Bet on change

With politicians, it’s always a gamble … Democrats winning except in numbers … And Lake breaks character.

Morning readers!

Today, we’re taking bets on the 2026 elections.

Well, not really. That would be illegal. But we’ll be telling you all about what the election prediction markets say about Arizona’s races so far.

Speaking of risky wagers, the Agenda’s future is always one big gamble.

Please bet on local independent news by putting your money into this journalism slot machine.

With Arizona’s 2025 local election cycle officially behind us, we can finally turn our attention to the next big thing — the 2026 midterms.

No, we’re not going to review the candidates’ finances or sort through the crapshoot of polling to try to figure out who’s winning the horse races a year ahead of the election.

There’s actually a far better, and more interesting metric: The odds given by political bookies.

Betting on elections is illegal in Arizona.

So we would never formally recommend that you access one of the many sportsbetting-like websites that offer the ability to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to state politics.

But the site with the best local options is Kalshi. It’s legal at the federal level, since it’s regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as an “event contract” business — technically, you’re buying a contract for an event that will pay out if said event happens.

The event is usually your candidate winning the election. Clever, huh?

You don’t even have to wait for the election to cash in.

Say you buy a contract for Republicans to win the attorney general’s race next year. And then Kris Mayes drops out and suddenly it seems far more likely that Republicans win. You can sell that contract immediately for more than you paid for it.

So it really operates more like a stock market than a sports betting market.

And like corporate stocks, the stock price for candidates or outcomes is constantly shifting with the news cycles.

Last year was the first year that Kalshi was operational, though it has had many predecessors operating in the gray area of federal law. (Shoutout to the OG election gambling website Predictit.org.)

And Kalshi’s market accurately predicted (more or less) Donald Trump’s victory in Arizona last year, Juan Ciscomani’s razor-thin victory in Southern Arizona’s Congressional District 6, David Schweikert’s narrow victory in CD1 and Ruben Gallego’s win over Kari Lake for the U.S. Senate.

That’s more than we can say for most pollsters.

But before we dive into what the markets are predicting for 2026, let’s do a little walk-through of how this all works.

When will Adelita Grijalva finally get sworn in?

The markets have already busted on this one several times.

Original bets included before October 11, 15, 18, 22, 25, 29, and before November 1. Anyone who bet on one of those dates lost all their money.

The only options left are November 15, November 30 and January 1, 2026.

So if we bought November 15 for 59 cents and she gets sworn in on November 14, we’d get paid a buck. Not a bad return on investment. Or we could play it safe and bet that she’ll get sworn in before January 1 for 93 cents and get back a buck if Congress acts before then.

We could also bet against these deadlines.

If we believe Congress won’t act until January 2, we can bet 14 cents on that outcome. If we’re right, it’s an additional 86 cents in our pocket. That’s a more than 600% profit on that gamble! (And yes, this whole system is ripe for potential insider trading — House Speaker Mike Johnson could make a killing betting on this one, which, as far as we can tell, isn’t even illegal, though it is against Kalshi’s rules.)

Basically, the price is based on the likelihood of the outcome. It’s the same for political races.

If a candidate seems unlikely to win, then their stocks are cheaper.

If they’re a slam dunk to win, their stock will be more expensive.

Studying the markets

Now that you understand how this works, what can we glean about the 2026 election in Arizona by studying the markets?

People are betting on Democrats to win, so their stocks are high.

As of Wednesday morning, Arizona Democrats’ stocks are trading between 58 cents and 75 cents, depending on the race. In Southern Arizona’s CD6, for example, you can bet on Ciscomani winning reelection for 42 cents. Or you can bet that whoever the Democratic nominee is will win for 58 cents. If you’re right, you get a buck, no matter who you bet on.

There’s a bigger upside if Ciscomani wins — because the market thinks it’s less likely to happen.

The market for the open seat in CD1 is also optimistic for Democrats. Stock in Democrats winning was trading at 64 cents on Wednesday, compared to 40 cents for Republicans.

The governor’s race has a similar margin. If you wanna bet on Katie Hobbs to win reelection, it’ll cost you 64 cents as of yesterday. You could bet on Republicans for just 40 cents.

And that’s after those margins have narrowed in the last month.

The markets are equally bullish on Mayes’ reelection as attorney general. Her stock was trading at 68 cents on Wednesday.

The cheapest statewide bet is on Republicans to win the Secretary of State’s Office. And in that case, the market definitely reflects the perception on the ground — few politicos would buy stock in Alexander Kolodin’s campaign at this point, even at the bargain price of 32 cents.

But the markets aren’t blindly liberal.

In Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane’s CD2, the market’s view of Democrats is much poorer. For just 22 cents, you could bet on Democrats to unseat the incumbent. Betting on Crane to win would cost 81 cents.

Bear and bull markets

You can also bet on the outcome of inner-party squabbles, like the GOP primary for governor.

And in that case, the markets once again reflect the perception on the ground.

Even though she has a co-endorsement from Trump and loads of cash, few people are betting their hard-earned money on Karrin Taylor Robson to beat Andy Biggs in the gubernatorial primary.

Biggs’ stock is trading at 64 cents, to Robson’s 18-cent stock.

And one of the cool things about the political predictions market is that — unlike with polls — you can watch politicians’ stocks rise or fall instantly.

On Monday morning, stock in former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb winning the GOP primary in CD5 was worth about a quarter. By day’s end, it was up to 80 cents.

What caused this massive spike in his fortune? Trump endorsed Lamb on Monday.

Eyes on the horizon: National Democrats had a good night on Tuesday, but their political future in Arizona is losing some of its luster. Despite Trump’s low approval ratings, Democrats in Arizona have added just 4,000 new registered voters since the November 2024 election, while the Arizona GOP added 35,000, the Republic’s Amanda Luberto reports. Democratic strategist Maria Cardona says “we fell asleep at the switch” as she looks at her party’s ground game a year out from the 2026 election.

Precarious position: The federal government shutdown is now the longest on record, per the Associated Press. That’s particularly bad news for schools that depend on federal funding, like those at the Chinle Unified School District on the Navajo Nation that get half their annual funding from the federal program known as Impact Aid. Unlike most school districts, Chinle is on reservation land that’s controlled by the federal government, which means officials can’t legally levy property taxes to fund schools.

Ghost towns: Now that migration from South America to the U.S. has quieted down, the small towns along that way that made money from migrants passing by are struggling, Daniel Gonzalez reports in the latest installment of the Republic’s immigration series. The residents of Bajo Chiquito, a tiny village in the jungles of Panama, watched 82,000 migrants pass through the area in August 2023. Two years later, it was just seven.

Sticks and stones: The conservative activist group Judicial Watch sued Gov. Katie Hobbs, claiming statements she made after Trump was elected show she is violating a state law that blocks officials from trying to hinder federal immigration enforcement, per Capitol scribe Howie Fischer. There is no evidence that Hobbs is blocking federal law enforcement. The statements in question came when Hobbs was at the border a week after the election. She said Arizona wouldn’t take part in “misguided policies that harm our communities,” which, along with a few other comments, was enough for Judicial Watch to try to raise a stink.

Ms. Mayes goes to Washington: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes was in Washington, D.C., yesterday to watch oral arguments in the U.S. Supreme Court case she joined challenging Trump’s tariff policy, the Republic’s Stacey Barchenger reports. Mayes has sued Trump 30 times since January, but she said the tariffs lawsuit is among the most important. Yesterday, even conservative Supreme Court Justices seemed skeptical of Trump’s constitutional authority to impose tariffs.

We aren’t going to Washington. We’re staying right here, so you should too.

In other, other news

A stray bullet hit an airplane used for ICE deportations during a shootout between Mesa police and a suspect at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport (Jerod MacDonald-Evoy / AZMirror) … Tucson Electric Power opened a $350 million battery energy storage system (KVOA) … Maricopa County landlords have filed almost 71,000 eviction cases in 2025 (Balin Overstolz McNair / KTAR) … The president of Mexico said she will not allow U.S. troops to enter Mexico, despite rumors from the Trump administration (Nina Kravinsky / KJZZ) … And three young men will be charged under “Preston’s Law” after they attacked a man on ASU’s campus (Miguel Torres / Republic).

In a historic first for Democrats, Kari Lake believes they won in some places.

Lake tweeted an acknowledgment of the wins made by Democrats in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Her post was described as “🚨🚨BREAKING🚨🚨” by ABC15’s Garrett Archer.