Well. I have a deal with myself that I will add at least a short comment when there is an article displaying horse race style comparisons of money for campaign committees (so that I can say I am contractually obligated).
Hank and Nicole have properly prefaced the comparisons with the appropriate comment "while money isn't everything, it sure does help." True, both parts. But as long as a pair of competitors each have "enough" (hard to define, but you get the idea), seeing which one has more $ tells you next to nothing about who will win. It turns out that if you remove non-competitive races from the statistics (in those landslide cases, the winner almost always has a lot more money), there is very little correlation between the winner of the money race and the winner of the ACTUAL race.
So, sure, if you don't raise enough money to pursue the needs of a campaign, your chances are minimal. But if you can pay for 8 direct mailers and your opponent can send 12, it probably doesn't matter. Other factors (name recognition, ground game, and whether you've recently been indicted) are probably more important.
One more thing: another fundraising number that might be more reflective of donor interest is the number of unique donors. I live in CD1 so I tend to be more interested in that race, and the Dems you showed there (not to diminish the potential of others - I currently have no "horse" in this race) had this number of donors: Treble, 286; Galan-Woods, 388; and Shah, 239. Still early for all of these folks.
I live in CD-1. Funny you did not list the other Democratic candidates and note when they entered the race. For instance Mark Robert Gordon entered in July and right off issued a release he had raised over $100,000 but without you including here not clear where he ended the quarter. Also when there are candidates largely relying on self-financing that is generally reported. How much of Treble's total came from others?
It is worth noting that Treble’s fundraising includes $1 million from himself. $678K individual contributors. Which is less than the others in the top 3. I am curious how deep his pockets are.
Well. I have a deal with myself that I will add at least a short comment when there is an article displaying horse race style comparisons of money for campaign committees (so that I can say I am contractually obligated).
Hank and Nicole have properly prefaced the comparisons with the appropriate comment "while money isn't everything, it sure does help." True, both parts. But as long as a pair of competitors each have "enough" (hard to define, but you get the idea), seeing which one has more $ tells you next to nothing about who will win. It turns out that if you remove non-competitive races from the statistics (in those landslide cases, the winner almost always has a lot more money), there is very little correlation between the winner of the money race and the winner of the ACTUAL race.
So, sure, if you don't raise enough money to pursue the needs of a campaign, your chances are minimal. But if you can pay for 8 direct mailers and your opponent can send 12, it probably doesn't matter. Other factors (name recognition, ground game, and whether you've recently been indicted) are probably more important.
And in this case, Juan is very good looking.
One more thing: another fundraising number that might be more reflective of donor interest is the number of unique donors. I live in CD1 so I tend to be more interested in that race, and the Dems you showed there (not to diminish the potential of others - I currently have no "horse" in this race) had this number of donors: Treble, 286; Galan-Woods, 388; and Shah, 239. Still early for all of these folks.
Mendoza lost to State Senator Vince Leach. Money is an asset but she is not a good candidate.
I live in CD-1. Funny you did not list the other Democratic candidates and note when they entered the race. For instance Mark Robert Gordon entered in July and right off issued a release he had raised over $100,000 but without you including here not clear where he ended the quarter. Also when there are candidates largely relying on self-financing that is generally reported. How much of Treble's total came from others?
It is worth noting that Treble’s fundraising includes $1 million from himself. $678K individual contributors. Which is less than the others in the top 3. I am curious how deep his pockets are.