sue the president, her campaign consultant, DJ Quinlan, told us. But it’s Mayes’ job to sue when she thinks the Constitution is being violated, and Trump violates the Constitution a lot.

“You can’t ignore the elephant in the room,” Quinlan said. “The cause of a lot of people’s pain are actions taken by the Trump administration. And I think the attorney general’s perspective is, you know, to confront these things pretty directly.”

A lot of the differences in campaign tactics can actually be explained by the nature of the two Democrats’ jobs, Quinlan mused.

Confrontation with the federal government is inherently part of the attorney general’s job, and by standing up to the president, Mayes is doing exactly what the Federalist Founding Fathers would have wanted: ensuring a state-level check on an out-of-control federal executive.

But running the Governor’s Office always requires some amount of keeping the peace to ensure federal dollars continue to flow to the state.

Not to mention, the two Democrats have very different personalities that surely inform their decisions on how to approach Trump. Hobbs is a former social worker and natural consensus builder. Mayes is a former political journalist whose instinct is to speak truth to power.

Mayes is also a former Republican politician. And while she makes no secret of her legal war on Trump, she spends a lot of time in deep-red parts of rural Arizona, listening to and fighting for constituents who probably didn’t vote for her.²

Hobbs is following a more well-worn playbook by Arizona Democrats: Be bland, don’t sound like a Democrat and hope your opponent acts a little nuts.

It worked for Ruben Gallego last year, for Hobbs in 2022, for Mark Kelly in 2020 and for one Arizona Democrat back in 2018.

Here’s an illustration of the tactic in action.

By adopting “Arizona First” as a slogan, Hobbs is continuing a long tradition of Arizona Democrats co-opting Republican talking points to separate themselves from national Democrats and seem palatable to center-right independents.

Of course, the tactic only works with the right opponent. Since 2016, Arizona Democrats have lucked into a bevy of unelectable Republicans. Without them, Arizona wouldn’t even be a purple state. Or as Democratic consultant Sam Richard put it:

“We actually are Pepsi drinkers that have only had access to Coke products for the last 10 years.”

While it’s easy for Democrats to accuse Hobbs of selling out, abandoning the base or capitulating to conservatives, it actually takes a lot of discipline to just shut up and let your opponent lose, as one Hobbs ally noted.

And Hobbs has shown that she has the spine to stick to an unpopular, but winning, strategy.

In 2022, Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake. There’s no question Lake would have demolished Hobbs on a debate stage. In the face of overwhelming calls from donors, the media and the public to debate, Hobbs stuck to her guns.

It didn’t make her base happy, but she won.

That same strategy — minimize risk, avoid unnecessary fights and rely on Republicans to self-destruct — is one Arizona Democrats have been running for years.

So if you’re getting flashbacks to 2018, maybe it’s not Ducey you’re remembering, but Kyrsten Sinema.

The long line ahead: Arizona food banks are already seeing increased demand before nearly 900,000 Arizonans lose access to their SNAP benefits next month, KJZZ’s Katherine Davis-Young reports. On Tuesday morning, St. Mary’s Food Bank had a line of 100 cars waiting to receive a box of food. Michael Andrews waited in his car for more than an hour for his first visit to a food bank after using up all his October SNAP benefits. He wasn’t sure whether to believe that his assistance would really end this month.

“Is that true? Nobody’s going to get food stamps in November because of the government shutdown?” Andrews said. “If I don’t get it, I’m going to be in a serious bad way.”

In God they govern: Arizona’s local government leaders are blurring the line between church and state, and proudly preaching Christianity at public meetings, the Republic’s Taylor Seely reports. A Fountain Hills resident recently posted a video of an audience member poking her son, who has autism, because he was sitting during the prayer at a town council meeting.³ While the state’s Christian population is decreasing, evangelical pastors say Charlie Kirk’s death caused a religious “revival.”

We promise not to poke you at government meetings, but we do pray you’ll subscribe.

Make Propaganda Great Again: The Washington Post found that Trump administration videos pushing its immigration agenda are highly misleading, and some lift old Arizona footage to sell their message. One video uses a clip of someone crossing the border to show “illegal criminals who flooded our communities” under past administrations. It was filmed at an Arizona Border Patrol checkpoint in 2019, during Donald Trump’s first term. Another video shows close-up shots of narcotics confiscated near Nogales to justify putting immigration agents on the streets of Chicago.

Teaching philosophy: The Arizona Department of Education, led by Tom Horne, proposed revisions to state teaching standards to comply with Trump’s anti-DEI demands, Alexandra Hardle writes for the Republic. But the Arizona State Board of Education denied the department’s request to remove any language or phrases related to diversity, equity, and inclusion. The board agreed to revisit the proposal in December once there is more information on what will happen at the federal level. Horne said there could be federal funding repercussions and there is a “philosophical issue” at play.

“All people should be judged based on their character and ability, not their race or ethnicity. DEI language and programs promote the exact opposite, and they have no place in the classroom. The teaching standards, unfortunately, include DEI references, and they need to be removed,” Horne said.

Judge takes pee break: An Arizona Superior Court pro tem judge resigned after police body camera footage surfaced of her peeing and her husband getting arrested for disorderly conduct outside a bar on Prescott’s Whiskey Row, writes Justin Lum for Fox10. Judge Kristyne Schaaf-Olson told officers she was waiting for a ride-share driver with her husband, who is the parks and recreation manager for the Town of Chino Valley. Schaaf-Olson emphasized her title to the officers who arrived, but she still received a citation — which she struggled to sign.

In other, other news

Some of Arizona’s largest employers — like Amazon, Apple and Union Pacific — are bankrolling Trump’s new East Wing ballroom (Stephanie Murray / the Republic) … The mother of a man who a Phoenix police officer shot in the back as he was running away filed a federal wrongful death lawsuit against the officer and the city (TJ L’Heureux / Phoenix New Times) … And next month, 24 Arizonans are participating in the country’s first clinical trial of psilocybin mushrooms to treat PTSD (Kathy Ritchie / KJZZ).

Progressive campaign groups Honest Arizona and Mi Familia en Accion held a spooky rally outside Arizona’s U.S. Rep. David Schweikert’s Scottsdale office Monday to protest “spooky cuts” to health care and education.

Participants definitely understood the assignment.

There were “R.I.P. DEMOCRACY” tombstones, a skeleton waiting patiently under a “Still waiting for the big beautiful obituary” sign and even an inflatable T. rex roaring about tariffs.

But this costume, from Mi Familia’s Instagram, is our favorite:

Next up: A Halloween-day rally haunting Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s Tucson offices.

He’s recently been criticized for ghosting constituents, but organizers are trying to summon him anyway.

1. In a weird way, both Democrats are co-opting Trump’s successful messaging. Mayes’ launch taps into Trump’s promise to “fight like hell” to “take this country back.” Hobbs’ “Arizona First” slogan is a clear knock-off of Trump’s America First rallying cry. They say imitation is the most sincere form of flattery…

2. In fact, there’s a fun story about Mayes that may help illustrate her campaign strategy: When Mayes was a reporter, John McCain famously threw her off his campaign bus. But years later, when Mayes was running for reelection to the Arizona Corporation Commission, McCain endorsed her. Meaning, McCain may not have always liked her or agreed with her, but there was a mutual respect. Perhaps some of the rural Republicans who have attended her town halls on depleting water tables or skyrocketing energy costs will feel the same way, despite the onslaught of litigation she’s brought against the administration.

3. Another fun backstory: Hank was once kicked out of the state House for, among other things, not paying close enough attention during the daily prayer. In 2016, the House attorney tattled to the Capitol Times that Hank was typing while lawmakers prayed.