Cheat sheet: Arizona's competitive congressional races
We've got the lowdown on the congressional races that matter.
Some of the country’s most competitive congressional races are — you guessed it — right here in Arizona.
After redistricting, several of the state’s nine U.S. House of Representatives seats grew more competitive for incumbents. National parties and outside groups, on both sides of the aisle, are targeting them as potential pick-ups.
While the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters has rightfully gotten most of the attention and spending for this year’s federal races in Arizona, these four competitive House races deserve some consideration, too.
New districts after once-a-decade map drawing can mean some unexpected upsets. And Democrats need to defend their seats as Republicans race to try to win back control of the House.
If you missed last week’s edition, we focused on the Arizona Legislature’s hot races. And since you all seemed to like that so much, we’re back with another cheat sheet to the hot congressional districts.
A caveat: We don’t use exact fundraising figures in this cheat sheet because they’re always out of date, and with early voting starting shortly, every day of spending can have an impact.
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Congressional District 1: Schweikert vs. Hodge
Where is it: The district covers the northeast part of the Valley, including the wealthier parts, like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek. It also houses two tribal nations, the Salt River Reservation and the Fort McDowell Yavapai National Reservation.
Kinda looks like: A dinosaur eating an apple
Predecessor district: Mostly the old CD6, but more Democratic
Candidates:
Democrat: Jevin Hodge, the president of Booker T. Washington Child Development Center who narrowly lost a Maricopa County Board of Supervisors election in 2020
Republican: David Schweikert, the conservative six-time representative who loves a good chart
The voters: Republicans have a 2.6% edge in voter registration in the new district, making it highly competitive. In the nine competitive races that the Independent Redistricting Commission tracked, Republicans won five. Despite that Republican edge, though, the district narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and is home to the coveted crossover voters that backed Republican Gov. Doug Ducey-Democratic U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2018.
Who has the money?: The two candidates are relatively closely matched on fundraising, with Hodge having a bit more cash on hand. The Trump-endorsed Schweikert has benefitted from outside spending to support his campaign with canvassing, mailers and other marketing, while Hodge has had some outside spending against him. Both candidates had contested primaries, which took some of their spending.
Analysis: Schweikert faced a bruising primary this year against Republican Elijah Norton, during which Schweikert implied Norton was gay and attacked his business, ultimately resulting in Norton suing Schweikert. Schweikert’s $125,000 fine by the Federal Elections Commission over misuse of campaign funds is an easy point of attack for anyone running against him (Hodge repeatedly calls Schweikert “corrupt" while campaigning). Republican voters during the primary heard a ton from Schweikert’s opponents about his vulnerabilities, too, which could help soften him up for Hodge.
But while Schweikert has seemed vulnerable in previous elections, he’s still managed to hold the seat by focusing on financial issues over culture wars and not going too deep into MAGAism for his wealthy suburban voters. This year, though, the district got a shade bluer and Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, among the most competitive in the country.
Still, Schweikert has put in six terms representing the area, and without a lot of outside support, it’ll be tough for newcomer Hodge to topple an incumbent.
Bottom line: This district could be up for grabs this cycle, but Democrats seem more focused on defending their competitive seats in other parts of the state.
Congressional District 2: O’Halleran vs. Crane
Where is it: This humongous district touches nine of Arizona’s 15 counties and encompasses more small towns than any other. It runs from Four Corners across the entire Arizona portion of the Navajo Nation and the Grand Canyon, to the mouth of the Colorado River below Lake Mead about 20 miles from the Nevada border, from Flagstaff and Prescott through eastern Arizona all the way to Casa Grande, surrounding the Valley.
Kinda looks like: A rhinoceros chomping down on the Valley
Predecessor district: CD1, but the new district got slightly more Republican
Candidates:
Democrat: Tom O’Halleran, a former Republican state lawmaker who has represented the area in Congress since 2016
Republican: Eli Crane, a former U.S. Navy Seal and owner of a small business that makes bottle openers out of bullets and replica hand grenades with slogans like “Let’s go Brandon”
The voters: CD2 has the largest Native American population of any district in the state, by a longshot. Roughly 20% of the district is Native American, mostly hailing from the Navajo Nation, though the district also includes at least part of 14 different Native American tribes. Another more than 20% is Hispanic, Black or Pacific Islander, while about 55% are white. But overall, voters here lean Republican. And Republicans won all of the nine races that the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission used to evaluate competitiveness, including both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Who has the money?: As an incumbent, O’Halleran has better access to the donor class than Crane. And while Crane’s fundraising has been respectable, he seriously depleted his war chest in the heated Republican primary. Still, Crane is being buoyed by outside groups like the National Republican Campaign Committee, which dropped more than $1.5 million into his race in September. O’Halleran, meanwhile, is less-than-thrilled that national Democrats haven’t swooped in to help defend him.
Analysis: O’Halleran was dubbed “the most vulnerable incumbent in the country” in this newly redrawn district, which is technically just outside the realm of “competitive” according to the IRC’s metrics. But don’t write off O’Halleran just yet. National observers have recently shifted his race from the “likely Republican” column to “leans Republican” as Crane has failed to fully capitalize on the new district’s more Republican bent. Even Crane’s own internal polling showed him just narrowly ahead of O’Halleran, well within the poll’s margin of error.
Still, while O’Halleran has spent the last few election cycles beating the odds and overcoming his Republican challengers, this year’s race will be his most difficult.
His prospects will largely hinge on whether Republicans can successfully tie him to Biden and whether rural conservative independents believe Crane will be able to deliver concrete results to the district, which is largely dependent on federal funding for infrastructure projects and land management. Native American voter turnout also will play heavily into O’Halleran’s prospects.
But don’t expect Crane’s propensity toward Trumpism — including his pronouncements that the Arizona Legislature should decertify the 2020 presidential election — to hurt him much with the district’s Republican and independent voters. Trump, who has endorsed Crane, won here in both his 2016 election and his failed 2020 re-election bid. (In O’Halleran’s old district, Trump won his 2016 bid but lost the area in 2020.)
O’Halleran, on the other hand, is a former cop who voted to impeach Trump twice. The incumbent has been able to hold onto the seat by emphasizing his independence from national Democrats, his ability to reach across the aisle to cut deals that benefit his area and his deep knowledge of the communities that make up the district and the issues that they face, like water, wildfires and land use.
Bottom Line: O’Halleran is still considered the underdog, though not by as much as expected.
Congressional District 4: Stanton vs. Cooper
Where is it: The suburban district includes parts of Tempe, Mesa and Chandler.
Kinda looks like: A bat, just in time for Halloween
Predecessor district: Formerly CD9, but with more Republicans now
Candidates:
Democrat: Greg Stanton, the former Phoenix mayor and current representative for the area
Republican: Kelly Cooper, a Marine Corps veteran and restaurant owner
The voters: Democrats have a 7% voter registration advantage in this new district. And in the nine races modeled by the IRC, Democrats won all but one of them. Voters in the area backed both Ducey in 2018 and Biden in 2020.
Who has the money?: Stanton has a clear advantage on money. He’s raised more than $3 million this cycle, while Cooper has raised about half that — but the majority of Cooper’s contributions came in the form of a loan to himself. The House Majority PAC has spent a bit to boost Stanton, while it has spent a lot more to oppose Cooper. DCCC is spending to oppose Cooper, too. Cooper also had to spend on a crowded primary, unlike Stanton.
Analysis: While the race is competitive, Stanton has the edge with incumbency and voter registration in the district. Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Democrat.”
But Cooper pulled off an upset in the primary. The MAGA candidate and political newcomer managed to beat the expected winner, Tanya Contreras Wheeless, a former Martha McSally staffer. Cooper has endorsements from Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and others in the Trump world. If MAGA candidates fare well statewide, he could see a boost.
Still, this district is Democratic-leaning, with more moderate voters. A MAGA candidate may not have appeal in the general election. And with tides shifting away from it being a Republican wave year, the odds aren’t on Cooper’s side.
Bottom line: Stanton should pull this one off and win a third term.
Congressional District 6: Ciscomani vs. Engel
Where is it: In southeastern Arizona, CD6 stretches from along the borders with New Mexico and Mexico (excluding the liberal enclave of Bisbee and border town of Douglas), through Green Valley and the eastern edge of Tucson, including Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, along Interstate 10 to Casa Grande in the west, through most of Graham County and all of Greenlee County in the east.
Kinda looks like: We’re going with a ghost
Predecessor district: CD2, but the new district is more Republican
Candidates:
Democrat: Kirsten Engel, an environmental law professor at the University of Arizona and a former Democratic state lawmaker
Republican: Juan Ciscomani, a senior adviser on international affairs to Ducey and former vice chair of the Arizona-Mexico Commission, which deals with border security and trade with Mexico
The voters: CD6 is a “highly competitive” Republican-leaning district, and voters there have backed both Republicans and Democrats in the past. They backed Trump in 2016, for example, but voted narrowly against him in 2020. In 2018, they voted for their local congresswoman, Republican Martha McSally, for the U.S. Senate over Kyrsten Sinema. But in 2020, they backed Democrat Mark Kelly over McSally. About 20% of voters in this border district are Latino.
Who has the money?: Ciscomani led fundraising through the primary. But both had to burn through their war chests to win their primaries. Americans for Prosperity has swooped in since the primary to boost Ciscomani, while the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent some money to bash Engel.
Analysis: Ciscomani’s campaign is fueled by Team Ducey, and he’s one of the few non-MAGA Republicans to win a contested primary in Arizona. His background in border issues — including the trade and commerce aspect — make him a good fit for the district. But to win over the district’s independents and swing voters, he’ll have to distance himself from his party’s extremist elements in a year where statewide Republicans mostly nominated far-right candidates.
And with abortion surging to the top of many voters’ minds, his goal is to distract from his own pro-life positions (his website doesn’t offer any of his policies on the topic, stating only that that he is “pro-life” and has six kids) by attempting to paint Engel as so far to the left, she’s out of touch — dangerous even. His campaign is hammering Engel as “not a normal Democrat,” but a “Pelosi puppet” and extremist. Republicans are also trying to paint her as a hardcore environmentalist who wants to make it “a pain” to drive.
But Engel’s background in environmental law is a big asset in an area with huge swaths of the Sonoran Desert, where mining and border fence construction animates a considerable conservationist vote. And of course, all of Engel’s ads feature her teenage daughter as a reminder that Engel is fighting for the future of abortion rights in a state that just imposed one of the strictest anti-abortion laws in the country. The district is also home to may of Tucson’s upscale suburbs, where abortion rights could be a major factor driving independent women to the polls against Republicans.
Bottom line: There’s no reason either candidate can’t win the district in this nearly evenly split district, and the race remains a pure toss-up.
Great work, thank you so much! I especially like the map characters 😄
Great analysis, and the illustrations were such a nice touch.