For the past four years, Democrats’ biggest wins at the Capitol have mostly come from Gov. Katie Hobbs’ veto stamp, not from passing their own agenda through the Republican-controlled Legislature.
But Democrats are getting tired of playing defense.
While Democrats have been saying they’ll take the legislative majority for years, Sen. Priya Sundareshan, co-chair of the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee that helps elect Democrats to the Legislature, swears this year looks different.
“I don’t think the average voter yet understands how close the Legislature is,” she said. “They hear about what crazy stuff the Republican majority put forward yet again, and they think Democrats have no chance of overtaking them. But that’s not the case. We are basically at that 50-50 mark.”
Democrats have lined up candidates across Arizona’s handful of competitive legislative districts in hopes of finally breaking Republicans’ hold on both chambers in the November election. Right now, Democrats hold 27 of 60 House seats and 13 of 30 Senate seats, meaning they need a net gain of four seats in the House and three in the Senate to take control.
Republicans picked up two House seats and one Senate seat in 2024, expanding what had been single-seat control of the Legislature into a more comfortable majority.
Legislative Democrats were swept up in the “red wave” that came with President Donald Trump’s reelection and by Republican efforts to boost GOP turnout, Sundareshan said.
This year, Republicans won’t have Trump on the ballot to juice national turnout. And historically, midterm voters tend to punish the party that controls the White House.
That, GOP consultant Constantin Querard acknowledged, could be a problem for legislative Republicans this year.
“Even if the polls are in your favor, you always run like you’re losing,” he said. “That’s the challenge — there are some people who love Trump or they hate Trump, but then if Trump’s not on the ballot, they don’t show up because Trump’s not on the ballot.”
Many voters will effectively choose their Capitol representation in the primary. Most legislative districts heavily favor one party, which means that party’s nominees can usually count on winning in November.
But there are about seven districts where the mix of registered Democrats, Republicans and independents gives both parties a somewhat real chance of victory.
That forces both parties to make a strategic choice in competitive House districts: run two candidates and try to win both seats, or run just one candidate — a single shot — and concentrate the party’s votes behind that person.
Because each district elects two House members, voters can choose up to two candidates. If a party runs only one, its voters are less likely to split their support between two names, giving that candidate a better shot at finishing in the top two.
This 2024 Democratic voter guide explains the thinking behind single-shot voting: When two House seats are up, parties sometimes tell voters to pick only their candidate instead of using a second vote that could help the other side.
Democrats are banking on a pendulum swing against Republicans this year, and they’re adopting a bolder strategy. In at least three competitive districts, they’re running full House slates after taking the more cautious single-shot approach in 2024.
Primary ballots are in the mail, and voters are about to start narrowing down the field in the fight for control of next year’s Legislature.
Here’s how Republicans plan to defend their majority, and how Democrats hope to finally take it.
Unless there’s a surprise upset from a write-in candidate, LD2’s voters are likely to keep the same two representatives they’ve had for the past two years: Democratic Rep. Stephanie Simacek and Republican Rep. Justin Wilmeth.
Neither party is eager to mess with the split district representation.
Democrats aren’t risking running a second candidate to replace Wilmeth, and after trying to sweep both House seats last election, Republicans appear to be playing it safer this time.
Wilmeth is the only Republican whose name will appear on the primary ballot, though one official write-in candidate could still claim the party’s second House nomination by clearing the state’s write-in vote threshold.
In the Senate, Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick is clinging to the seat she narrowly won in 2024 when she held off then-Rep. Judy Schwiebert, a Democrat.
This time around, Bolick has a primary challenger and will face whichever Democrat emerges from a two-way primary.
LD4’s two Republican House members — Reps. Pamela Carter and Matt Gress — each want another term.
They have one primary challenger: Paradise Valley Unified School District Governing Board member Sandra Christensen.
But the Democrats waiting for whichever two Republicans make it to November’s ballot are already set: Madison Elementary School Board member Karen Gresham and Tammy Caputi, who owns a commercial electrical supply company.
In 2024, GOP Sen. Carine Werner ousted incumbent Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh, who was the victim of a misleading opposition campaign from the NicoPAC, a Republican spending machine led by young MAGA firebrand Nico Delgado.
This year, the PAC received $10,000 from the GOP’s Arizona Senate Victory Fund.
Former Democratic lawmaker Aaron Lieberman will challenge Werner in November.
Democratic Rep. Lorena Austin will need a new seatmate after fellow Democratic Rep. Seth Blattman opted against another run. Democratic activist Jacob Martinez wants the job.
Republicans are playing it safe in the Democratic-leaning district by running real estate investor Bradley Bettencourt as a single-shot House candidate.
In the Senate, Democrat Kiana Sears has one Republican challenger, Bridget Fitzgibbons, who runs an alternative medicine clinic.
This is Sears’ first legislative campaign, and it could be close. She was appointed last year to replace former Sen. Eva Burch, who resigned after narrowly winning reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes. And appointed lawmakers often have a harder time holding onto their seats.
None of LD13’s current all-Republican legislative delegation will hold the same spots next year.
Rep. Jeff Weninger is departing and running to be mayor of Chandler, Rep. Julie Willoughby wants the district’s Senate seat, and longtime Sen. JD Mesnard is running for a justice of the peace seat in Chandler.
Republican voters in a contested GOP primary will decide who challenges them: Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke, GOP activist Debra Schinke and/or Janet Weninger, wife of the current representative who runs the family’s sandwich catering business.
But Democrats see the two-House seat opening as a chance to go all out.
Two Democrats — Racquel “Rockee” Armstrong, a professor at ASU’s teachers college, and Jacob Weinberg, an Army veteran and business executive — are running to flip both House seats.
Democrat Kristie O’Brien, an attorney, will have to overcome Willoughby’s name recognition in the Senate race.
After Republican Rep. Chris Lopez ousted former Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman in the Republican-leaning district in 2024, Democrats want a House seat back this year.
Lopez and his Republican seatmate, Rep. Teresa Martinez, will face a single-shot attempt from Democrat Julia Gusse, an Air Force veteran and former Maricopa City Council member.
Longtime Republican Sen. TJ Shope also has a Democratic challenger, but Sundareshan acknowledged Democrats have a clearer opening in the House than against an entrenched GOP senator.
LD17 is one of the state’s few split districts, and both parties want the same thing: full control of the district’s House seats.
Democratic Rep. Kevin Volk was one of the left’s rare success stories in 2024, when he ousted a GOP incumbent.
Republican John Winchester, a government relations manager at ASU, is running alongside Republican Rep. Rachel Keshel to oust Volk. And Democrat Holly Lyon, an Air Force veteran and former math teacher, is running with Volk to take Keshel’s spot.
The race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Vince Leach has already gotten messy — two Republicans are competing for the nomination, and one is embroiled in child abuse allegations.
That Senate seat is a tougher target for Democrats. LD17 has a large enough Republican advantage that the redistricting commission doesn’t consider it competitive, but Democrats are still taking a shot with Edgar Soto, a vice president at Pima Community College.
LD23 gave Republicans a single-shot success story when Republican Rep. Michele Peña won House seats in the last two elections in what was supposed to be a relatively safe district for Democrats after redistricting.
Now, unseating Peña represents one of Democrats’ best chances at gaining a House seat.
And this year, Republicans won’t have that single-shot advantage. Republican Gary Garcia Snyder, a baseball league administrator, is running alongside Peña for the second House seat.
Unlike the GOP duo, Democratic Rep. Mariana Sandoval still has to get through a crowded Democratic primary, where three other Democrats are running for the two House nominations.
Democratic Sen. Brian Fernandez has less to worry about. Republican Michelle Altherr is challenging him again after losing to him by about 6,000 votes in 2024.
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Data centers in the spotlight: Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego signed on to a pact with 40 of her mayoral counterparts across the world that lays out standards for data center regulations in urban areas, the Associated Press reports. The non-binding agreement was initiated after Gallego and the mayor of Melbourne, Australia, came together to discuss concerns, and the resulting pact’s guidelines are renewable energy, water usage and construction on abandoned or underutilized land. Meanwhile, the New York Times named Chandler teenager Katheryn Chan as a winner of its open letter contest for her critique of data center construction, which she addressed to former U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Nice work, Katheryn!
“I don’t want to spend my childhood fighting for the right to exist. I want to go to the University of Arizona, become a doctor, and stay in the place I’ve always called home. But every time a new data center is approved, my future — our future — slowly disintegrates,” Chan wrote.
Developments in Scottsdale: Since it receives about 70% of its water from the increasingly dry Colorado River, the City of Scottsdale is looking for new water sources as it braces for cuts, KTAR’s Heidi Hommel reports. While Mayor Lisa Borowsky said the city is in good shape because it stores about 20% of its Colorado River allocation, the council is considering purchasing 15,000 acre-feet of water for $8.25 million from a groundwater facility in the Harquahala Valley. And the Scottsdale Independent’s John Graber reports on a few of the PACs and special interest groups who are working to sway this year’s city council election, including Better Together, which conservative Councilman Barry Graham points out is connected to another PAC that has received more than $600,000 from Axon.
No. 1 in hunger: Arizona’s demand for food pantries surpassed SNAP enrollment in April as the state has halved the number of people enrolled in the food stamp program since July of last year, when new federal restrictions took effect, per Reuters. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that, as we reported in April, Arizona has been hit harder than any other state by SNAP cuts after quickly moving to adopt new federal rules. The decline makes Arizona a bellwether for SNAP nationwide, because as more states adopt the federal policies, they’re likely to see similar cuts and increased reliance on food banks.
Supporting local food banks is as important as ever, but so is supporting local journalism so we can keep tabs on your elected officials’ decisions.
Get it together, guys: Amid the ongoing legal battle between Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap and the Board of Supervisors, Gov. Katie Hobbs is weighing in and saying the parties need to focus on the upcoming primary election, KTAR’s David Iverson reports. While early voting has already begun, the governor said she’s making her own administrative resources available to ensure that “Arizonans who are eligible are able to participate to the fullest extent in both the upcoming primary.”
Desert diplomacy: A Taiwanese delegation led by the island nation’s legislative leader, Han Kuo-yu, visited Phoenix this week to expand ties beyond semiconductor manufacturing, KJZZ’s Greg Hahne reports. Vice Mayor Kesha Hodge Washington said the visit focused on “bioscience, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and healthcare innovation” after the city started collaborating with a Taiwanese health research firm in October.
Last night, we got our popcorn ready for a congressional Republican primary debate between former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely and former Rep. Joseph Chaplik, who are vying to replace Congressman David Schweikert.
Oh yeah, and former tech CEO John Trobough was there too, actually delivering a fairly impressive performance.
But the debate didn’t disappoint.
That’s partly because each candidate has their weaknesses: MAGA firebrand Chaplik wasn’t endorsed by Trump like Feely and trails in fundraising, but Feely doesn’t even seem to live in the district.
In fact, the first question for Feely was about how he could convince the district’s residents he’ll represent them when he lives in Gilbert.
He didn’t deny that assertion.
“Everything that my wife and I have done in our lives has been, how do I utilize the blessing that God has given me to help others?” Feely responded, sidestepping the question.
Meanwhile, Chaplik spent much of the time speaking as if he was still a state lawmaker, which he is not. He called himself “Rep. Joseph Chaplik,” said several times he served six years at the Legislature, talked far more about state policy than federal policy, and at one point started defending his record by saying, “Here in the Capitol…”
The tension between the two main candidates, which has been thick online, only boiled over once when Chaplik accused the former kicker of supporting a PAC that made signs with an AI-generated picture of Chaplik.
While the two were engaged in a back-and-forth, Trobough took the opportunity to talk about artificial intelligence like an adult, rising above the bluster.
But one thing Trobough said about securing Arizona’s water rights struck us as a little strange.
“This is a national security issue. You cannot ask us to be the epicenter and gateway to the global economy and then turn around and not give us the water that we need to grow our economy and fuel our neighborhoods,” Trobough said. “We have a choice and we have an opportunity: We can be the gateway to the global economy for the world, or we can be the bachelorette party capital of the world — I actually prefer the latter.”
Well shucks, can’t we have both?
Next time we’re in Old Town Scottsdale, we’ll be sure to keep our eyes peeled for Trobough yukking it up with all those nice ladies.